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JA Solar (JASO)

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Love JA's transparency: they gave a very detailed ASPs for both Q1 and Q2 by country like no one else before; CFO was openly questioning President; finally both (CFO and President) have no clue what's holding up Chairman/CEO from completing a buyout (both hinted that current low Market Cap is a non-issue if Chairman really wanted to). 

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Did they mention cost per watt to product?  And the ASP projections?  Do they see the same 10-15% ASP 2H drop that JKS spoke of?

I was driving & could not listen.

 

Thank you

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Sounds like blended cost is .333 .  Says it is hard to predict how much it will come down.  Says there is lots of room to come down b/c poly cost is just .08 or .09

Not sure about the 2H drop, but they said shipments will be 60% 1H, 40% 2H

I agree with you.  The CEO or maybe it's the CFO who speaks great English and is kind of funny too.  Very honest.

Maybe time to go long here?  Sounds like ASPs OK,  FIT cuts evenly spaced.  And CN manufactures prove they can lower costs quickly.

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Yeah.. they are so transparent.  When you compare that with SPWR & FSLR it's like night & day.

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JA sold modules at $0.41 and have cost at $0.33? That is 19%, with 96% of sales being a module, what am I missing in this math? Are they talking about China production only without tariff or resourcing? He did say blend, so I am confused.

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Yes that is strange because they reported GM of 12.9%    They are so modest!  Hmm...

I read Credit Suisse's note.  Their main concern is rising production levels.  They said JASO guided a 1.5GW boost in output... via mono PERC.

Credit Suisse sees 100GW of cell capacity vs 63/72 GW demand in 2017/2018.  I'm not sure if that 63 for 2017 includes the boost to 2017 China demand that JKS guided.

The see accelerated price delcines & margin pressure in 2H & maybe 2018 absent a stronger demand rebound.

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4 hours ago, sunnypease said:

The see accelerated price delcines & margin pressure in 2H & maybe 2018 absent a stronger demand rebound.

In other words, no change from current trends?  Manufacturers to continue to barely break even, needing huge volume because of razor-thin margins?

Great... (sarcasm)

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Anyone notice that Jinko was restrictive on cell expansion while JA restrictive on wafer and module expansion. There seem to be some rationality in expanding complementary segments among the big capacity players. 

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do you think they seem to support each other?

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