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dydo

Trading Solars

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16 minutes ago, odyd said:


Why would ppa needed to be renegotiated? When CSIQ quoted the value last year did they renegotiate ppa to reflect the lower price this year?
No it is a mechanism of market pricing. In last 12 months developer got squeezed now they can get balanced again.

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Ok. You mean that the "value" lies in that there will be a shortage of projects available to investors (e.g. yieldcos) if utilities are not willing to increase PPAs to cover the increased panel cost for developers and thus no new projects will be developed? Yes that's true. For FSLR the value lies in being able to negotiate higher PPA of future projects to develop despite not being impacted by the higher panel prices in US. That value is more significant.

 

Edited by explo

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1 hour ago, sunnypease said:

Lots of negative news now.  The petition, the tariff, and now Trump officials say he is likely to pull out of Paris.  

Hard to predict what Trump will do and how tariff (or not) will affect stock prices.  I buy when I see fear, prices are low and fundamental seems intact, and sell when there is euphoria.  Just a few days ago, people cannot wait to buy JKS above $22 and now it drops below $18.  So, I just bought back all JKS shares, the last two batches below $18 and also bought more CSIQ.  Again, it may drop a little more but cheap enough for me.  Besides, poly and cell prices are all green.  This should bode well for panels (at least it seems to stabilize).

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For FSLR they are able to build for current ppa as they do not have burden of cost. They can sell them with better gm fore higher asp well below others. Yes to other parts.

 

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14 minutes ago, odyd said:

In last 12 months developer got squeezed now they can get balanced again.
 

Does CSIQ have projects where they signed for a PPA & now must pay tariffs on panels to fulfill those (now suddenly) low PPAs?

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7 minutes ago, odyd said:

For FSLR they are able to build for current ppa as they do not have burden of cost. They can sell them with better gm fore higher asp well below others. Yes to other parts.

 

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Yes they can get same PPA as the market in the future which has to go up a lot from today's market if import restrictions for most of the market increases project development costs with up to 50%. Due to higher PPA for FSLR's projects in the future than today at the same cost as today they can get higher ASP for a given IRR requirement. Then further as you say the IRR requirement might come down also due to the higher development cost in the future in order for project supply to meet project demand and that will boost FSLR's ASP and margin even further. So higher panel prices in US will push PPA prices up and IRR requirements down in a shared burden between project developers, utilities and plant owners. FSLR can benefit on both the latter without the burden of the former. CSIQ can benefit from lower IRR requirements.

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1 hour ago, odyd said:

Sold FSLR to buy below 38 and added CSIQ at 12.80

 

Sold my CSIQ trading shares at 13.75 yesterday, got back in with you at 12.81 this morning. Just looking for a small bounce with this though as I don't trust the market reaction to the orange clown's paris antics. I'm hoping this morning WAS the reaction, but who knows. 

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Crude oil drop 3% today.  This could contribute to the drop in solar stocks in addition with all the other news out there regarding Trump's Climate stand and pending tariff finding.

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Trump pulling from Paris is the issue

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I hope he doesn't.  I think the market is pricing in the decision that he will pull out.  It would be a good reversal if he does not.  Trump changes his decisions on a lot of issues lately.  So, I will not be surprised if he changes his mind on this as well.

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1 minute ago, odyd said:

Hanwha is up why?

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Way up in the last minute.  Wonder what is going on there.

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2 hours ago, Jetmoney said:

Still waiting for Explo's shuffle.  Is JKS cheap enough to warrent a shuffle soon?

Cash constrained now due to funds shuffling.

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16 hours ago, Jetmoney said:

I hope he doesn't.  I think the market is pricing in the decision that he will pull out.  It would be a good reversal if he does not.  Trump changes his decisions on a lot of issues lately.  So, I will not be surprised if he changes his mind on this as well.

Let's consider this for a moment if he will. There is a federal support for it in form of ITC and PTC but access to the US will be removed with tariffs, making them less value. The federal support is out, in a couple of years, 4 I think now. Companies will address it or not by establishing the manufacturing in the US. A lot of renewable action, all of it, is taking place at state level. A lot of reason for it is an economic benefit over coal price via solar, but mostly ng. I doubt his action will change anything. Renewables are technology first, for the first time in the history of the US, the president wants the country to be so isolated from technological progress by own desire.

FSLR which may benefit from tariffs in place may suffer on global arena as perhaps fewer deals will be made with the US companies to make a point. It is a symbolic, ethical, world climate -no support condition/ loss but I am not convinced it is a business loss to solar companies. love to hear feedback

 

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28 minutes ago, odyd said:

Let's consider this for a moment if he will. There is a federal support for it in form of ITC and PTC but access to the US will be removed with tariffs, making them less value. The federal support is out, in a couple of years, 4 I think now. Companies will address it or not by establishing the manufacturing in the US. A lot of renewable action, all of it, is taking place at state level. A lot of reason for it is an economic benefit over coal price via solar, but mostly ng. I doubt his action will change anything. Renewables are technology first, for the first time in the history of the US, the president wants the country to be so isolated from technological progress by own desire.

FSLR which may benefit from tariffs in place may suffer on global arena as perhaps fewer deals will be made with the US companies to make a point. It is a symbolic, ethical, world climate -no support condition/ loss but I am not convinced it is a business loss to solar companies. love to hear feedback.

A little late now, but would be good to look at what % of each CN solar sells to the US.  However, I remember that some CN solars could change markets rather quickly.

How quickly can production be shifted into the US? 

  US won't have cheap labor.  Simply moving production may not solve the issue for CN solars.  They would need to automate more.  

  Is FSLR production more automated vs CN peers?

  You mention States vs Federal.  Do States pay for ITC or is it federal money?

  I asked before, but seems worth asking again.  Which wind companies are likely to benefit from a sudden spike in solar cost?

  With more cash flow, FSLR can invest more in R&D.  This was always the Achiles heel for the CN solars.  Almost certainly future solar tech will look nothing like today's solar tech.  (what ever happened to quantum dots?)

  If the ITC is cancelled at the same time as a tariff, it would kill solar badly in the US, along with US manufacturers.  

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I have totally given up guessing what Trump will do next.  I am not even sure he knows.  His homerun play would be to stay with in the Paris agreement then add tarriffs to importers unless they begin US manufacturing within some designated time period. 

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I sold JKS and FSLR completely. I am holding to CSIQ only

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Sold the CSIQ I bought yesterday at 12.81.  I think the risk is to the upside on a Trump surprise, but I've been burned so many times over the years in such instances, I'm playing it safe with this trading money.  I have more shares much higher that I'm holding that I care to think about anyway should the orange clown make our weekend brighter.

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Maybe best strategy is to sell it all, and be ready at 3pm EST when the announcement is made.  What is the fastest way to get the news?

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4 minutes ago, sunnypease said:

Maybe best strategy is to sell it all, and be ready at 3pm EST when the announcement is made.  What is the fastest way to get the news?

I'd imagine a 'leaker' will be out with it before the actual presser, but if not, CNN is where I'll be.

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Is anyone still holding JASO, other than me?

I figure it has proven itself within the quarter & isn't selling off, so may climb.

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My local channel reported Trump will announce to leave Paris. This is Canadian TV.

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10 minutes ago, odyd said:

My local channel reported Trump will announce to leave Paris. This is Canadian TV.

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On the US TV yesterday, it was widely reported (leaked, again) on all networks, that Trump is "leaning" towards leaving (he has to keep at least some of the pledges, doesn't he?), that's why IMHO solars tanked yesterday. On the announcement, there has to be a jerk reaction (in either direction).

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I think he'll stay in, for what its worth.  He may take an ax to the targets, but I don't think he'll bail out. 

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1 hour ago, sunnypease said:

Is anyone still holding JASO, other than me?

I'm trading it.  They didn't tank on earnings, so I think they have a floor in the mid-to-high 6's.  When they drop below 7, I buy a little.  When it rises above 7, I sell again quickly for a small gain.  Rinse, repeat.

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I'm starting to think that Trump won't back out of the Paris agreement.  

He likes attention.  And he wants to be liked.  

He announced a date to make his decision, so he can get all the eyes of the world on him.  How could he possibly say that he'll back out with all that attention on him?

To make Steve Bannon happy?  I thought he was going to kick that guy out.

Plus.. he already set the stage for this surprise by letting it "leak" he will probably withdraw.  

I figure he will go with Paris, but he has let the world know that it isn't a given that the US goes for it.   In this way he can make the people who are against it happy(ish) too.

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34 minutes ago, sunnypease said:

I'm starting to think that Trump won't back out of the Paris agreement.  

He likes attention.  And he wants to be liked.  

He announced a date to make his decision, so he can get all the eyes of the world on him.  How could he possibly say that he'll back out with all that attention on him?

To make Steve Bannon happy?  I thought he was going to kick that guy out.

Plus.. he already set the stage for this surprise by letting it "leak" he will probably withdraw.  

I figure he will go with Paris, but he has let the world know that it isn't a given that the US goes for it.   In this way he can make the people who are against it happy(ish) too.

I hate to get into politic, but I think you get this right.  He is like a spoil child and constantly demands attention.  His words do not carry much weight.  All the big talks about withdrawing from NAFTA, NATO and how he blamed China for everything do not materialize.  Now, he is in talk with NAFTA and supporting NATO.  He even likes China now.  The policies that he followed through does not come to much.  The ACA, the travel ban ..., all met with resistances and watered down.  Even his budget and tax policy are met with uphill battles.  So, until he actually does it, I still don't believe all the ranting about withdrawing from Paris.  Besides, he might face impeachment.

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