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I do not know about it. I bought FSLR as I believe petition makes them the winner. SW joining in represents pretty much all US manufacturing there will be tariffs.

 

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This can be potent.  Both Odyd and Explo are on the same page on FSLR. 
Regarding JKS run, this is exactly what I am afraid of.  I think JKS has run away from me.  It may not visit sub $20 again.

Do not feel bad about it I think most of us here as caught by surprise with those moves . JKS already beat my ps objective since March.

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5 hours ago, odyd said:


Solarworld joined Suniva. Just out

Sent from my SM-G950W using Tapatalk
 

I am not sure and love to know what is happening with JKS, I am skeptical of fundamentals suddenly clearing up. I know tariffs are very likely now. FSLR will be the obvious beneficiary

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2017/05/25/breaking-solarworld-joins-sunivas-trade-petition/

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We have seen this before.  It always happens with many headwinds.  If volume in JKS dies out then this was just a short term blip.  If it continues then hopefully that will get investors to their price objective and they cash out with some good gains.  Will US governmental leaders put in taffiffs on solar panels?  What happens then?  Yea, it just gets passed onto consumers.  In the end, no effect on GM.  Just a talking point for shorts in the middle of it all. 

My only point is volume indicates that something decent "might" be going on here that could take JKS much higher.  EPS for q1 is expected to be .40.  If they blow that away then could see $30 in a hurry.  

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JKS is 10% down PM (from yesterday's highs) on volume and a downgrade.

 

Volume (for JKS) before 8AM is staggering.

Edited by pg6solar

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Morgan Stanley downgraded JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. (NYSE: JKS) from Overweight to Underweight with a price target of $16.40 (from $19.40).

The analyst comments "Our preview of 1Q17 shows over 50% downside to consensus on net profit, due to lower ASP and lower margin. Forward 12-18 months outlook is still bearish with worsening overcapacity and policy uncertainties."

Citi downgraded JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. (NYSE: JKS) from Neutral to Sell with a price target of $15.00 (from $15.55).

Analyst Scott Chui comments that the recent rally outpaces the story-line attached to the company fundamentals. Chui expects the company to run into challenges in the NT as demand is set to cool off in Q3 2017.

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This Jinko stuff is insane.  I've been a bagholder for a couple of years. It's not that I don't agree that there are challenges with capacity and Trump and everything else, but when you take into account the massive move up on what amounts to 1/3 of the float and then we get a double downgrade, it just makes me scratch my head a bit.  A lot, really.  And this pre-market volume is also incredible.  Any thoughts on this?  I know the "manipulation" word is a dirty one to toss around.  Sour grapes, etc.  And its hard to think such huge volume was the result of manipulation, but any theories on how all of this recent activity now looks?  Was it just a big pump to get some profits and then let their buddies out of the stock at a higher price?  Or is there real buying and investing going on that this downgrade is masking?

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I am always suspicious when we get downgrades like this just prior to earnings release. Why not wait to get all the facts directly from the company?  Citi downgrade is simply silly.  The Morgan Stanley is more concerning but I believe the recent volume and reports of other Chinese solar company's reporting better than expected results trump it.  It looks like JKS can counter their main aruguement of a weak second half of 2017 with the massive project underway with Saudi Electric.  We will know soon enough.

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Saudi Electric is a 2019 COD target. The modules for that will probably be shipped in the late first half to second half of 2018. They will be getting some EPC contract revenue for the planning and construction management. The whole project is being built for $0.70/watt. Based on that , there is not much room for recognized EPC revenue after subs and suppliers are paid. A conservative estimate might generate gross profit on sales of modules and EPC work at $60-80M  spread over 2017-2019. That is a 6-9% margin on the overall project. This goes to show that even on Mega scale , there is little profits in projects.

Edited by SCSolar

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Ok, just bought back some csiq.

You had better senses yesterday Jet. I moved money out of FSLR to average CSIQ

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42 minutes ago, explo said:

JKS buy filled

 

Very gutsy explo!  It has recovered nicely.  I was hoping it to drop below $19 for me to buy back, but it was too strong.

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feels like a late day sell off coming.

buy jaso, jks, csiq after this morning's drop.

I don't have much hope for my small FSLR position.  But I'll go along with the logic.

 

It doesn't seem like the stocks have reacted at all to Solarworld joining the case.   I thought the reason for today's selling was the JKS "downgrade"  (PT down to 25)

Maybe this will be another delayed Tuesday reaction.  Have a good market holiday all.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-25/solarworld-americas-joins-suniva-trade-case-for-import-duties

 

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2 hours ago, Jetmoney said:

Very gutsy explo!  It has recovered nicely.  I was hoping it to drop below $19 for me to buy back, but it was too strong.

Much less than I sold yesterday at higher prices. Just a re-balancing trade..

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Thanks SCSolar--I was thinking I musta missed something big :D

On the Abu Dhabi thing I saw ~$870M loan + ~$200M equity for $1,070M total investment.  That puts project over $0.90/watt which seems like not so dire margins.

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4 minutes ago, explo said:

Much less than I sold yesterday at higher prices. Just a re-balancing trade..

Just bought back some jks, $1 discount from last sale.

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14 minutes ago, Jetmoney said:

Just bought back some jks, $1 discount from last sale.

I fear that the momentum bot trading pump & dump algorithms have found a stock they can drive on news.  

A + 10%  next day - 10% move seems rather suspicious.

Just so I don't make anyone angry at shorting JKS, I closed it yesterday after a few % gain.

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Regarding the petition... is there even enough manufacturing capacity in the US to meet US demand?

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8 minutes ago, sunnypease said:

Regarding the petition... is there even enough manufacturing capacity in the US to meet US demand?

There will be once that demand dries up because solar has spiked in price so much here thanks to Suniva, SolarWorld and Trump.  Throwing the orange clown a big fat softball. 

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3 hours ago, Mark said:

There will be once that demand dries up because solar has spiked in price so much here thanks to Suniva, SolarWorld and Trump.  Throwing the orange clown a big fat softball. 

This won't happen.

Seriously, the opposition would be very loud and very strong.  From people who pay a lot of taxes.  53% majority does not give them a blank check.  (edit: it's a 48% majority, thanks electoral college)

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8 minutes ago, sunnypease said:

Seriously, the opposition would be very loud and very strong.  From people who pay a lot of taxes.  53% majority does not give them a blank check.

 

Umm... have you been watching what he's been doing since taking office?  And you think those of us that oppose him matter?  We just make him stronger.  The chance to crush renewables and bolster fossil fuel profits and trumpet American jobs and equal trade... he can hit on so many of his nonsense points with this one case all the while tamping down Paris even if he does stay in. 

On the opposition note, I hope everyone here has taken the time to get in touch with their senators/reps and I've even emailed SW and Suniva and the ITC to express my disgust.  I always ping gov't folks on climate change, but now that we have this wrinkle, I've been calling and emailing even more.  It probably means nothing since this is all about his pen, but what else can ya do?

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1 hour ago, Jetmoney said:

Just bought back some jks, $1 discount from last sale.

Looks like good old volatile JKS is back. This should boost trading gains.

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1 hour ago, explo said:

Looks like good old volatile JKS is back. This should boost trading gains.

Yes. JKS lost today all of its gain of the last three sessions on a volume all in one day almost equals to the sum of previous three days. Manipulation? Of course not. 

Edited by pg6solar

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You know guys, these downgrades from Citi and Morgan might be quite bad for the solars.

They might reverse the bullishness that has been going since end of February.

Many people will read these downgrades and react by remembering the carnage last year because of the glut.

Curious what you all think... if this, plus all the uncertainty surrounding the petition might completely change the mood?

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2 hours ago, explo said:

Looks like good old volatile JKS is back. This should boost trading gains.

Did you dodge the falling JKS?  Or will you just double down once it falls lower?

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5 hours ago, pg6solar said:

Yes. JKS lost today all of its gain of the last three sessions on a volume all in one day almost equals to the sum of previous three days. Manipulation? Of course not. 

This was just to let the sleepy big boys in? Any speculation on what will happen next?

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