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odyd

JA Solar (JASO)

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All the beats across, guidance for the year is the same, quoted below

"For the third quarter of 2016, the Company expects total cell and module shipments to be in the range of 1,200 to 1,300 MW.  For the full year, the Company reiterates its prior shipment guidance of 5.2 to 5.5 GW, including 250 to 300 MW of module shipments to the Company's downstream projects. Revenues will not be recognized for the modules shipped to the Company's downstream projects as required by U.S. GAAP. "

Anyone listening to the call?

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Yes, get ready for mini 2012 - a.k.a. PPS (of all?) is on its way down (the only question is how much, especially for CSIQ, since its down a lot already) until mid 2017 (per JASO) recovery.

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9 minutes ago, pg6solar said:

Yes, get ready for mini 2012 - a.k.a. PPS (of all?) is on its way down (the only question is how much, especially for CSIQ, since its down a lot already) until mid 2017 (per JASO) recovery.

What are the EPS prediction, margins? If you listened can you share?

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For Q3 (for JA) GM is low teens! ASPs are lower in the US, Japan and CN. About the same in India and EU. Demand in all markets, except India, are to shrink. Tier2, Tier3 and OEM in CN are in trouble. JA is not running 100% already. 

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3 minutes ago, pg6solar said:

For Q3 (for JA) GM is low teens!

Already in Q2 it was low mid teens and they still printed $0.43 EPS. I would fear the change in GM would be much worse than that.

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Third of net was derivatives gains, not operations. So (with opex  of what? about 10%?) they may post a slight profit in Q3 and who knows what in Q4 and 17Q1. Still no info on buyout.

Edited by pg6solar
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53 minutes ago, pg6solar said:

Third of net was derivatives gains, not operations. So (with opex  of what? about 10%?) they may post a slight profit in Q3 and who knows what in Q4 and 17Q1. Still no info on buyout.

They are financially interesting (strong BS and can net profits in normal market), but the market has turn sharply against them. Cell prices are now 22.5 cents. They don't have much advantage from their 100% in-house cell supply strategy now.

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Thought this might be a good buy at $ 6, but not so sure now. BS doesn't look as strong as I first thought. Total current liabilities is 1.5 B$ (long term less than 0.5 B$). Inventory doubled from last quarter. AR slightly increased but accounts payable jumped by 50 %. Maybe this is normal for them, but now I wish I had jumped at $ 6. Anyone have a thought on what type of price this is fairly valued at, considering the down trend in the market?

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16 hours ago, Mike Dedmonton said:

Thought this might be a good buy at $ 6, but not so sure now. BS doesn't look as strong as I first thought. Total current liabilities is 1.5 B$ (long term less than 0.5 B$). Inventory doubled from last quarter. AR slightly increased but accounts payable jumped by 50 %. Maybe this is normal for them, but now I wish I had jumped at $ 6. Anyone have a thought on what type of price this is fairly valued at, considering the down trend in the market?

I think JASO is getting attractive here. For one it and JKS slumped more past month than CSIQ and FSLR and for this reason I took in both of them again just now after letting them go to concentrate on CSIQ and FSLR a bit more than a month ago.

Fundamentally JASO has before this latest slump been under pressure by the way spot prices developed past months. It saw its panel ASP go down and it could not enjoy the crash in cell prices to keep up its panel margins, since they don't buy any cells. JASO mainly sells panels and mainly buys wafers. This means that the past weeks' crash in wafer prices will be enjoyed very much by JASO. Strangely their stock slid further after getting this break in the spot prices development. Thus I concluded it to be a good time to re-enter them. It's also severely below the offering price and the series B warrants finally expired (worthless, i.e. the feared massive dilution did not happen) on August 16 and Trina considered this to be a good time to make the offer definite. All this makes JASO offer a bit more in play at a time when the PPS is severely below the offer price.

Regarding JKS it might be premature to enter them, but I have them slightly less weighted than CSIQ and JASO.

Edited by explo
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