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55 minutes ago, odyd said:

Chinese are selling at $0.36 per watt in India, unless this is selling off by t2 and t3s owning solar just got worse

http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/india--imported-solar-module-prices-plunge-to-36-us-cents-per-watt-peak_100026178/#axzz4KkTUW6aI

Anti-dumping case coming..

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However, the price deterioration is too rapid as it appears. India seems to be absorbing all tier 2 and 3 inventories, as they see no difference in quality or efficiency ratings for their plants. I doubt this stream of good is going to last, as nobody, I am not aware can produce that cheap and make money, however, the damage is done to ASP.

ASP dropping 15% in three months, versus my estimates of 11% in half a year, is going to potentially cause loss of earnings now. 

In light of it, prices I have offered my not stand to reality. 

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Interesting day yesterday, Solar went up,about raising equity for yieldco and helping the parents. So yieldcos are good not manufacturers.

Solar stocks will show what is happening in the markets by Q3, and Q4 results.

I gambled and bought PEGI yesterday, to get the dividend in October, I am 100% in it again.

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From Recharge news:
There are signs that healthier US yieldcos are beginning to separate themselves from the rest of the pack, says Christopher Radtke, managing director for power, gas & renewables at Credit Suisse.

This week 8point3 Energy Partners, the yieldco of First Solar and SunPower, announced it will issue and sell new shares to help fund its purchase of a stake in the 102MW Henrietta solar project in California.

8point3 is the latest US renewables yieldco to move to raise capital on the public-equity markets in recent weeks, following a long drought that began amid the collapse of SunEdison.

SunEdison's spectacular collapse called into question the underlying model of its own two yieldcos, TerraForm Power and TerraForm Global, which hammered share prices across the young yieldco sector, locking many companies out of the public-equity markets.

But lately things have started turning around.

Earlier this month NextEra Energy Partners issued shares to buy a stake in the Desert Sunlight solar project, following Pattern Energy’s share-issuance in August.

Meanwhile, NRG Yield recently launched an At-The-Market programme that could see it issuing shares of its own.

“We’ve started seeing some yieldcos – Pattern and NextEra, to name some names – doing large capital raises in the equity markets to fund drop downs,” Radtke said Thursday at an industry conference in New York.

“Perhaps there’s a little bit of an understanding now that you can look at the actual core operating assets and growth profile [of individual yieldcos], and what people have delivered over time, and maybe you can now differentiate among the players,” Radtke says.

While yieldco share prices remain well off their highs of several years ago, many have recovered substantial ground since bottoming out in the wake of SunEdison’s collapse.

8point3 will sell 7 million Class A shares for $14.65 apiece, while a year ago its shares traded at less than $10.50. However, the company's stock price is still well below its $21 IPO price.

8point3 expects the offering to bring in gross proceeds of $102.6m, which will be used to fund the acquisition of a 49% stake in the 102MW Henrietta PV plant in California.

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Impressed with manufacturers' gains. Interesting, is this bait?

I am not buying but I feel as awkward at this point. 

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Yes, an interesting situation.  The business outlook for manufacturers should neither have significantly improved nor deteriorated recently, but they've been on a tear the past week--but on average volume.  I chalk it up to just another sign that many times, the share price direction of these companies has nothing to do with their underlying business fundamentals.  We saw that plenty of times when we still had access to CEDR data.

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The outlook for 2017 still looks horrible, but a stock is not priced for the profits of one year (then the PPS would simply be next years EPS plus adjusted book value per share), so who knows where the market will move the price. Usually fear drives it down when near term outlook is horrible, which has already happened for some time considering CSIQ traded in the 30's a year ago, but when the sentiment of whether PPS is too high or low changes is hard to know.

 

Edited by explo

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You have two things going on but price action will dictate if this move is for real.  We have better news on new supply being flat and stabilization of prices due to demand rush in China before FIT cuts in Q1 2017.  This gives us potential for an exciting short term trade.  We could see 50%+ moves from currently depressed prices in names like CSIQ, FSLR, & JKS.  Of course we all know those could prove to be much larger if history repeats itself.  At least we have a bit of hope for a change.  GLTA

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Update from Gintech, it appears that market pricing is recovering, however, I have a feeling that we are looking at the trap. I am not in the market for mfgs, and it looks like a missed boat on my actions, but I see no changes long term, and we have not seen effects of the ASP drops on financial results or guidance yet. If I was in the market, I would use current moves probably try to capitalize on the gains.  This is of course just my view so anyone should build their own take.

Gintech Energy Corporation announced its unaudited monthly revenue for September 2016.

 

Net sales in September 2016 were NT$716 million, an increase of 18.6% month-over-month from NT$604 million in August 2016, and a decrease of 48.4% year-over-year from NT$1,387 million in September 2015. On a quarterly basis, net sales in Q3/2016 were NT$2,167 million, a decrease of 53.1% quarter-over-quarter from NT$4,624 million in Q2/2016 and a decrease of 49.6% year-over-year from NT$4,301 million in Q3/2015.

 

Our monthly revenue increased sequentially driven by strong shipment recovery despite lower ASP. Demand from China stalled in Q3/2016 due to the transition of 2015/2016 policies and thus triggered severe inventory correction. However, volumes picked up significantly in late Sep/2016 after the industry digested excessive inventory in Q3/2016, especially for high efficiency products.

 

As Chinese demand for 2016 has kicked off and is expected to sustain into 1H/2017, we are seeing order momentum and pricing stabilization entering Q4/2016. In addition, after the correction, emerging markets, such as India, are reacting positively to the attractive price points. We believe the lowering solar electricity costs which leads to grid parity can open up more markets.

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Yes, it's impossible to know if the current uptrend in manufacturers will continue, or if they will fall back down.  We should have more clarity after they report Q3, and update guidance for Q4 and 2017.

I've been having some luck trading the volatility associated with the current uptick in various names (TERP, GLBL, RUN, and even a little CSIQ).  It's not much, but at least I'm not losing money, and it pays the margin interest while I'm waiting for a larger recovery.

Hope everyone else out there is also doing well!

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Axiom is not seeing a glut, yes both PEGI and NYLD are weak, testing my patience. I think it has to do with regulatory environment about yieldcos, and ITC and inquires about it.

https://www.thestreet.com/story/13843717/1/china-s-incentive-cuts-mean-the-time-to-buy-solar-is-now.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

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5 minutes ago, sac_solar said:

its so strange to see Gordon raise rating on Chinese solar companies

Is this the same Gordo who just a couple weeks ago said to SHORT Trina?

Although I'll cut him some slack--he couldn't have known about the Chinese FIT cut, and the logic about a near-term bounce makes sense.  Best to know when to admit a mistake and reverse course.

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Some nice moves last week. Already up 16% on the JASO entry. The JKS entry was a few days premature and is only up 2%.

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Was a nice rebound, but I favor share prices will head back down, perhaps after next ERs..

as Explo said, 2017 agenda still looks horrible, and this runup could be bait..

I'm considering to sell if JKS goes over 18 before ER, to rebuy it at 14 later..

 

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Is Jinko selling it's power business for $250M? All of the work for this?

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk

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There is 1 billion debt in BS of Jinko Power as of Q2 ER... That means  $ 1,3 /W for the 55% stake hold by JKS.

Not bad...

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I suppose no more paper money, is this the model, just a manufacturing; CSIQ I see sold 80% interest in Brazilian plant so plant ownership no longer a value

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk


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1 hour ago, odyd said:

Is Jinko selling it's power business for $250M? All of the work for this?

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk
 

We kind of knew this for a long-time, that they were not seeing project development and electricity generation asset holding as their core business. TSL seems much more committed to fully own these business segments and thus being the long-term growthco I'm looking for. Unfortunately their shares will no longer be an option offered to US investors.

 

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36 minutes ago, explo said:

We kind of knew this for a long-time, that they were not seeing project development and electricity generation asset holding as their core business. TSL seems much more committed to fully own these business segments and thus being the long-term growthco I'm looking for. Unfortunately their shares will no longer be an option offered to US investors.

 

So JKS is back to being a straight manufacturer, in a market where what they make has become a pure commodity with still-shrinking margins.  Wow.

I still have some JKS shares in a retirement account purchased in the 18s.  Next time they're above that, I'll be selling those--JKS just dropped off my long-term hold list.  They may still be good for short-term (day/swing) trading, though.

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2 hours ago, odyd said:

Is Jinko selling it's power business for $250M? All of the work for this?
 

Yes, disappointing, electricity generation asset was an exciting business with high margins potential, I guess they need to improve their BS to face the incoming glut..

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Yes, disappointing, electricity generation asset was an exciting business with high margins potential, I guess they need to improve their BS to face the incoming glut..

Power generation supposedly was going to replace seasonality in manufacturing but also establish long term investment benefit for the owners. No yieldcos no ipo no lasting value.

Back to square one. Just ahead another destructive period in lack of demand versus supply. Unfortunately yieldcos are also doing poorly, so no benefit in holding it either.

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk

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