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Interesting options activity in JKS June call options with $18 & $19 strikes. The 19's are seeing 2,533 k's transacted vs. open interest of 647 k's  

Somebody is betting on a pop......

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FSLR sell filled. JKS buy filled.

I set the buy at 17.90 and missed it. It is good to see strong move up, day before cc. I hope they beat good all metrics to make Chinese move up.

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I am trying to thin some of the CSIQ before tomorrow but my average sitts at 12.87 range.

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Does anyone think JKS is a good deal here?  

I was trying to figure out what % of their sales goes to the US.  Their IR site is down and I can't see any of those nice presentation PDFs they offer.

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4 minutes ago, odyd said:

I am trying to thin some of the CSIQ before tomorrow but my average sitts at 12.87 range.

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Do you think CSIQ ER will disappoint like JKS?  Are you thinking about moving to cash?

I think CSIQ is cheap here.  The street is not expecting too much out of CSIQ ER.  If it surprises to the good side, it might pop.

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Do you think CSIQ ER will disappoint like JKS?  Are you thinking about moving to cash?

I think CSIQ is cheap here.  The street is not expecting too much out of CSIQ ER.  If it surprises to the good side, it might pop.

Expectations are low but I am worried about the revenue. If I sold it would be to buy more lower. I doubt I will get the chance to sell today. I agree the price is already low.

 

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38 minutes ago, odyd said:

Expectations are low but I am worried about the revenue. If I sold it would be to buy more lower. I doubt I will get the chance to sell today. I agree the price is already low.

 

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I hear you.  Crossing my fingers, I don't think it will drop below $12 if the report is bad.  So, you might be able to save $0.50 with bad ER.  On the other hand, you would miss out the chance to buy it back if it goes up from here.  Would you be willing buy it back higher if the report is good?

With that said, I am tempted to move some CSIQ to JKS ($17.4) at this point.

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28 minutes ago, Jetmoney said:

I don't think it will drop below $12 if the report is bad. 

JKS had 11% GMs because of both outsourcing and low ASPs. If CSIQ will ship any meaningful volume (of course nowhere close to JKS') even with ASP premium of say $.40, they're looking for margins under 10% and a loss (sold projects as announced will not bring profits). 

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Yeah, I can't see much good coming out of CSIQ earnings tomorrow.  What I'm hoping is the saving grace is some meaningful update on the REIT and maybe some other project sales news. With JKS still wanting to go back to the 16s today, looks like we're getting the typical CN treatment.  Meanwhile, SPWR is holding above 8 bucks still.  Makes sense. 

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Geez guys. I know we all love solar, but is now really the time to be holding these companies?  What are you all hoping for.. some buyouts?  

The market already showed us the "the whole world is against us" price back in December.   I don't think the picture has gotten any better.

It's gotten worse with this 201.  That wasn't even imagined back then.

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JKS had 11% GMs because of both outsourcing and low ASPs. If CSIQ will ship any meaningful volume (of course nowhere close to JKS') even with ASP premium of say $.40, they're looking for margins under 10% and a loss (sold projects as announced will not bring profits). 

It sound like you think they failed to see margin when they pointed to it in March. While it is not their fault that average revenue expectation is greater than one given by them that would be unforgiving mistake. They clearly said 13 to 15% gm.

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Yes they (CSIQ) did. JKS, however badly missed on their 12% to 15% guidance range, of course JKS reported 4 weeks earlier so CSIQ should have better Q1 GMs visibility, but we'll see. 

Edit: lets keep in mind that JKS IMHO mostly missed on margins due to huge OEM shipments and if CSIQ will have the same (huge shipments relative to as guided), they'll miss too.

 

Edited by pg6solar

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Yes they (CSIQ) did. JKS, however badly missed on their 12% to 15% guidance range, of course JKS reported 4 weeks earlier so CSIQ should have better Q1 GMs visibility, but we'll see. 
Edit: lets keep in mind that JKS IMHO mostly missed on margins due to huge OEM shipments and if CSIQ will have the same (huge shipments relative to as guided), they'll miss too.
 

I am not fully aware of their margin guidance. Was this something said unofficially?

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Ok. Just moved some CSIQ to JKS here.

I bought JKS at 17.19 but holding to CSIQ

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9 minutes ago, odyd said:


I am not fully aware of their margin guidance. Was this something said unofficially?

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Yes, JKS gave Q1 (official) guidance of 12-15% during Q4 ER in February in Q&A session. And in today's ER's Q&A they mostly blamed high OEM shipments (and higher poly to some degree) for missing the above guided margins (they did not provide margins going forward). Their blended costs actually went up Q/Q. So if CSIQ has high OEM shipments (like JKS, with its corresponding much higher then internal costs, especially considering CSIQ is still less integrated) to meet "demand", they'll most likely miss on GMs too.  One thing in CSIQ's favor is they reported almost at the end of Q1, so maybe, maybe they'll be in range.

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CSIQ is shipping half of JKS they better have those margins.

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Interesting cc. I think we will be fine, just the matter of playing the improvements in technology.  They had a very clear answer that capacity integrated is PERC multi for CSIQ. CSIQ would be losing on buying mono wafers, but then again I am not sure what is needed to move the cell through PERC mono versus multi if there is any transition.

A lot of bottlenecks in China and the US, prices going up and no retroactive penalties in the US would be a good news. Q3 could be a heavy win for them with PERC going at 0.45 per watt and having it made at 0.37. 

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14 hours ago, odyd said:

CSIQ is shipping half of JKS they better have those margins.

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They made it...barely - 13.5%. But posted a loss anyway.

Edited by pg6solar

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3 minutes ago, pg6solar said:

They made it...barely - 13.5%. But posted a loss anyway.

Loos like they cannot produce enough for the market and lower guidance of modules to be sold and hence the revenue... potentially. This is going to leave the mark.

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They seem to hold the margin guidance between 13 and 15%, however with the revenue levels that is a loss, unless plants are sold, but does not seem to be happening with any expectations as this quarter has only a few days left. The JREIT is still unclear, the timeline is pushed. 

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Street cannot make up its mind on csiq.  To buy or to sell, hence the yoyo.

I used this to sell the lot from yesterday. Now I am waiting to add

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46 minutes ago, odyd said:


I used this to sell the lot from yesterday. Now I am waiting to add

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Good job!  I wonder why the street is buying.  Is it too low at this price?  That was why I said yesterday that it might not dip below $12 even with bad ER.  With that said, I also got out some this morning on the early pop.

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It was not a "bad ER". They met (even beat) low expectation. Bad would be GMs below JKS' 11% with $40M (instead of $13M) or so loss. We still may see $11 or lower (especially with any market hick up for which we over due), but not today.  

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I am looking at the numbers I have calculated for this year, and it is obvious that the estimates will not be met. I suspect that CSIQ can bring about $1.80 without any more losses forward and unknown profitability from Brazil sales, but based on sales in the US, the UK, and Japan.  This means they would end at $1.50. I have difficult time to see Jinko crack $2.00

I am in line with Yahoo on CSIQ, JKS is still estimated to do 2.47, JASO, this could be a mistake, shows 0.02 for 2017. I think they would end up below $0.50

PE could improve to about 10 so CSIQ could deliver $15 per share and JKS about $20. EPS for JASO could have the stock drop to $5s, which could be attractive when 6.80 comes in. I will try to buy JASO if it does slip below 6.

Now whether JKS can get 10 PE could be disputed.

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I bought CSIQ this morning at 12.41 I am 100% in

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