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Trading Solars

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Guest spiritcraft

I had sold the last of my JKS yesterday after having left for the day. I would have rebalance immediately had I been here. One of my few lucky breaks... I did buy more CSIQ, SOL and TSL in the last few minutes. I was selling JKS from $7.50 on up... wish I would have sold it all 10 plus but oh well. I finally sold the last at $9.75.. some at a big loss, some at a nice gain. Oh well, it felt like the right thing to do seeing that JKS has now gained about $5.00 on TSL and CSIQ. Highly scientific, I know. It is quite the pullback though. For what it's worth... on the fall this AM, CSIQ was being bought in large blocks but being filled with 100-1000 chunks of shares. Who knows if this is real meaningful but it is a better sign than when the reverse happens.

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Guest solarman1

When does everyone see the current consolidation the solar companies are going through will be over? What are the top picks when this latest consolidation is over? I am thinking adding SOL, CSIQ and TSL.. thoughts?

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Guest spiritcraft

Those are my three holdings currently. I had JKS as well but sold it out from $7.50 and up and put it into SOL and CSIQ, adding to CSIQ and buying SOL for the first time since early 2011. Many here think that most of the solar 11 will be survivors / winners. More controversy around LDK and STP though.

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Guest spiritcraft

They won yesterday big and they seem to be active today... They were definitely out on TSL, throwing up big blocks to knock it back.

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Guest photon

I sold 3/4 of my position in Sol and Csiq into the weak strength this morning. Going with my gut and feel that an overall correction in the general markets will pull all sectors down, including solar, despite possible better than expected Q4 numbers and good guidance. Sometimes the baby does get thrown out with the bath water......and it normally happens with the solar sector. Looking to get back in Sol in low 2s and csiq in high 3s. Thinking of shorting TSL to 4 as well. I hope this all works out the way I see it unfolding.

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I sold 3/4 of my position in Sol and Csiq into the weak strength this morning. Going with my gut and feel that an overall correction in the general markets will pull all sectors down, including solar, despite possible better than expected Q4 numbers and good guidance. Sometimes the baby does get thrown out with the bath water......and it normally happens with the solar sector. Looking to get back in Sol in low 2s and csiq in high 3s. Thinking of shorting TSL to 4 as well. I hope this all works out the way I see it unfolding.

Congrats on profit. I flipped a percentage and reloaded sol yesterday and lowered my cost average to 1.67. In regards to earnings coming up keep in mind solars love to rally on earnings when Q bad but guidance good. In this case you mint see some solid Q with better margins and on top of that great guidance on revs and margins.

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Agreed. While solars do follow the market...esp when it sells off!...they also LOVE any positive news flow and we should see pretty good guidance from TSL next week. I am considering adding more SOL today.

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Looks like yesterday great day to buy some fear... Many solars making a move here into close... Strong uptrend continues... Next week Next leg up... And if anything with earning starting next week we might see some very bullish comments on price increases

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Guest solarman1

Looks like CSIQ might close strong today. A close above $4.75 would be nice (above 20 SMA) for CSIQ.. It looks like TSL and SPWR want to go higher... time will tell. :)

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Guest thecomeup

I haven't been invested in solar for almost 2 years. I'm loading past severaldays... Again. Was fortunate to get out with big gains and not ride them down to far. Imhappy I found this board, very informative.... Thanks to the creator. I see a paradighm shift happening in industry. An inflection point if you will. I truly believe we are embarking on the next solar bull market . Long story short based on my DD I went in big over past week on SOL and smaller position on. Both CSIQ and TSL. Basically 70/15/15 split. Just believe SOL has most potential going forward with their very efficient modules, low processing cost, in house poly, solid management, reasonable debt, and I truly believe they will be first so,ar to show profits. Good luck to all!

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Guest photon

I sold 3/4 of my position in Sol and Csiq into the weak strength this morning. Going with my gut and feel that an overall correction in the general markets will pull all sectors down, including solar, despite possible better than expected Q4 numbers and good guidance. Sometimes the baby does get thrown out with the bath water......and it normally happens with the solar sector. Looking to get back in Sol in low 2s and csiq in high 3s. Thinking of shorting TSL to 4 as well. I hope this all works out the way I see it unfolding.

Guess the only thing i didn't do right was short TSL at 4.70

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Guest solarman1

Odyd - How do you start a new thread? I am glad you started this board for investors like myself to come and understand solar investing in more depth. As you probably know, I am new to this solar space of investing. In your honest opinion, did TSL give a strong outlook for 2013? Why are we down? I bought SOL, TSL and CSIQ a few weeks ago and I am down (just a little). Would you average down at this price range or would you wait? Thanks a million. :)

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I am long term. I am buying TSL next time when I am buying stocks. I am not good to tell you what is to buy as I am bias toward TSL and YGE.

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Guest rational_judgement

TSL and others are cratering today. Already negative for the year. Looks like short attack is in full swing. But this should pass very soon...

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Guest solarman1

Spiritcraft - thanks for the tip. Like I say, I am new from yahoo board and still learning this new PV board which I found mostly very useful. I wish Odey is able somehow to stop those 'pumpers' and 'bashers' from posting. We just need informative discussion, period. :)

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Guest Klothilde
I'm interested to see which ASP you will post for Trina, odyd. Explo and I have a bet going on on ASPs... I wasn't able to discern anything from the call. At one point the SVP of modules talked about ASPs but his english was bad and on top the sound quality was crappy.

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Guest spiritcraft

Who knows... CSIQ is coming back from way down. You should have seen 2009 and TSL, sold off every ER only to continue the climb... different story but the shorts got burned each and every time. TSL sure at in the real low 4's for a long time today... a million shares time at least. Again, nobody knows...

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Guest Bodhi

I don't think the tumble down is done yet... look at the broader market. Yesterday's selloff sent the DJIA below 50 RSI for the first time in basically 2.5 months. A little red is expected/necessary at this point. My guess is solars will bottom out in another month or so before beginning the next leg up. Believe it or not, solars tend to follow the DOW, some to greater extent than others, and it defnitely needs a breather. My 2c Been trading these since their inception

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Guest ILOVEPV

Should solars follow DOW they would have been brightly green today while in reality they are brightly red. Solars follow "invisible market hand" that controls a price according to her needs. Fortunately these guys have serious plans for solars on a long side and this is a major reason to play along.

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Guest Bodhi

Really don't want to get into an arguement, but look at the dow since november, then solars ... in other words, less microscopically. Note even the intraday upswing in solars mirrored the DOW as well... Either way, with as many pumpers as there are here, a little cautious optimism should be welcomed. If you had sold just about ANY solar 1 week ago, you could buy back now and own about 20% more shares. Long and strong isn't always the best bet.. KW

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Guest Bodhi

One more side note for all those with a keen eye... I really think days like today are a way to lure a few peeps back in so positions for the swift can be closed. Those who didn't get out of the market before the downswing yesterday have a few more days before downtrend resumes. Once again, My 2c. take it for what you will

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Guest larryvand

Nothing can move a stock quicker than strong profits. And Q4 2012 isn't one of those and possibly neither is Q1 2013. So expect more up and downs ahead. As long as we recover to a higher high trend is up. GLTA

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Well, nothing is easy here. I am working on it and probably have something published by week end. I have ideas but need to run them by few people. It is hard to get anything outside the CC and NRs so I may be out of luck too. I will let you know.

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Guest spiritcraft

So... this thread has a new home. Everything else has been shaken up a bit. We have a report from TSL and all of the Chi-Solars are down 25% or more. TSL's report was better than most expected without many surprises yet the entire sector was brought down to varying degrees. Any further re-balancing ideas? Personally, I would throw much more money in right here but it might lead to a divorce! Seriously, it seems like we have been taken down on not much of import and wonder what has changed if anything? This is the place for LT strategy and opinions that don't belong anywhere else so bring it on.

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I agree spiritcraft. Trading these past few days have been brutal. Hopefully this is just profit taking and not a full blown trend reversal. I thought I saw some chart techinicians on this forum. Was hoping for some thoughts on SOL's one year chart if possible. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SOL+Interactive&desktop_view_default=true#symbol=sol;range=1y;compare=;indicator=sma(20,50,200)+volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined; Thanks. P.S. this forum is a god send. Also, love the fact that the newest posts are up top on page 1 versus having to scroll down.

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