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That's a prime example of the mis information that was spread today. How do these guys call themselves analysts when they f up basic math and understanding of a company over and over again? So we get to suffer because analysts can't breakdown their business model properly, its sickening. But it also tells me when they F up so bad this price drop will be very short lived.

The number is 108 not 70MW, my bad.

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In fact, the number is 108.7MW in full contract recognition. 39.2MW- % of completion and 25.1MW are kits. 173MW,

In Q2 it was around 77MW. If they are guiding 5 times 14MW this is abut 70MW, leaving 136MW for the 2015. So this is less than Q2 and Q3 or Q3 and Q4 together. However, can someone explain why Samsung projects would have only 10% return? They module margin is about 15% and they sell them to Samsung in addition to EPC.

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Odyd and Sunny what would your EPS for 2015 currently be for CSIQ given current information on hand. Obviously like the analysts we forget about the 1.75 the put up this Q and the 1.25+ they will put up in Q4.

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If we take about 100MW for from 386MW in Canada for Q4, this leaves about 286MW. I think this is worth about $2.50.

The module is probably 2.8GW at 0.60 and 16% margin, to pull some $134M in net at 60M shares  that is about $2.

So I would say $4.50

I would say that they will be heading for about 4GW when 2015 is done,

So, 2.8GW module third party, 286 Canada (sold), 100MW Japan (delivered), 200MW project (hold), 500MW China (sold to fund maybe) 3.7GW

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If we take about 100MW for from 386MW in Canada for Q4, this leaves about 286MW. I think this is worth about $2.50.

The module is probably 2.8GW at 0.60 and 16% margin, to pull some $134M in net at 60M shares that is about $2.

So I would say $4.50

I would say that they will be heading for about 4GW when 2015 is done,

So, 2.8GW module third party, 286 Canada (sold), 100MW Japan (delivered), 200MW project (hold), 500MW China (sold to fund maybe) 3.7GW

Great thanks for breakdown...

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Their cost will be going down as well, 400MW of cells at 19% and upgrade of 1.5GW to over 18%, a bit of a break on the wafer not much. they could easily lose 2 cents on the cost as well.

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Great thanks for breakdown...

This has no other plant sales but Canadian ones. I think they could do a yieldco at 300MW. 500MW held in the fund in China (which could let recognized sales and add earnings) They could easily build those 40MW in UK and sell them.

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This has no other plant sales but Canadian ones. I think they could do a yieldco at 300MW. 500MW held in the fund in China (which could let recognized sales and add earnings) They could easily build those 40MW in UK and sell them.

Amazing so $4.50-$5.00 EPS is a reasonable possibility for 2015 and that doesn't include anything in Japan which should yield huge returns in 2016 along with china and emerging market pipelines. I guess this is why Potter is so confident in visibility of pipeline 2-3 years out. That's a first for him. This clarity is beautiful. lol no one will be stealing my shares with this dialed in visibility.

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I will be a happy camper when they start publishing details about those 200MW of projects and more info on how they want to run their business between holding and selling.  This will have to push the envelope.

I think the point they got today is 386MW in Canada, and entering 2015 you have 286MW with some US flippers that is good for the first half of the year.

Then what happens next? 80MW in Japan, does not look like enough for yieldco, so good for sale, but then no yieldco, at all. China is the fund, so some selling to the fund if possible. But no IPO, no easy money for Sachs etc. I think that 200MW holds the key for yieldco and with 100MW in Japan would make just right size for actioning it. 

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That's very good discussion on 2015, thanks.

As they've indicated on the CC, there are quite a few things being cooked for the YieldCo. They could build a pipeline in US as well.

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I will be a happy camper when they start publishing details about those 200MW of projects and more info on how they want to run their business between holding and selling.  This will have to push the envelope.

I think the point they got today is 386MW in Canada, and entering 2015 you have 286MW with some US flippers that is good for the first half of the year.

Then what happens next? 80MW in Japan, does not look like enough for yieldco, so good for sale, but then no yieldco, at all. China is the fund, so some selling to the fund if possible. But no IPO, no easy money for Sachs etc. I think that 200MW holds the key for yieldco and with 100MW in Japan would make just right size for actioning it. 

 

While it goes without saying that I'm not happy with how today went and I think it was not justified at all, the worry over replacing the Canadian pipeline is something that has been discussed to death. From today's press release, only 98.4mwmw are self developed projects slated for sale in 2015. The bulk of 2015 Canadian projects are EPC are not nearly as profitable. To put this 98.4mw in perspective, they sold 50mw in Q3 alone.  Another way of viewing this is their statement that their Canadian pipeline still has C$1.4B worth of unrealized revenue which will be spread out over the next five quarters. As a point of reference, around C$400M this quarter were from their Canadian projects (both sale and EPC) based on the C$1.8B value that was placed on the backlog in the Q2 press release. While this definitely shows that their Canadian pipeline still has juice in it and will add a solid ~1B in revenue for 2015, come Q3 2015 the Japan among others projects better be really picking up steam as the Canadian pipeline will be just about dry. This means Gordo wrote the article around a year early! Even so, how does a doomsday MARGINS COLLAPSING $2.5/share for 2015 equal a great short on a now $28 stock? Somehow a forward PE of 12(based on his doomsday math) is now considered immensely overvalued in Gordo's eyes. As for the nonsense that GS wrote, they keep finding more creative metrics to value these companies at so they can rationalize a low price as they can't assign a PE of 8 with a straight face. 

 

I'd also like to say that at the start of the correction in Sept I said that earnings won't matter, a statement that was much derided my other members here. Today showed the truth of that, just to a much larger extent than I could have imagined. Even I thought that after printing 1.75 they would have to go up.  I only recall one point were a big earnings day sell-off on solid results from TSL actually marked the start of a sustained uptrend. All other times they have marked the beginning of a downtrend. The 21.2M shares traded today makes me think it is going to be the latter of the two.

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Amazing so $4.50-$5.00 EPS is a reasonable possibility for 2015 and that doesn't include anything in Japan which should yield huge returns in 2016 along with china and emerging market pipelines. I guess this is why Potter is so confident in visibility of pipeline 2-3 years out. That's a first for him. This clarity is beautiful. lol no one will be stealing my shares with this dialed in visibility.

Market has discounted a lot for CSIQ @ $28. Just like any other solar they have to continuously replenish pipeline. They always have and they will continue to do so.

As odyd pointed out just recognizing Canadian Pipeline in 2014 with module sales $4.50 is strong possibilities. Any other upside and $5.00 could be hit.

Then even if you don't realize anything in Japan till 2016 you will realize a monster 2016-2017

Then you will have a massive amount of projects developed in China Q4 2014,2015, 2016 all held for huge FIT payment. On top if that comes additional project like Brazilian. Let's not forget any other projects in Canada and US which are won plus the additional 200MW they just announced in CC?

So visibility of $4-$5 dollars per year for next 2-3 years. Qu now has much more cash at his disposal which makes it much easier to replenish pipeline. So best visibility of any solar and the biggest worry is Qu won't replenish pipeline? LOL that's a joke.

Even Gordo with "the world is ending" view for 2015 gives them $2.50 for 2015 and with a modest 15PE that marks CSIQ as extremely undervalued @28 .

2-3 years of guaranteed big time profits and as Qu said he already has "big things cooking" in project pipeline. What more can you ask for? They have the most projects of any other solar in the 2 highest margin areas in world... Canada and Japan. With booking now happening in emerging markets and monster scale up in China happening in 2015. How can you not be drooling over a $28 stock price? Being on the verge of running out of projects is one thing, but having strong visibility for many years out is another. CSIQ got punished for no reason yesterday and it will snap back violently over next couple weeks.

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I guess prudent company that manages its capital by essentially replacing its growth spending from project to project only, is not an attractive model to WS. The model of SUNE, with MWs booked, spending and the catastrophic balance sheet,income statement is misunderstood by masses conveniently, that model is worth $5B alone and it is better.

We all seen recommendations for SUNE, not a single downgrade. CSIQ is a short sale according to Gordon, but GS took literally at $1B and removed yesterday from a market cap on exactly the same Microsoft Presentation as the day before. If you take that presentation from August and add news releases from both, Q2 and Q3, you will see that the same schedule exists for Japan. In ,fact it got enhanced by few MW, no difference in timelines. Same can be said for Canada, of course less what was sold.

So what was the shock Frank experienced when he did the $1B chop? Margins, as of course He (last name) ignored 200MW as too much of the concept.

The margins going from 17 to 19% has cost the company this. A drop of 3.9% from 22.9% to 19% on 975M is 38M, If I fully apply this amount to the bottom line that is the more than $0.50 per share. If this was moved, Q4 would be a $1.75 quarter and Q3 would be a $1.25 quarter as they planned (analysts did). Then Q1 would look like a cheap cousin on Christmas, and the same, but perhaps worse as the expectations would be poor fro sales of plants for Q1, would happen.

You see Frank needed to come out, because he had his comments scripted, this is why the whole thing does not make much sense. Johnson came out because it was scripted to come out. Nothing Johnson knew day before was  different day later, he bent the facts a bit to make the splash but no new information was provided. This was a conspiracy.  They knew they were going to sell this stock yesterday, no matter what the company has done.

Why so little focus on 200MW of new projects? Why did they not ask about GCL situation? Makes sense and their wafer. The principle business of CSIQ was in jeopardy not because of projects but wafer supply issues. This did not matter. Somehow selling for profit, made analysts realize that good projects are scare regardless as Uchsteve pointed out Potter saying Japan is up on ASP as I mentioned due to grid connection value.

 

So why selling this equity so hard? Two things only. No short and fees from money on secondary and no money from IPO yieldco. Companies, which are hinting not to go to a disastrous financial schemes, are being stripped of value. You do not pay them for fees, you do not allow them to short stock like TSL did. You do not provide them with easy money. They taken a 12% killing of FSLR and moved it to CSIQ yesterday. It did not matter than CSIQ was a better company, which made almost three times per share FSLR did. SPWR will do yieldco and it made 0.20 and they left it alone. Bankers have managed to beat the management of these companies to servant state of reaching their objectives. I think WS forced TSL to do secondary, so they can sell her short and close early short. They managed to destroy the stock now trading at $9 to achieve their trading objectives.

 



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I promoted above to article, it is my view, but if you agree, please share on yahoo. Google refuses to scan this section (Forum Articles) so I do not expect a lot

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Snake is harping about 10% in the US being months before 15%. So selling with tariff in place have taken 5% from CSIQ. How more obvious this is?

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Companies, which are hinting not to go to a disastrous financial schemes, are being stripped of value.

 

I think this is a passable thesis... But it does pose some troubling questions. Namely where does the massive volume come from? On Q2 ER there was about 23 million shares traded. Yesterday 21 million traded. How does one make volume exceeding the entire institutional interest? Since nothing really changed from Q2 to Q3, can we conclude that movement up during Q2 ER was controlled as well? 

 

Secondly, tanking the stock isn't the most efficient or least expensive way to exit a position. Are these institutions really playing games at their own detriment to make a statement? These don't seem like prudent business decisions.

 

Thirdly, where are the investors? Shouldn't they outnumber a few greasy WS institutions? 

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I think this is a passable thesis... But it does pose some troubling questions. Namely where does the massive volume come from? On Q2 ER there was about 23 million shares traded. Yesterday 21 million traded. How does one make volume exceeding the entire institutional interest? Since nothing really changed from Q2 to Q3, can we conclude that movement up during Q2 ER was controlled as well? 

 

Secondly, tanking the stock isn't the most efficient or least expensive way to exit a position. Are these institutions really playing games at their own detriment to make a statement? These don't seem like prudent business decisions.

 

Thirdly, where are the investors? Shouldn't they outnumber a few greasy WS institutions? 

How many times you bought, sold to buy again same lot of shares in a day?

21M could be 5M, as they walk the price down, trading back and forth. It does not cost them anything to trade any more than any other time. Everything what happens to the price is controlled. There is no more surprise factors with prices. Suprise factors exist with results not how you will trade them.

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21M could be 5M, as they walk the price down, trading back and forth.

 

That is more troubling than WS games. Doesn't it mean there was no new interest yesterday?

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That is more troubling than WS games. Doesn't it mean there was no new interest yesterday?

I cannot tell you what the outcome was. How many people sell yesterday from here?

I am not sure if anyone admits, but I sold few hundred to buy more options. My point is you can sell one lot ten times and it look like you trade 1000 shares. Can an institution trade 500K shares ten times in a day? how about 1M shares? Of course they can, they can sell within the house, shares people hold in their accounts without them knowing. LIke your savings are used by the bank to lend money to others. That money is a leverage, you could never see gone from your ledger, but that money is used. So are stocks. Nothing new and surprising. 

 

Old trick in the book was to put a sell order as they cannot access "engaged" equity, but who does this with any regularity?

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Normura response to Gordon His argument is flawed on multiple levels. I quote

"

1. ASPs of projects in Japan sold till date to cashflow investors in the market so far is at US$4/W which at a construction cost of US$3/W is 25% gross margin.

2. He is talking about draconian law changes which is something the METI has so far not talked about. Yes they are reviewing the FIT policy but there is no indication that the changes are retroactive. Also, the bottleneck for installers to construct projects is not their lethargy but the fact that Japan solar utilities have been slow to give connection permits to large projects. So, to create a fear-factor on something that Japan authorities have not hinted is patting your own back.

3. He talks about CSIQ will finish 173MW of projects in 4Q14 and burn out the pipeline. I think he needs to create a model to understand what he talking about. Company is noting 5 project sales, i.e. ~70MW. Company is selling into Samsung EPC and that is another 60~70MW. After this company is left with 140MW of Samsung EPC and 110MW of own project pipeline. So how he gets to 83.8% pipeline in Canada finished is something only he can answer.

4. Yes the number of own projects available for next year for sale in Canada is lower than this year. There is 80MW of projects in Japan, 50MW of projects in UK as company noted, 200~300MW projects in China and equivalent amount in US. While UK, China and US projects have lower flip margins, i.e. EPC construction to sale margins are 10% but that does not include the module margin which is separate. Your total margin is 15~20%."

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Guest singular

Good morning gang. I hope everyone is ok after yesterday. I admit that I am taking this very badly as this has affected me. But life goes on and all we can do is keep trying.

Pop, I am very sorry to hear what you are going through. I pray that you and your wife will be blessed one day with the family you deserve.

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It is their 2015 guidance

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/sunpower-announces-fiscal-2015-guidance-133000287.html

no growth in revenue and EPS.

 

Looks like all CNs are punished again for it, LOL. I can understand that there needs to be released some of the lofty valuation of SPWR, but where are the lofty valuations for CN4? Well, I guess we have a panicky market now.

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Looks like all CNs are punished again for it, LOL. I can understand that there needs to be released some of the lofty valuation of SPWR, but where are the lofty valuations for CN4? Well, I guess we have a panicky market now.

I guess the market is also looking for a perpetual growth, EPS, demand, capacity, plants. God forbid repeat earnings or sacrifice to gain something.

I am glad most of analysts held up position CSIQ. The thing is cheap.

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Good morning gang. I hope everyone is ok after yesterday. I admit that I am taking this very badly as this has affected me. But life goes on and all we can do is keep trying.

 

What is the plan for you, hold until the bitter end or take lumps?

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