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JA Solar (JASO)

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CN Solar's are not really investable, WS Banks will be hanging around like Buzzards and will continue to keep them undervalued and when they get to the debt to equity ratio JA Solar was at they'll be all over them to Privatize. I still think will see them go higher in H2 but they'll distort reasoning to bring them back down to meet their ultimate goal to make the most of their money,

That's a bold statement to say other CN3 aren't investable. Sorry disagree with that 100%. You think CSIQ will be below all time highs when Yieldco is launched? I don't.

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That's a bold statement to say other CN3 aren't investable. Sorry disagree with that 100%. You think CSIQ will be below all time highs when Yieldco is launched? I don't.

Qu I believe is an honorable man can't say that about JA Solar's chairman. If Qu were to ever Privatize I believe he would be fair to shareholders and I do think CSIQ is one of the Best Company's.

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If Qu were to ever Privatize I believe he would be fair to shareholders 

 

I wouldn't be so sure July. Not saying the recent pressure is anything to do with CSIQ being taken private but does anyone think it a bit odd Qu banging on in the investors day about the disparity between valuation on different exchanges? Then less than a month later JASO enforces this view, along with 5 other non solar companies doing the same. CSIQ is off 20%+ from recent highs, for what, secondary, where is it?

 

Seriously, if you wanted to take your company private wouldn't you want to get it as cheap as possible? I know I would. To think companies give a chit about share holders sticks in the throat a bit.  

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I wouldn't be so sure July. Not saying the recent pressure is anything to do with CSIQ being taken private but does anyone think it a bit odd Qu banging on in the investors day about the disparity between valuation on different exchanges? Then less than a month later JASO enforces this view, along with 5 other non solar companies doing the same. CSIQ is off 20%+ from recent highs, for what, secondary, where is it?

Seriously, if you wanted to take your company private wouldn't you want to get it as cheap as possible? I know I would. To think companies give a chit about share holders sticks in the throat a bit.

If he decided to take CSIQ private....gulp.

Cant stand the thought....

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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I wouldn't be so sure July. Not saying the recent pressure is anything to do with CSIQ being taken private but does anyone think it a bit odd Qu banging on in the investors day about the disparity between valuation on different exchanges? Then less than a month later JASO enforces this view, along with 5 other non solar companies doing the same. CSIQ is off 20%+ from recent highs, for what, secondary, where is it?

Seriously, if you wanted to take your company private wouldn't you want to get it as cheap as possible? I know I would. To think companies give a chit about share holders sticks in the throat a bit.

At least Qu is letting it known and saying something about it out loud. I did listen to an Investor Day CC perhaps not the the latest Investor conference where their IR guy Ed spoke about valuations and brought up SPWR as a comparison, that was the Investor day after freak Gordo called it the Best Short. JA never said anything out loud about this unfair treatment, I think they decided to leave a long time ago. Maybe Ed Job could be talked into reporting this undeserving kind of pressure to the SEC. There is a big difference in CSIQ IR Department when you compare IR relations of other CN Solar's.

Personally I think the WS Bankers have crossed over into criminal activity in many angles with what's going on. I think they even have discussion before privatization is announced to some how pull back on the numbers. Pressuring a Company in hopes they will want to leave by keeping their stock down and getting unethical analysts to write twisted stories where every sentence is a fabrication so they put pressure on Companies to want to leave so WS can benefit in the Privatization and collecting fees and later assist in their IPO's when they relist. This is hurting Investors and hurts these Companies All this evil has already began to come back to stab them cause there is a remarkably lower difference in IPOs with Chinese Companies in the US. Long term I don't think its a good idea to run them off but when greed begins it can come with no boundaries.

PWRD since announcing to go Private Proposal and the deal is not sealed has not reported their Q4 2014 or Q1 2015 yet since. That seems really odd. Perhaps they just Back ended all that revenue into Q4 with the direction from Folsun International their largest shareholder. It seems though it would be mandatory to continue reporting your earnings as long as you are still listed on the Exchange and especially if you are trying to get shareholders to succumb to your proposal.

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They all act like this when a proposal is first announced with the Chinese Companies, really the scenario is not any different other than JA Solar takes the cake of being on all metrics of this Buy Out price as being unfair. Just because others had an okay day doesn't take away that anytime they'll do the same.

Another gaming stock today proposed to go Private at a lower prices than what they traded for on "Friday"" at $14.56. DSKY made a proposal to go private at $14.

The stock only IPO'd 10 months ago at $15. What's going on is some serious Chet.

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Odyd, I don't see how CN3 would benefit from JA getting even more financially strong by pulling in a fresh billion in equity on a Shanghai IPO. Personally I'm left with very few options to invest in this industry if JA delists. CN3 is not attractive to me here.

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I believe that investors in the US will celebrate fewer choices. To me being global is being on the US markets. JA listing on Chinese market means nothing to me. I am not planning to buy stock there. 

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Thank you Zendoc.

I hope that at the end everyone will be happy with JA holdings and perhaps despite my opinion someone will take the company to new heights. On the other hand if this offer goes dry, things could turn worse. I would think I seen everything, but certainly not in our end of the woods.

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I believe that investors in the US will celebrate fewer choices. To me being global is being on the US markets. JA listing on Chinese market means nothing to me. I am not planning to buy stock there.

I mean how is more competition good for CN3? Just because GCL is not listed in US does not mean it's not influencing the industry, CN3 and competitive space for US listed DQ, right? I prefer less (company) competition and more (stock) choices. Obviously JASO would not be much of a choice for many if listed in Shanghai since it would be less tradeable in west and much more expensive to own.

With global company I refer to markets of operations and sales of the company not nation of stock listing.

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I'm not buying that JA Solar's Book value is some sort of mirage. The only way any CN Company gets the Financing needed to go Private before re-listing is to pass an analysis test set up by Banks and Private Equity Firms. In fact Banks and PE Firms have a list already made of which CN Companies are Good candidates to help Privatize. Bank & PE Firms are encouraged to provide equity to finance the path so they can re- list CN Companies at double to triple the value placed here but at the same time these investments made must have safety nets low debt to equity stands out in all the CN Companies that have made proposal to go Private.

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I mean how is more competition good for CN3? Just because GCL is not listed in US does not mean it's not influencing the industry, CN3 and competitive space for US listed DQ, right? I prefer less (company) competition and more (stock) choices. Obviously JASO would not be much of a choice for many if listed in Shanghai since it would be less tradeable in west and much more expensive to own.

With global company I refer to markets of operations and sales of the company not nation of stock listing.

Explo,

I think you are confusing my statement. I did not say that JA not being listed will reduce competition. I said that consolidating solar industry offering fewer choices on the US exchanges is good for those choices that are left. In the sum of solar investors in the US, I imagine more people will be attracted to the three now. This is good. If JA lists in Shanghai maybe it will be an eye opener to appreciate those left a bit more, but at the end will be a evidence that the company has done nothing for and probably some things against own shareholders in the US, to satisfy appetite to make money for the executive membership..

At the end is Jin someone who you trust with your money seeing this conclusion? I rather have companies operating under this scheme gone than staining rest by association.

 

How come three other companies managed gain what it seems such comparable field. You do not think there is something going on, which we rant about for years since May 2013?

 

Global has many meanings, they way I used it meaning of prestige. Overall US markets represent global gathering of the best of the best in each industry. This is the way I see it , event if they have aberrations like DQ, another shell of someone's interests and not investment vehicle for the avergae long-term view. That is another "mine" being set for the unaware, in my opinion.

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I said that consolidating solar industry offering fewer choices on the US exchanges is good for those choices that are left.

 

 

Ok I'll pose the delist and prop up scenario more from your perspective. What if CN3 delists and are propped up with billions in funds to wipe out competition in the process and JASO remains? Good for JASO stock as it is only investable CN solar options left on US stock exchanges, but not good for us solar investors who wants choice. We might not like JASO company or stock or the fact that delisted competitors get so much fund propping advantage that they'll take JASO's cake, but we are forced to this one if we want to invest in CN solar. Sweet or bitter?

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Ok I'll pose the delist and prop up scenario more from your perspective. What if CN3 delists and are propped up with billions in funds to wipe out competition in the process and JASO remains? Good for JASO stock as it is only investable CN solar options left on US stock exchanges, but not good for us solar investors who wants choice. We might not like JASO company or stock or the fact that delisted competitors get so much fund propping advantage that they'll take JASO's cake, but we are forced to this one if we want to invest in CN solar. Sweet or bitter?

What if Jin played the flute while doing a head stand? Will he win America has a Talent?

When we get there I will be able provide you with more clarity, even so if JA was the only stock left, I would not buy it.

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even so if JA was the only stock left, I would not buy it.

 

Exactly. Now you see my perspective. Less choice. Forced to leave the sector.

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Exactly. Now you see my perspective. Less choice. Forced to leave the sector.

I would buy US company at that point if it had a value. To me all three individually have more value than JA and based on the today's dynamic two US companies have more value than JA. I think I still believe the best companies are the ones to lead the industry and the US exchange will offer access to them. If not I will not invest in solar, that is not a must game.

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I would buy US company at that point if it had a value.

 

Same here. I will leave "sector" CN solar and likely buy other solar instead.

 

Of course CN3 and two US solars have more value than JA, but they are still less price worthy. I'm not willing to take the risk of paying very high prices in this sector.

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Same here. I will leave "sector" CN solar and likely buy other solar instead.

Of course CN3 and two US solars have more value than JA, but they are still less price worthy. I'm not willing to take the risk of paying very high prices in this sector.

Interesting you think the other CN3 are at "very high" prices right now.

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Interesting you think the other CN3 are at "very high" prices right now.

 

Not extreme, but way above JASO. I liked CSIQ and JKS when they dipped to the teens and TSL to the 8's (that's when I replaced JASO shares for them), but think the risk is high here. On JASO I don't see the same risk as there is a fundamental undervaluation, which is not the case for CN3 or US solar. CN3 and US solar are not overvalued either and could motivate higher valuation too if things go well, but there's less buffer/potential in those names at this point in my view. CSIQ and FSLR are getting more attractive than the other 3 though. The weaker the stock the more I like it as usual (because future stock strength is facilitated by past weakness and I care about future not past strength).

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Not extreme, but way above JASO. I liked CSIQ and JKS when they dipped to the teens and TSL to the 8's (that's when I replaced JASO shares for them), but think the risk is high here. On JASO I don't see the same risk as there is a fundamental undervaluation, which is not the case for CN3 or US solar. CN3 and US solar are not overvalued either and could motivate higher valuation too if things go well, but there's less buffer/potential in those names at this point in my view. CSIQ and FSLR are getting more attractive than the other 3 though. The weaker the stock the more I like it as usual (because future stock strength is facilitated by past weakness and I care about future not past strength).

I agree that CN3 and US2 are relatively high risk to initiate a full position at current levels not per say, but only in current market. However, I do not recall you switching from JA to CSIQ/JKS in teens (in January) and I certainly do not recall you switching to TSL from JA in high 7's (not mentioning 8's) in December when I specifically asked you why you're not doing so. There's no point going back and forth on who was right/made right moves in December of 2014 and January of 2015, since market decided it all for us.

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I agree that CN3 and US2 are relatively high risk to initiate a full position at current levels not per say, but only in current market. However, I do not recall you switching from JA to CSIQ/JKS in teens (in January) and I certainly do not recall you switching to TSL from JA in high 7's (not mentioning 8's) in December when I specifically asked you why you're not doing so. There's no point going back and forth on who was right/made right moves in December of 2014 and January of 2015, since market decided it all for us.

I think I disclosed those moves here:

Jan 15, JKS

Jan 20, CSIQ, DQ, GTE

Jan 21, TSL

Very big moves for me there in January. No moves in December though.

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I recall only DQ, as I was on the same train at that time as well, and only GTE, even though I wasn't. I do not recall CN3 as maybe they were not disclosed or just not updated, but if you saying you were, then you were.

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It's not that JASO sucks, it just doesn't have the growth metrics that the other CN3 do (and mainly CN2).

That's why the market keeps it in check.

PE of 6-12, keeps it in 6.XX-12.XX range from here to eternity.

Until they find a way to really grow profits or EBITA, they're stuck. Sorry

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It's not that JASO sucks, it just doesn't have the growth metrics that the other CN3 do (and mainly CN2).

That's why the market keeps it in check.

PE of 6-12, keeps it in 6.XX-12.XX range from here to eternity.

Until they find a way to really grow profits or EBITA, they're stuck. Sorry

I'm not sure I follow your growth point. Can you list 2014 revenue growth numbers for CN4 to illustrate your point? Not also that analysts expect CSIQ to show no revenue growth coming two years while JASO is expected to grow double digits in both 2015 and 2016 like the other two.

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This is from one of the lates Seeking Alpha articles

I think JA had this planned for awhile to go Private. I think I was saying this back as early as August just didn't suspect they'd try to steal the shares. they don't really talk that much about their Projects at least they left it out in Q1 and they weren't asked about it either. Q4 they did talk about it and acted excited when they did.

On JA Solar's earnings call, analysts seemed to be convinced that JA Solar will struggle to develop 100.0MW~200.0MW of solar projects in 2015. However, according to JA Solar's 20-F SEC filings, the company reported 273.3MW in completed projects, 380.0MW in projects under development and 446.6MW in pipeline projects.

Additionally, JA Solar's valuation seems low given its cash position. The market capitalization is $460.0 million. However, the company held $431.7 million in cash, marketable securities and cash or money market funds held in a bank to secure trade or bank letters of credit. Furthermore, the company's market value of equity is about half of its book value of equity.

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I recall only DQ, as I was on the same train at that time as well, and only GTE, even though I wasn't. I do not recall CN3 as maybe they were not disclosed or just not updated, but if you saying you were, then you were.

They were disclosed in holdings (unfortunately those are not permanent records). Read some of posts around January 20 too, like this one: http://solarpvinvestor.com/community/index.php/topic/32-trading-solars/?p=69432

Not sure why I need to prove I'm telling the truth about which stocks I held when.

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