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odyd

JA Solar (JASO)

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I think JASO with headwinds may visit below 6. I would probably consider a buy to wait for offer to be accepted.

Sent from my SM-G950W using Tapatalk

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Yes, JASO now looks weak again.  So I wonder what that rise in March was all about?  It was sustained, significant, and on heavy volume.  What's changed since then?  Earnings?  Was the March rise a delayed response to the Q4 earnings "surprise"?  But surely it was obvious the Q4 earnings were due to a one-time event.  Q1 was just back to normal, right in line with expectations--nothing negative there (well, nothing any more negative than for any other solar, anyway).  But now JASO is sinking, while CSIQ and JKS are rising again.

So who knows where JASO will go from here....

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8 hours ago, odyd said:

I think JASO with headwinds may visit below 6. I would probably consider a buy to wait for offer to be accepted.

Sent from my SM-G950W using Tapatalk
 

Offer must first be made definite and preferably recommended by the board before it can be put to shareholder vote for acceptance. However the offer is really out of touch with preceding trading range in terms of premium in a way that almost looks as a pretext for the board to decline it saving the chairman the embarressment of having to withdraw it due to his [speculation] failure to raise the funds required.

It's hard to see that changing the offer to $6.80 from $9.60 would make things suddenly move in the direction of an acceptance vote by shareholders.

Trina was different as Gao played it perfectly to time the vote when the price was maybe 50% or more to current market state looking at where peers were trading. JASO offer has no premium what so ever at this time. Maybe the chairman is speculating on a 30% haircut of CSIQ and JKS here which would make the offer much more attractive to shareholders.

Edited by explo
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I think the chairman's  carry on "expect failure" propaganda will induce low JASO price, so when the dust settles and offer firms up for the vote, shareholders will give it up just to cash it without much of the hope. JASO has no premium now but when it sets at 5.50 it will look like a godsend. I am not rooting for this but the guy is clearly twisted and that is his goal. The stock picked in 2013 warrants were issued and price never recovered. I bet he had something to do with it.

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3 minutes ago, odyd said:

I think the chairman's  carry on "expect failure" propaganda will induce low JASO price, so when the dust settles and offer firms up for the vote, shareholders will give it up just to cash it without much of the hope. JASO has no premium now but when it sets at 5.50 it will look like a godsend. I am not rooting for this but the guy is clearly twisted and that is his goal. The stock picked in 2013 warrants were issued and price never recovered. I bet he had something to do with it.

I still think it is hard to convince shareholders to capitulate to this when they the past three years have posted fat (relative to offer price) and nicely growing EPS. If the company did not offer high and quickly growing earning driven by great operational and marketing progress shareholders would be more inclined to let go of their shares. Somebody should make a competing offer here now that the Hemlock lawsuit liability is gone. BV at $20 can be liquidated at discount for a buyer un theory.

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14 hours ago, explo said:

I still think it is hard to convince shareholders to capitulate to this

I certainly hope you're right, and that's why I haven't sold my two small stakes yet.  But I think Odyd's right, too--in the short term, the chairman will do his best to tank the stock, hoping to make his offer price more attractive.  I just hope shareholders still ultimately give him a great big "F-U".  I'm so sick of these shenanigans by company "officers" to line their own pockets while screwing shareholders.

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Solar share prices are all really taking off today except for JASO due to ceiling the CEO's low buyout offer created.  Board should reject the offer immediately or they are not doing their fiduciary responsibility.  SEC and NYSE should investigate.

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