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dydo

Trading Solars

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18 hours ago, odyd said:

Power generation supposedly was going to replace seasonality in manufacturing but also establish long term investment benefit for the owners. No yieldcos no ipo no lasting value.

Back to square one.

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk

Sad but true for JKS.  Really don't understand management's thinking here.

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JKS buy filled

Are you buying JKS cause of low price or because you see it run up into earnings?
I suspect earnings to be weak this quarter what do you suspect?


Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, odyd said:


Are you buying JKS cause of low price or because you see it run up into earnings?
I suspect earnings to be weak this quarter what do you suspect?


Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk
 

Not fundamentals or ER tactics based. Just rebalancing trading relative PPS moves of my names. I think CSIQ and JASO ran more than JKS recently.

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13 hours ago, pg6solar said:

CSIQ did run a lot more than JKS, but not JASO.

It's relative to my entry timing in the two names. I entered both on Sep19 and, as I wrote then, with a feeling the JKS entry timing was slightly premature. Thus the JKS entry was smaller and only 3% of my portfolio compared to 4% for CSIQand JASO. After latest PPS moves and rebalancing trades they are all at 4%. From that entry a little less than a month ago my better timed JASO entry is up 11% vs 3% for JKS were I did not hit the exact bottom.

 

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38 minutes ago, Pop2mollys said:

Loaded CSIQ at about 15.60 average today.  First time in a solar in about 4-5 months.  

Welcome back to bipolar (sorry I mean solar) land Pop! Congrats on skipping the trip down to hell this time (let's hope we're not still on it).

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4 hours ago, explo said:

Welcome back to bipolar (sorry I mean solar) land Pop! Congrats on skipping the trip down to hell this time (let's hope we're not still on it).

Thanks explo.  I'm actually excited to be back in sector!  I think last time I owned a solar was 3-4 months ago at least.  Great to see reversal in spot prices.  That's what lured me back in.  As long as spot prices keep going up I think sector will at these depressed prices.

Edited by Pop2mollys

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15 minutes ago, odyd said:

Did anyone see news on CSIQ buying interest in Indian solar plants? the 49% interest is about $4M for 30MW

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/power/canadian-solar-buys-49-each-in-2-suzlon-units/articleshow/54952603.cms

They haven't put it in a PR yet as far as I can see.  I wonder if this is a start of a trend buying into projects?

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On 10/20/2016 at 1:34 PM, Pop2mollys said:

Loaded CSIQ at about 15.60 average today.  First time in a solar in about 4-5 months.  

Just added more CSIQ below my last buy just now.  Adding in anticipation of confirmed reversal of module pricing Wednesday morning.  

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1 hour ago, Pop2mollys said:

Just added more CSIQ below my last buy just now.  Adding in anticipation of confirmed reversal of module pricing Wednesday morning.  

One more block filled @15.39.   

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Hi Pop, all the best with your buys, but why not wait for Q3 results? We know they will be weak, and the market will pull back as it always does. The problem is that Q4 will not turn. While prices in China can go up, serious buyers will wait till Q1 to reduce any lifts in the current price range.

Johnson is selling short pretending to go long. I am almost certain that is his game now.

SolarWorld and Solargiga were reporting its numbers.  Of course Canadian is not one income stream, but I would be careful. Too many unknowns about the situation and I think we saw two weeks of trap setting. Glut is real, so I cannot see companies improving their gross margin. Just saying...

http://www.pv-tech.org/news/solarworld-discards-revenue-and-profit-guidance-for-2016

  • Upvote 1

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I take any of Solarworlds issues with a grain of Salt. They have never been a leading indicator. A huge amount of negativity has already been baked into the sector. I wouldn't extrapolate their problems and spread it to rest of sector. The overcapacity situation is old news.  The new news is this surprise sharp reversal of spot prices. I would be stunned if Solar stocks fell as spot prices rose.  Based on historical movements and consider these depressed levels I firmly believe they will move in lockstep. I'm cautious though and  I plan on being on sidelines for earnings to get more clarity.  But until then I'm long.  I appreciate your fair warning as I have a tremendous amount of respect for you. Let's see how this plays out.  This is nothing more than a trade to ride the reversal in pricing while it continues.  Any signs pricing weakening again and I will have a quick trigger.  Personally though, I believe there is a lot of meat left on the bone to the upside.  

Edited by Pop2mollys

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Another reason why solars could run short term...

" Progressive lawmakers in Congress next year are likely to introduce a bevy of subsidies and tax credits designed to boost solar power."

https://www.thestreet.com/story/13860242/1/the-clinton-factor-5-stocks-that-could-thrive-if-she-is-elected.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO&yptr=yahoo

Edited by Pop2mollys

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Odyd, Pop, I think the market is well aware that a couple of bad quarters will be reported from the glut as PPS has already been significantly adjusted down for this. It is also aware that though the business impact of the glut is still to be reported that business condition is reversing now and the market likes to be ahead of the reports.

The bigger question is how much of what has been earned between the gluts will be lost, i.e do we only still have serious profit volatility or do we also still have a problem growing retained earnings over cycles? If they can show that there actually is some decent retained earnings growth as reward for the profit volatility this time around, i.e that the sector is getting healthier, I think the PPS will do much better than if they cannot.

Thus I expect PPS volatility at ER, but I don't expect that poor results will automatically have negative PPS effect as that is already expected. Rather the market will look at if the losses are bigger or less than expected i.e. how much of retained earnings are expected to be lost before it can grow again.

Edited by explo

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1 hour ago, Pop2mollys said:

I'm starting to regret my decision already, lol.  

Let's see the numbers tomorrow first. How will the market react to knowing that the industry healing process has begun while the injury report is still due? If reported injury is not worse than feared then the fact that the uncertainty about when the bleeding will stop and healing process begin has been eliminated should drive down the risk premiums in the stocks.

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31 minutes ago, explo said:

Let's see the numbers tomorrow first. How will the market react to knowing that the industry healing process has begun while the injury report is still due? If reported injury is not worse than feared then the fact that the uncertainty about when the bleeding will stop and healing process begin has been eliminated should drive down the risk premiums in the stocks.

Yeah I feel like I'm entering anxiety hell with high risk, high reward sector.  I got very spoiled outside sector and I come back and right away I feel the downside pressure. Ahhhhh the traders life, lol.  Contemplating starting a position in JKS today also before we see spot numbers tomorrow.  It run about half as much as CSIQ over the past couple weeks.  

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2 hours ago, Pop2mollys said:

Yeah I feel like I'm entering anxiety hell with high risk, high reward sector.  I got very spoiled outside sector and I come back and right away I feel the downside pressure. Ahhhhh the traders life, lol.  Contemplating starting a position in JKS today also before we see spot numbers tomorrow.  It run about half as much as CSIQ over the past couple weeks.  

I know the feeling. I've already a year ago reduced my exposure to individual stocks to 25%. Maybe that's why I don't feel too uncomfortable having all of it in solar.

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5 hours ago, explo said:

Let's see the numbers tomorrow first. How will the market react to knowing that the industry healing process has begun while the injury report is still due? If reported injury is not worse than feared then the fact that the uncertainty about when the bleeding will stop and healing process begin has been eliminated should drive down the risk premiums in the stocks.

Yes, it's a bit strange that solar stocks have been weak the past few days, even though hints of improving prices are publicly known.  Let's hope the report tomorrow is the "official" confirmation that reverses this trend.

I also wonder what the heck is going on with SUNE, TERP, and GLBL.  TERP has been weak (slowly dribbling downwards), GLBL pretty constant, but volume on both is anemic.  SUNE was supposed to announce plans for an auction of both last month.  I understand that's what everyone's waiting for--but why are they now nearly 2 months overdue with that announcement?  What could they possibly be waiting for NOW?  (Then again, it's now been ONE YEAR since they last released financials.)

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4 hours ago, explo said:

JASO buy filled

Explo, I am thinking to add JASO at this level. I am curious what's your take on JASO's valuation relative to TSL right now. TSL is going private at $11. JASO CEO offered $9 a long time ago, which gives a big upside based on current stock price if the buyout comes through. Maybe the CEO wants to low ball the shareholders again, but I don't think he can go below the fair valuation relative to TSL. Thank you in advance for your opinion.

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5 hours ago, Koolinv said:

Explo, I am thinking to add JASO at this level. I am curious what's your take on JASO's valuation relative to TSL right now. TSL is going private at $11. JASO CEO offered $9 a long time ago, which gives a big upside based on current stock price if the buyout comes through. Maybe the CEO wants to low ball the shareholders again, but I don't think he can go below the fair valuation relative to TSL. Thank you in advance for your opinion.

Here it is still cheapest. PB 0.3. PE 3. The low valuation is its main trait. It doesn't lack profitability and growth though, which makes the low valuation relevant and easily qualifying for investment in my portfolio when it is this much below the offering price.

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35 minutes ago, Pop2mollys said:

Poly, wafer, and cell continue to spike but no follow through to modules. 

 

http://wap.pvinsights.com/

Yup, saw that too. Even those who claimed spiking China PV module prices report flat module prices: http://pv.energytrend.com/pricequotes.html

The spike in cell prices they report is quite spectacular with double digits..

Edited by explo

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those are results of the available inventory. Modules seem to stock up while materials are being produced for the demand.

The existing imbalance in the value chain  supports running out of wafers, cells etc first. However, the nature of the material and its quality has also a lot to do with it.

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