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bought jks, down to less than 10% cash

Bought more JKS here too. I don't know why JKS has the most decline recently, their power ipo should be happening this year.

Edited by hellosolar

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Went shopping today.

Even though it was "planned" did not know I was going to do shopping today again, but (unlike yesterday) now for big ($$$) boys JKS (added half of "planned" addition with what looks like more to come) and CSIQ (not quite there yet to add, but almost).

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I will wait for the end of the day to see how the markets pan out. Will decide then whether to reduce positions. Looking for hammers across the board in solars to indicate a bit of stability. Any shaved bars printed forget i,t I will reduce and wait for earnings or a reversal.

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I don't know why JKS has the most decline recently, their power ipo should be happening this year.

Are you kidding? Check out GLBL chart how the demand for projects in not so high quality countries is... straight line down since IPO. Who in US buys such a project portfolio? In China ASFAIK IPO market is still closed. Have said a few times China project portfolio is not IPOable mid term with cash flow issues. Only when resolved and market wants such stuff again (starting with lower risk assets) there can be a thought for JKS do a IPO.

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Are you kidding? Check out GLBL chart how the demand for projects in not so high quality countries is... straight line down since IPO. Who in US buys such a project portfolio? In China ASFAIK IPO market is still closed. Have said a few times China project portfolio is not IPOable mid term with cash flow issues. Only when resolved and market wants such stuff again (starting with lower risk assets) there can be a thought for JKS do a IPO.

We will see what is happening. I read some comments from Chinese website that all CN solars are seriously considering privatization and list either HK or SH if they are seeing the market is stabilizing by the end of the year.

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JKS collects most from China. Their revenue will be effected the most. This should not be a big impact. Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk

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buying more WLL & OAS to hedge solar stock...

OAS etc are already up 33% from bottom a few days ago. I think it was short covering, because oil kept falling while these 2 went up. I still think the fall revaluations of debt is going to hammer a lot of names, and cause another leg down before we are done.

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could JKS turn green ?  at least its got a bit of traction off the lows so far.....  my blood pressure can come down a bit now.....    :)

 

TSL doing well turning green

Edited by sac_solar

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SUNE - an incredible intra day 20%+ reversal.

Valuation confusion. I'd consider this a warning sign for the stock.

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The Malaysian currency drops to its lowest level in 17 years http://poskod.my/cheat-sheets/6-things-know-falling-ringgit-value/

This should be good for those exporting to the US from Malaysia, anyone agree or disagree?

I'm not sure, I think the Ringget would have strengthened against the Yuan, so wages would go up in Malaysia if being paid through China. Cost of materials and all that, I have no idea about. Take into consideration I doubt China is finished with their currency tinkering. 

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I'm not sure, I think the Ringget would have strengthened against the Yuan, so wages would go up in Malaysia if being paid through China. Cost of materials and all that, I have no idea about. Take into consideration I doubt China is finished with their currency tinkering. 

There's talk China wants to weaken by up to 10% their Yuan against the $. If this happens there will be an all out currency war between emerging markets. Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and the like were slammed the last couple of days. Effectively they will be losing business to China. But the one it hurts the most will be the US, their exports will grind to a halt as the $ will rocket. Any US company who is heavy into exporting will be slammed, APPL etc. Not sure how this will effect SUNE, FSLR and SPWR. The good thing is demand for China goods should increase, bad news if the US feels the heat, the rest of the world will. 

There is one glimmer of hope in China's move. In fx circles analysts reckon China's move in currency devaluation has caused a massive over reaction from markets. They say if China really wanted to stimulate their economy through currency depreciation they would devalue it by 20-40%. Sounds a lot but 20% is what the RMB has gained against the Euro this year and 30% is what it has gained against the Yen! If this is the case the economy might not be teetering on the edge of a cliff after all and markets will bounce back from this BS

Edited by polarsparkie

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Barrons article out on how China's move will effect TSL's earnings. Every 1% move down in Yuan equates to a 5-6% move in earnings. Wow!

 

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/2015/08/11/which-stocks-will-gain-from-yuan-devaluation/

 

Keep saying, Trina is your big winner.  Everyone on the JKS wagon here... I am too, but the real winner is gonna be Trina.  Heck, even today Trina led us out of the toilet. 

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Barrons article out on how China's move will effect TSL's earnings. Every 1% move down in Yuan equates to a 5-6% move in earnings. Wow!

 

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/2015/08/11/which-stocks-will-gain-from-yuan-devaluation/

 

 

The power of forex moves on export margins is nothing new. Investors often mistake a forex move for company fundamental improvement or deterioration so forex moves provides good trading opportunities as investors erroneously price them in and do it late after fact. Trina is not special. Made in China and sold elsewhere can quickly double profits on this aggressive China move.

 

Edited by explo

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The power of forex moves on export margins is nothing new. Investors often mistake a forex move for company fundamental improvement or deterioration so forex moves provides good trading opportunities as investors erroneously price them in and do it late after fact. Trina is not special. Made in China and sold elsewhere can quickly double profits on this aggressive China move.


So why are you so overweight JASO when JASO's pps is clearly capped?  To me, JASO is the one solar stock not worth owning.  It has been for a couple years given the manipulation that goes on and now its just capped on growth by the takeover offer.  Trina is special given the volumes they deal with and global exposure and they have the best brand recognition.  This helps with that big US component until Thailand comes online next year.  Q3 and Q4 all of a sudden aren't nearly as bad.

Edited by Jacks

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The power of forex moves on export margins is nothing new. Investors often mistake a forex move for company fundamental improvement or deterioration so forex moves provides good trading opportunities as investors erroneously price them in and do it late after fact. Trina is not special. Made in China and sold elsewhere can quickly double profits on this aggressive China move.

 

Agree, Made in China and sold elsewhere is good for at least 3 of the 4. Why the market kicked the chit out of  the CN solars is beyond me. 

Anyone know how this effects CSIQ?

OT Massive explosion reported from China 

Edited by polarsparkie

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So why are you so overweight JASO when JASO's pps is clearly capped?  To me, JASO is the one solar stock not worth owning.  It has been for a couple years given the manipulation that goes on and now its just capped on growth by the takeover offer.  Trina is special given the volumes they deal with and global exposure and they have the best brand recognition.  This helps with that big US component until Thailand comes online next year.  Q3 and Q4 all of a sudden aren't nearly as bad.

JASO is cheaper and better net margin than TSL, but I'm observing TSL. I'll take the $9.69 offer for JASO and buy TSL at this price. US exports from China became a problem after bad outcome of tariff review. Trina exports a lot from China to US. JASO almost nothing.

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Agree, Made in China and sold elsewhere is good for at least 3 of the 4. Why the market kicked the chit out of  the CN solars is beyond me. 

Anyone know how this effects CSIQ?

OT Massive explosion reported from China 

From CSIQ 20F ...

"The majority of our sales in 2014 are denominated in Canadian dollars, U.S. dollars and Japanese yen, with the remainder in other currencies such as Euros, Renminbi and Australian dollars. Our Renminbi costs and expenses are primarily related to the sourcing of solar cells, silicon wafers and silicon, other raw materials, toll manufacturing fees, labor costs and local overhead expenses within the PRC. From time to time, we enter into loan arrangements with Chinese commercial banks that are denominated primarily in Renminbi or U.S. dollars. Most of our cash and cash equivalents and restricted cash are denominated in Renminbi"

"As of December 31, 2014, we had forward contracts of the U.S. dollar against the Renminbi with notional amount of $116.1 million outstanding. Assuming a 10.0% appreciation of the U.S. dollar against the Renminbi, the mark-to-market gain of our outstanding forward contracts of the U.S. dollar against the Renminbi would have decreased by approximately $11.6 million." 

Far as I could tell going forward ... devaluation may lower expenses (i.e., manufacturing and overhead). The unknown variable is their hedging strategy and amount of china sales. As it relates to Q2 ... since the devaluation just happened ... no impact from recent market moves.

I'm sure the question will come up during the call.

A question I ponder though is the impact on their canadian project sales if any ... assuming expenses were booked at a higher level and resulting sales coming in lower perhaps.

 

  • Upvote 1

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JASO is cheaper and better net margin than TSL, but I'm observing TSL. I'll take the $9.69 offer for JASO and buy TSL at this price. US exports from China became a problem after bad outcome of tariff review. Trina exports a lot from China to US. JASO almost nothing.

There's something to be said about buying something because its 'cheaper'.  JASO has been stuck for years.  Sometimes the fundamentals just don't matter when you also consider other aspects of growth.  Net margins don't mean anything when there's a takeout offer on the table.  Growth is capped effectively unless that changes.  Nothing that business does will matter.  Margin expansion, new technology... nothing matters until that offer is resolved.  Something I wouldn't be too eager to wait and see on when a good earnings pop and follow-through could get me that 20-some % gain from here to 9.69.  To compare JASO to anyone right now is faulty logic in my mind... because their price per share is capped right now. 

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