Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
dydo

Trading Solars

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, BIPV Investor said:

Added TSL back at 7.12 this morning to see if this triple bottom holds. As suggested after CSIQs earnings, that gap is destined to be filled. Can easily see it back to pre earnings levels in the low 15, perhaps even by the end of next week. Hope not many people read Odyd's article and took positions based in it as that is a sure way to lose money. Has been since 2014.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Thanks BIPV for  looking after us. But I would say, that we are quite capable of looking for ourselves, even though you may not consider us mentally competent. Vow, BIPV, you continue to  surprise me by scaling new heights of impoliteness and arrogance. 

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

FSLR and JASO buys filled. FSLR was refill of a sell that filled a couple of days ago (I think I forgot to update here). Crazy day. Haven't had time to watch why, but for once it is in a period where my funds have been doing well so it's a good stocks top up opportunity.

Edited by explo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The calmness of the board in the face of today's destruction scares me.  It seems like many expected the market and solar stocks to go down (including me).  There is no panic yet.  That signals more drop to come.  I might start to load up my retirement account next week if it keeps up this fall. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Markets are far from Feb, Jan and/or Aug lows, while TSL is already below its lows. Don't you want to see a retest of (or at least close to) the lows before "loading"? If markets are to fall (its not a fall so far), solars should re-test the lows : i.e. CSIQ was as low as $15 only a day before its unexpected beat 4 weeks ago, so more than likely it will get there; then TSL will be in the $6s!!! (as will JASO), JKS should see at least below $19 it has not seen since Feb, while FSLR should be at least half way between now and its 1YR lows. IMHO, we have a way to go. So that no-one complains about "no fingers" left referring to falling knifes, patience is most prudent in this environment.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, Jetmoney said:

The calmness of the board in the face of today's destruction scares me.

It is a biggish down move based on no news.  I am sure we will learn in a day or two why. 

Then we will probably make another big down move--at which point we can all speculate on if at that point it is time to bounce or bail.

I have been quiet of late because (since SUNE) I have decided to stop buying because I think a stock is undervalued (70% sure stock will go up).  That has killed me time after time.   Instead I am trying to wait for news or conditions (extreme sell-offs) where I'm sure (90%+) the stock is undervalued.  Usually about the time in a sell-off when BIPV writes off the whole sector as "dead money" is when I plan to start buying...this has been an excellent indicator of a near term bottom over the past two years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bought some TSL and more CSIQ today. May bail on TSL if it break $7. For CSIQ, I hope it won't visit the low before Q1 release given the good reaction to Q1 release.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, pg6solar said:

IMHO, we have a way to go. So that no-one complains about "no fingers" left referring to falling knifes, patience is most prudent in this environment.

In addition, "explo travel indicators" line up perfectly:

first there's GB referendum on 23rd (that's when the first trip takes place),

secondly, the vacation of last week of July is:

       a. two weeks after a possible Fed raise in md-July,

       b. and only one week after Republican convention when it becomes official and the whole world (read MM) realizes that "it" is not impossible (for ridiculous to actually to take place, no matter how unlikely), so they might just quickly "flash crush" the whole thing as a warning (similar to last August's).  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I see the lack of interest in solar stock on this board as one of the indicators for a short term bottom.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Have taken a couple months off from solar sector to invest in the "dark side"....oil and gas. Have had some great runs with CHK, DVN and SWN.

Will return to the solar sector again at some point after oil and gas has has finished its rebound.

Best of luck to all solar longs.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Koolinv said:

I see the lack of interest in solar stock on this board as one of the indicators for a short term bottom.

I sincerely hope you're right (about a short-term bottom), but I wouldn't bet on it.  The problem isn't a lack of interest on this board--it's that any fact-based discussion seems to be immaterial right now.  All of our CN4 reported earnings beats, some by quite a margin.  All reiterated guidance.  All have sold off, and are continuing to sell off.  Some now have trailing PEs below 5, not to mention forward-looking ones!  When earnings no longer matter, factual discussion of business conditions and strategy becomes pointless.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, there seems to be no interest in solar stocks at this time and the SP continues to drift lower.

I did not know that Zack gave a strong SELL rating on JASO a week ago:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/strong-sell-stocks-june-7th-133401449.html

Strong SELL rating for SUNE is understandable, but for a company that make good profits, good BS and growing seems a bit harsh.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Jetmoney said:

JASO and CSIQ are low enough for me now.  Just got some of each.

Warning: every time I posted a trade, the SP always seem to go the opposite.  Good luck.

Lol. Good luck jet. I hope for a bounce from this level for the solar stock as I feel a little over extended with my allocation on solar. I would definitely have an exit strategy and start to take losses if they break key supports. I still regret not taking loss when SOL dropped below $8 in May '11. Won't let that happen again. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I feel that solar stocks are oversold while the general market is not.  That is the only thing that keeps me from going all in.  If I can borrow a quote from Pops "these stocks are like coiled springs" and when the "rip your head off reversal" comes, we can look back and wish we had bought them at these levels.  People tend to be pessimistic at bottom and optimistic when stocks at their high.  I feel like a buzzard attracting to and feast on dead carcasses or about to go down.  Hopefully, these are the survivors and will rise like phoenixes later.  Good luck.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, Jetmoney said:

JASO and CSIQ are low enough for me now.  Just got some of each.

Warning: every time I posted a trade, the SP always seem to go the opposite.  Good luck.

Yes, the names keep inching closer to new buy levels. Portfolio funds have gone opposite direction and I got the tax reduction on last year interest expense, so funds to buy stocks have increased. Let's hope this is a good time to buy. Of the names I hold I think all stand strong to handle industry cycles now. SEDG is the one I'm uncertain about as it is on top of the world margin and growth wise, but I'm not sure on how solid ground (because I have not analyzed it just included it fir diversification) in a shakeout.

Best is to expect that either a 50% drop or 100% rise can happen from here. Again JASO would likely be the one moving the least in each direction.

Edited by explo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, lepv123 said:

Why is Terp getting hit so hard and not GLBL? 

Both are undervalue. someone just bought 1 Million share of GLBL this morning.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, lepv123 said:

Why is Terp getting hit so hard and not GLBL? 

Because GLBL had already been hit hard.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, explo said:

Because GLBL had already been hit hard.

Thanks guys! Explo, kknd, are you guys planning to buy Terp at all? At what price. I'm in at $7.60. I will write a call at $8 to average down. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, lepv123 said:

Thanks guys! Explo, kknd, are you guys planning to buy Terp at all? At what price. I'm in at $7.60. I will write a call at $8 to average down. 

I haven't looked back since I exited. I think it will be a drawn out uncertainty period. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, bodhi said:

does anybody still want to bet whether or not CSIQ breaks above $26 this year?  my bet is still no...

Don't know whether it break $26 this year.  It will be there some day if they emerge as one of the survivors from this round of so called "overcapacity", which I believe they will as tier ones are still providing decent forecast for the year.  I will be very happy if it makes to $20 this year. Who knows the price won't get a bump with some hints from CSIQ on what they would to with plants in Japan and US.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Jetmoney said:

SPWR is at 3 year low with RSI below 30.  Any interest?  It might be a good short term trade.

I'd be more tempted to buy CSIQ for a 5% bounce than SPWR. The market cap of SPWR continues to make no sense so I think there is a lot more fat that can come off it before I'd want to see it in my portfolio.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, BIPV Investor said:

I'd be more tempted to buy CSIQ for a 5% bounce than SPWR. The market cap of SPWR continues to make no sense so I think there is a lot more fat that can come off it before I'd want to see it in my portfolio.

Wow. It just shot up 40 cents in 20 minutes.  Could it be a rip your head reversal day today?  Yesterday was a disappointment (wrong kind of reversal).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • Donate

    Please donate to support this community. We appreciate all donations!

    Donate Sidebar by DevFuse
  • Upcoming Events

    No upcoming events found
  • Forum Statistics

    • Total Topics
      32
    • Total Posts
      92,717
  • Who's Online (See full list)

    There are no registered users currently online



×
×
  • Create New...