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1 minute ago, disdaniel said:

Tomorrow is option expirations right?  Wonder if this is all an option play...

Could be, but for FSLR there was a MASSIVE call option opened (at ask price) after the plunge from SPWR's ER for August $40, and look where FSLR is now.. Very hard to time these names in the options market.

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17 minutes ago, disdaniel said:

Tomorrow is option expirations right?  Wonder if this is all an option play...

I thought options expire third Friday of the month.  Does it really expire tomorrow?

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13 minutes ago, Jetmoney said:

I thought options expire third Friday of the month.  Does it really expire tomorrow?

Whoops! Today is still only Wednesday, huh?....*sigh*

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2 hours ago, odyd said:

short of miracle CSIQ is going to be pressured tomorrow.

Miracles have nothing to do with it.  All CSIQ has to do is provide information on how they will monetize their projects.  (I know, I'm a broken record on this.  Truth hurts.)  If all they do is show another few pennies profit selling modules (or God forbid, a loss), and still say nothing about their projects--look out below.

The situation is completely in CSIQ management's control.  And surely they know this by now.  So let's see if they care....

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2 hours ago, odyd said: short of miracle CSIQ is going to be pressured tomorrow.

Miracles have nothing to do with it.  All CSIQ has to do is provide information on how they will monetize their projects.  (I know, I'm a broken record on this.  Truth hurts.)  If all they do is show another few pennies profit selling modules (or God forbid, a loss), and still say nothing about their projects--look out below.

The situation is completely in CSIQ management's control.  And surely they know this by now.  So let's see if they care....

The miracle is required to convince that any action by company can stop selling. They gave you how, I am not sure if you read q1 release. They told what they may sell, they said what GM they would expect, short of pre announcing EPS which they never do what else you expect?

I expect $400m of plant sales with GM of 20% in H2. Since I assume everyone read the same, and stock sold, things can only get worse, GM is less, plants are not going to be sold, hence miracle is required, facts do not matter, even if they are expected.

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25 minutes ago, odyd said:

 

Miracles have nothing to do with it.  All CSIQ has to do is provide information on how they will monetize their projects.  (I know, I'm a broken record on this.  Truth hurts.)  If all they do is show another few pennies profit selling modules (or God forbid, a loss), and still say nothing about their projects--look out below.

The situation is completely in CSIQ management's control.  And surely they know this by now.  So let's see if they care....

 

 

 

The miracle is required to convince that any action by company can stop selling. They gave you how, I am not sure if you read q1 release. They told what they may sell, they said what GM they would expect, short of pre announcing EPS which they never do what else you expect?

 

I expect $400m of plant sales with GM of 20% in H2. Since I assume everyone read the same, and stock sold, things can only get worse, GM is less, plants are not going to be sold, hence miracle is required, facts do not matter, even if they are expected.

 

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The catch is that even with those sales they won't hit the expected earnings in H2, but at this point does the market care? It is really hard to understand solar movements right now as CSIQ is the only one with consistent volume and it almost always going down. I think what they really need to show us how quickly their module costs are going down with the crash in cells/wafers outpacing thoses in modules.  

Right now SPWR has scared the market on plants and JASO has scared it on falling costs. Tomorrow we find out if CSIQ has a strategy for dealing with either of these. I believe they do and added 8k shares this morning at 12.80 to add to my prior 2K shares I added at 13.05. 

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1 hour ago, odyd said:

The miracle is required to convince that any action by company can stop selling. They gave you how, I am not sure if you read q1 release. They told what they may sell, they said what GM they would expect, short of pre announcing EPS which they never do what else you expect?

I did indeed read the Q1 release.  They said they would sell "some" plants, and "may consider selling more."

Wow, I'm totally overwhelmed by that level of detail!

They do give some projections of revenues and margins, but then promptly disavow it all by stating that project resale values may change.  Excuse me??  You committed to building multi-million dollar projects and you don't have a firm selling price fixed in a contract????  Or are they doing what Explo suggested--building some with the intention of keeping them (so no contract to sell them)?  If so, where's the breakdown of which projects they intend to sell vs. which they intend to keep?

Their Q1 release raises more questions than it answers.  I truly think that's the market's complaint with CSIQ right now, and until they address it, the pain will continue.

It will be interesting to see how JKS fares up to and going into their earnings call.  Not sure they have a more detailed business outlook than CSIQ.  But at least their earnings have been consistent.  CSIQ's have been all over the place.  That's why I think the market is punishing their lack of clarity--everyone wants to know when CSIQ will get back to a consistent level of quarterly earnings, and you just can't tell from the information they give you.  JKS may not give much information either, but since they continue to maintain their earnings, the market is willing to give them a pass on their lack of clarity.

IMO, anyway.

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2 hours ago, solarpete said:

I did indeed read the Q1 release.  They said they would sell "some" plants, and "may consider selling more."

Wow, I'm totally overwhelmed by that level of detail!

They do give some projections of revenues and margins, but then promptly disavow it all by stating that project resale values may change.  Excuse me??  You committed to building multi-million dollar projects and you don't have a firm selling price fixed in a contract????  Or are they doing what Explo suggested--building some with the intention of keeping them (so no contract to sell them)?  If so, where's the breakdown of which projects they intend to sell vs. which they intend to keep?

Their Q1 release raises more questions than it answers.  I truly think that's the market's complaint with CSIQ right now, and until they address it, the pain will continue.

It will be interesting to see how JKS fares up to and going into their earnings call.  Not sure they have a more detailed business outlook than CSIQ.  But at least their earnings have been consistent.  CSIQ's have been all over the place.  That's why I think the market is punishing their lack of clarity--everyone wants to know when CSIQ will get back to a consistent level of quarterly earnings, and you just can't tell from the information they give you.  JKS may not give much information either, but since they continue to maintain their earnings, the market is willing to give them a pass on their lack of clarity.

IMO, anyway.

Reading your statements, I have two observations based on my experience. One, the company you are looking to offer such details does not exist. Any competitive edge would be virtually given away, and any negotiations would be damaged.  Two, I have done a lot of tracking of solar companies, and CSIQ must be the most transparent, when it comes to its solar plant category, even to the degree they offered you description, where, what, estimated value and the GM for any potential transaction. No organization offers similar levels of detail, outside of annual filing and mostly only after the fact.

I am not sure if I understand your argument about disclaimers and more over about the contracts. The price would fluctuate with the market. How would they have a contract on solar plants which they intend to put into a yieldco? They have openly sold what they considered worth not carrying on the balance sheet and kept the residuals. They kept everything else. That everything else would require negotiations, as it was set aside for yieldco and hence the value can be only estimated without the firm pricing.

Tomorrow, I am looking to a similar level of disclosure with more precise announcements as they bring sales on line and of course if they agree to sell.

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Long term charts show some support/congestion right here at 10 to 12 bucks, so CSIQ could easily bounce from here, given the extreme bearish news. I'm still on the sidelines till there is greater clarity on supply/demand balance. Good luck to all tomorrow.

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12 hours ago, odyd said:

Reading your statements, I have two observations based on my experience. One, the company you are looking to offer such details does not exist. Any competitive edge would be virtually given away, and any negotiations would be damaged.  Two, I have done a lot of tracking of solar companies, and CSIQ must be the most transparent, when it comes to its solar plant category, even to the degree they offered you description, where, what, estimated value and the GM for any potential transaction. No organization offers similar levels of detail, outside of annual filing and mostly only after the fact.

I am not sure if I understand your argument about disclaimers and more over about the contracts. The price would fluctuate with the market. How would they have a contract on solar plants which they intend to put into a yieldco? They have openly sold what they considered worth not carrying on the balance sheet and kept the residuals. They kept everything else. That everything else would require negotiations, as it was set aside for yieldco and hence the value can be only estimated without the firm pricing.

Tomorrow, I am looking to a similar level of disclosure with more precise announcements as they bring sales on line and of course if they agree to sell.

You're right in that a company itself usually doesn't give that kind of detail.  Instead, analysts try to calculate it for themselves--that's their job, to provide a rationale for valuing the company at a certain level.  And that's exactly what experts like yourself and many others on this forum did with the CEDR data.  Before every earnings report, we had at least half a dozen contributors share their calculations of expected EPS.  We don't have that now.  True, we don't have CEDR data, but the switch to retained projects makes that data less relevant.

There is value in retained projects.  The question on everyone's mind is, how much?  My point is that the company isn't giving us enough information to properly answer that question.  Stating a resale value of x million dollars is useless if you don't intend to sell them.  If you do, when?  Next quarter?  Five years from now?  These factors play a significant role in the ongoing profitability of the company.

Anyway, good news this morning.  Still no details on project sales, but maybe the market will look past it.  All I really want is a floor on the share price, so I can try to do a little "stealing deck chairs off the Titanic" day/swing trading.  I've been leery of that while they continued to decline day after day.

Good luck to us all!

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16 hours ago, BIPV Investor said:

The catch is that even with those sales they won't hit the expected earnings in H2, but at this point does the market care? It is really hard to understand solar movements right now as CSIQ is the only one with consistent volume and it almost always going down. I think what they really need to show us how quickly their module costs are going down with the crash in cells/wafers outpacing thoses in modules.  

Right now SPWR has scared the market on plants and JASO has scared it on falling costs. Tomorrow we find out if CSIQ has a strategy for dealing with either of these. I believe they do and added 8k shares this morning at 12.80 to add to my prior 2K shares I added at 13.05. 

Exited my CSIQ. Back to holding no solars. Good luck to anyone still holding on to CSIQ it is so beaten down that it might run some. Just after getting such a solid overnight trade, I'm not going to get greedy.

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Glad to see good price action for CSIQ this morning. Maybe a little short covering is going on? Anyhow, exited all my CSIQ. Will buy back at $12 if it ever happens again. Good luck to all longs.

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I sold CSIQ before yesterday so did not get hit yesterday nor gained today. They are managing well, but I think this lift will tumble. I am looking into a Q2 17 as the point of clarity. I bought NYLD today and plan stay with us yieldcos until the time.

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21 hours ago, explo said:

I'm actually quite excited about CSIQ and think about whether to pull the trigger to move half FSLR into it. It wouldn't be prudent to make such a massive buy the day before ER though. If it dips a lot relative to FSLR after ER I will likely make the move if I think the dip is unwarranted.

Should have pulled the trigger yesterday..

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1 hour ago, BIPV Investor said:

Exited my CSIQ. Back to holding no solars. Good luck to anyone still holding on to CSIQ it is so beaten down that it might run some. Just after getting such a solid overnight trade, I'm not going to get greedy.

Congratulations on an excellent trade!  Taking a significant position before ER took guts, no matter how beaten-down it already was.  It could easily have gone the other way.  I'm glad it worked out for you!

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28 minutes ago, explo said:

Should have pulled the trigger yesterday..

Shoulda/woulda/coulda -- don't beat yourself up about it.  It was a 50/50 shot--it could have tanked just as easily.  You have good discipline sticking to your strategy.  Don't second-guess yourself because of one "missed" opportunity--there's a new opportunity SOMEWHERE every day.  Better to avoid catastrophic losses than miss out on the occasional big hit.

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1 hour ago, explo said:

Should have pulled the trigger yesterday..

The question is: now what should we do about this good jump? Should we move some out into other stocks or should we just stay put?  I am tempted to move some out into FSLR.  What is your take?

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4 minutes ago, Jetmoney said:

The question is: now what should we do about this good jump? Should we move some out into other stocks or should we just stay put?  I am tempted to move some out into FSLR.  What is your take?

I just sold FSLR, bad timing on my part to enter this name. I limited my loss to just 2.6% of my investment but given today's reaction and CSIQ's confirmed outlook of a slowdown in the industry I think it's wise to stay on the sidelines. As Robert said it's good to remain in the yieldcos at the moment, until further clarity arises OR the stocks trade sideways even with more bad news (a sign of a possible bottom).

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6 minutes ago, ravalos said:

I just sold FSLR, bad timing on my part to enter this name. I limited my loss to just 2.6% of my investment but given today's reaction and CSIQ's confirmed outlook of a slowdown in the industry I think it's wise to stay on the sidelines. As Robert said it's good to remain in the yieldcos at the moment, until further clarity arises OR the stocks trade sideways even with more bad news (a sign of a possible bottom).

Thank you.  So, I just reduced some exposure to CSIQ and build up more cash.

Your selling of FSLR tempers my want to load in more that this price.  I will wait for better entry if and when it comes.

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55 minutes ago, solarpete said:

Shoulda/woulda/coulda -- don't beat yourself up about it.  It was a 50/50 shot--it could have tanked just as easily.  You have good discipline sticking to your strategy.  Don't second-guess yourself because of one "missed" opportunity--there's a new opportunity SOMEWHERE every day.  Better to avoid catastrophic losses than miss out on the occasional big hit.

Good point. I agree.

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18 minutes ago, Jetmoney said:

The question is: now what should we do about this good jump? Should we move some out into other stocks or should we just stay put?  I am tempted to move some out into FSLR.  What is your take?

I'm sticking with current allocation and just traded the move by moving some CSIQ into FSLR.

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CS just came out with new estimates for Chinese solar companies through 2018 that takes into consideration 10-15% ASP reductions in 2H this year and another 10% next year.  Demand for 2017 estimated up 6% over 2016 but still oversupply situation.  The only Chinese solar expected to be profitable next year is JKS which he keeps at Outperform with reduced target price of $30. JKS estimates for '16, '17, & '18 are now $5.35/.51/$2.24.  

I am not sure how YGE survives next year.  He has estimates of ($6.94) for 2017 then ($4.44) for 2018.  He has US demand decreasing to 7.5 GW in 2017 from 10.2 GW.  That should prove to be too low if Hilary is elected.

I am staying with JKS & have added January deep money '18 call leaps in CSIQ.  Also really like SUNW (micro-cap primarily commercial solar system installer mainly in California) for a Hillary play.  Profitable & growing by over 100% y/y.  GLTA

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34 minutes ago, yomama said:

CS just came out with new estimates for Chinese solar companies through 2018 that takes into consideration 10-15% ASP reductions in 2H this year and another 10% next year.  Demand for 2017 estimated up 6% over 2016 but still oversupply situation.  The only Chinese solar expected to be profitable next year is JKS which he keeps at Outperform with reduced target price of $30. JKS estimates for '16, '17, & '18 are now $5.35/.51/$2.24.  

I am not sure how YGE survives next year.  He has estimates of ($6.94) for 2017 then ($4.44) for 2018.  He has US demand decreasing to 7.5 GW in 2017 from 10.2 GW.  That should prove to be too low if Hilary is elected.

I am staying with JKS & have added January deep money '18 call leaps in CSIQ.  Also really like SUNW (micro-cap primarily commercial solar system installer mainly in California) for a Hillary play.  Profitable & growing by over 100% y/y.  GLTA

At the same time, also today, S&P "upgrades" JKS to sell from strong sell with PT of $18...2017 EPS of $4.80 with compressing margins... What are they all smoking?

Meanwhile they maintain "hold" on CSIQ while reducing PT to $15 on 2017 EPS of $2.27.

PT of $18 on '17 EPS of $4.80 for JKS vs.  PT of $15 on '17 EPS of $2.27 for CSIQ?

We all should totally ignore all "analysts" and do our own DD (this is much harder now since in CEDR times all was known, now completely different environment with plants carried on the balance sheets, shipments from all over the world, instead of "nice" CEDR captured all third party shipments out of CN. This sector is becoming very difficult to gauge now.) 

 

Edited by pg6solar
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29 minutes ago, pg6solar said:

We all should totally ignore all "analysts" and do our own DD (this is much harder now since in CEDR times all was known, now completely different environment with plants carried on the balance sheets, shipments from all over the world, instead of "nice" CEDR captured all third party shipments out of CN. This sector is becoming very difficult to gauge now.) 

Exactly!!  But as you say, much harder to do now.

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Predicting what they can make and which company is still possible, what I find irrational to measure what market does with it, 

Let's assume CSIQ makes $2 this year, and $1.50 next, does this mean it will be worth $9 by January 2017 or less?

I am not even sure if it will not drop to $13 by tomorrow. and to $12 by Monday.

The problem is that analysts, industry experts , nobody has an idea what to make of it. Is FSLR going to be worth $30 by next year on earning $2? Why there is such a gap between CSIQ and FSLR anyway?

I hope I can nail CSIQ below $10 and it can go to $20 within a year. Timeline buys below Q2 2017, completion of the trade Q3 2018,

What I care for now is PEGI getting $2 higher per quarter, doing equity selling 5 to 10M shares between now and Q3 2018 and buying 200-300MW per quarter/year or some 1GW to current portfolio. I am planning to sell it at $35, get add on with about $2 in dividends / 50% turn and move to CSIQ. 

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I do not know how low they will take them, but its clear (hopefully to MM too) that 2017 is not 2012 Part II and both CSIQ and JKS should remain profitable. So I will start CSIQ at $12 adding every $1 drop until $8 (my bottom) with Qty increase with each $1 drop. Will do same for JKS ($15 to $11) and FSLR  ($35 to $25). 

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NYLD is moving well, PEGI is still shy but I expect her to move soon.

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I have no reasons but I flip my exposure % between NYLD and PEGI.

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk

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