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"Solar power projects generated 395 GWh of electricity, an increase of 20.8% from the second quarter of 2016 and an increase of 69.0% from the third quarter of 2015. Total revenues generated from solar power projects were RMB372.4 million (US$55.8 million), an increase of 29.1% from the second quarter of 2016 and an increase of 81.0% from the third quarter of 2015"

50% margin, that's $28 million profit in power? real profit 45.8-28=18 million?

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9 minutes ago, yiandrewli said:

"Solar power projects generated 395 GWh of electricity, an increase of 20.8% from the second quarter of 2016 and an increase of 69.0% from the third quarter of 2015. Total revenues generated from solar power projects were RMB372.4 million (US$55.8 million), an increase of 29.1% from the second quarter of 2016 and an increase of 81.0% from the third quarter of 2015"

50% margin, that's $28 million profit in power? real profit 45.8-28=18 million?

Where does your 45.8 come from?

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Non-GAAP net income attributable to the Company's ordinary shareholders in the third quarter of 2016 was RMB305.8 million (US$45.8 million), compared with RMB421.8 million in the second quarter of 2016 and RMB253.3 million in the third quarter of 2015.

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17 minutes ago, yiandrewli said:

Non-GAAP net income attributable to the Company's ordinary shareholders in the third quarter of 2016 was RMB305.8 million (US$45.8 million), compared with RMB421.8 million in the second quarter of 2016 and RMB253.3 million in the third quarter of 2015.

What is your conclusion?  I'm not understanding you.  Sorry if I'm a bit dim here.

Do you think JKS results can be trusted?  Are they masking problems?

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Just the fact, they have a lot of profit from power generation, which was not cash but IOUs from Chinese government and most probably will not be there in the future. They sold business in Oct. They are still profitable which is very positive, but not as glory as this qtr looks.

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It maybe a signal that for few names glut I'd not a concern. I will check FSLR guidance, wait for csiq results, should not expect better than JKS, and perhaps increase price target to buy it.

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk

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On 11/16/2016 at 2:10 PM, yiandrewli said:

Just the fact, they have a lot of profit from power generation, which was not cash but IOUs from Chinese government and most probably will not be there in the future. They sold business in Oct. They are still profitable which is very positive, but not as glory as this qtr looks.

OK, thanks for that Andrew. 

Looks like the market doesn't think its so glorious either.  up 6%   CN solar stocks just can't win.   

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8 minutes ago, odyd said:

It maybe a signal that for few names glut I'd not a concern. I will check FSLR guidance, wait for csiq results, should not expect better than JKS, and perhaps increase price target to buy it.

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk
 

The thing with the CN solars is that China will cut down the subsidies significantly and hence people are pulling forward orders in order to still qualify for the greater subsidy. That'd explain the numbers from JKS similar to how FSLR at one point explained good numbers as a result of people expecting the ITC to expire (before it was extended).

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The thing with the CN solars is that China will cut down the subsidies significantly and hence people are pulling forward orders in order to still qualify for the greater subsidy. That'd explain the numbers from JKS similar to how FSLR at one point explained good numbers as a result of people expecting the ITC to expire (before it was extended).

They said they see strong Q1 17, after that this could be already resolving

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk

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fool.com (travis) has an article about internal rates of return for renewable projects going up.

It made me question PEGI's 8.3 % dividend.

http://www.fool.com/investing/2016/11/16/forget-trump-this-is-whats-really-hurting-solar-st.aspx

the rates of return for CAFD purchased projects are:  7.7,  7.9,  9.7%    

So how can PEGI offer 8.3% dividend?

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8 minutes ago, sunnypease said:

Robert -

  FSLR just hit 30 / share.  This was your target for the downturn.  Buying?

Matt

Just stay away. It is just a roll of the dice as to them being visble in 2018 with their serries 6. Can see it hitting low 20s soon if this Trump rally were to even wake up to the reality of him being president. 

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It's pretty sad.  CdTe is the only technology that is itself not requiring large amounts of energy (cheap chinese coal)

Too bad their business types are kind of lame. Just not scrappy enough.  Too pampered.   The CFO makes 350k. something like that.

If this were China, those guys would be working 24 hours a day to improve their factory.  4 months not 16 months.

Or are they counting on some scientific breakthrough to deliver Series 6?

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Yes, it was on their IR site.  I think they mentioned it in Q3 CC.

Yup I thought of shorting as well.  I mean what news from a solar company is good news these days, right?

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Might be still worth a short.  Essentially they are a startup business again.  With some technology that is going to be great.

They have 1 billion cash?  Company now worth 2.4 billion?  If their tech is actually good, they could get bought.

Other techs coming out now though too.  Perovskite cells?  organic modules? CGIS from solar frontier?

 

I think SPWR CEO is taking a $1 / year salary.  How about FSLRs?

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Interested to see how PEGI takes this news.  I started a PEGI position, but I'm afraid the market doesn't realize that solar company problems don't have much to do with existing power contracts.  If anything, equipment gets cheaper.

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I can see FSLR getting bought out in the next couple of years as they are again a 'gamble' and the markets will no longer float them a high PE as they are a tenured citizen. Lack of PE respect means they can't issue equity to raise cash which they will inevitably need

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2 hours ago, sunnypease said:

Robert -

  FSLR just hit 30 / share.  This was your target for the downturn.  Buying?

Matt

The Company also provided full year 2017 financial guidance. Forecasted net sales for 2017 are $2.5 to $2.6 billion, with solar power systems net sales expected to comprise 70% to 75% of the total net sales and third party module sales the remainder. GAAP earnings per share is forecasted to be between ($0.10) and $0.45,

I hope you see no reason to pay $28 for this. BIPV is right.

 

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Remember how they told you their product is so efficient? How do they have to write down up to $585M.All the BS about high margins. Wow, I feel more cheated than what JKS did, not being able to figure out own gross margin. 

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7 hours ago, sunnypease said:

fool.com (travis) has an article about internal rates of return for renewable projects going up.

It made me question PEGI's 8.3 % dividend.

http://www.fool.com/investing/2016/11/16/forget-trump-this-is-whats-really-hurting-solar-st.aspx

the rates of return for CAFD purchased projects are:  7.7,  7.9,  9.7%    

So how can PEGI offer 8.3% dividend?

You should not confuse things. What do a share price and dividend yield have to do with project return CAFD?

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1 hour ago, sunnypease said:

It'll be interesting to hear tomorrow what tesla has to say about Solarcity in the wake of Trump.

The takeover of SolarCity is done deal, anyone considering voting against it needs to see what happen to FSLR. That would do the trick.

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There is a plenty of money in FSLR's cash account, but there is no future in the stock for two years. The competitive edge has dulled so quickly I am not even sure what happen here. JKS, when selling mostly to China, may end up having bad 2017, but to make 10 cents neg whole year should not be in her future.

FSLR'a surprising fall moves the company closer to conditions of SPWR level, just with more cash. That money will be spent like nuts to get the series 6 out, again $800M price tag I recall. It sounds like it can break them if this goes nowhere in efficiency, or too late to match progress in poly. There is no revenue growth without capacity growth. Sounds dead end like.

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Judging the lukewarm reaction, either everyone is out of the stock or most are so pissed about it. I hope no financial harm was experienced by anyone, we have been on this for some time, so I hope you have protected yourself.

FSLR and JKS are in the price range devised by me.  FSLR is not a bargain, at $0.45 earnings for 2017, and judging by no growth in 2018, probably a loss, at $28 per share we need to use distances borrowed from astronomy to describe the PE. 

JKS has also surprised me. They have done fantastic, but its Chinese origin is not going to pay up for it. It has never done that in the past, so I expect nothing different going in the future.

What is interesting to me, Canadian which I think will flat out Q3 and do so so in Q4 could be getting more interest if they can squeeze decent earnings for 2017. I have in mind the Japanese IPO. A stock which I think will start from under $10 can do wonders in comparison to 24 months of poor FSLR and SPWR. TSL going private will also have few with cash hoping to put their money to work in another solar stock. So between now and end of Q1 (TSL move out), if CSIQ gets under $10, I could be buying it.

 Looking at the drop after hours in JKS and CSIQ and what I expect a Greek tragedy by the JASO company in the morning, that $10 could arrive too soon.

Of course, PEGI needs to hold a bit strength, which I hope it will.

 

 

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14 hours ago, yiandrewli said:

"Solar power projects generated 395 GWh of electricity, an increase of 20.8% from the second quarter of 2016 and an increase of 69.0% from the third quarter of 2015. Total revenues generated from solar power projects were RMB372.4 million (US$55.8 million), an increase of 29.1% from the second quarter of 2016 and an increase of 81.0% from the third quarter of 2015"

50% margin, that's $28 million profit in power? real profit 45.8-28=18 million?

Where did you get the 50% net margin from? Gross profit at 34m and interest expense at 19m (slide 11) caps net profit from Power at 15m.

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2 minutes ago, explo said:

Where did you get the 50% net margin from? Gross profit at 34m and interest expense at 19m (slide 11) caps net profit from Power at 15m.

Think I heard in CC, don't know if after interest payment.

If it's before, your are right.. Interest's also out with the sale, power loan interest should also be in new profit

thx.

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I am hoping that FSLR can work some techno wizardry.  CdTe is truly a better tech as it requires less energy.  I'm not sure about end of life issues with CdTe & the environment however.

These articles make it sound that 30% efficient CdTe is possible.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/02/160229135331.htm

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/08/160803151207.htm

 However, looking at FSLR's hiring page you don't see any offers for actual CdTe material engineers.  I am afraid that FSLR is run by financial / business types, not enough science & engineering guys.  Who knows.

 

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