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Trading Solars

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These are non bidding "offers", meaning they can be lowered even more or totally withdrawn. So no floor and no "upside" (there are some floating around here from time to time) guarantee either.

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22 hours ago, explo said:

Yes. Equal allocation. TSL hit fill earlier than JASO and I hope I can hit next fill level on it.

Was your TSL order filled today?  Are you getting more JASO/TSL?

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I added TSL today and lowered my exposure on both Csiq and jks. If TSL is going back to close to $7 again, I will add more. For Jaso, I will consider buy in $6.7 range. In that case, I am afraid cisq and jks would be a lot lower than the current price.

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well i sold my FSLR at 50.02 yesterday... doesn't appear the markets have any interest in rationale right now regarding CN's.  If/when FSLR drops to the mid 40's again, i'll be back.  That or JKS, doesn't appear anything is going to stem another pullback

The economy is stalled... the S&P 500 has stalled AGAIN... i think this summer could see another brutal pullback.  My goal was always to be out before the June Fed meeting, but yesterday seemed like as good a time as any that will be provided in the next couple of weeks.  Disappointed in my returns thus far this year, but i'm going to continue to play the patience game.  Back in when RSI's are down in the 20's again

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On 3 juni 2016 at 4:15 PM, pg6solar said:

Did Explo take an unscheduled trip?

An unscheduled trip to the bar area to meet a friend visiting in town. Just saw my account now. It didn't help my headache.

I had a TSL buy order that filled, but likely missed other good opportunities.

 

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On 3 juni 2016 at 6:38 PM, Jetmoney said:

Was your TSL order filled today?  Are you getting more JASO/TSL?

Yes. I need to look at sheets later to see where JASO is ripe for a new fill.

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Good analysis...  JKS still has the best ability to catch fire this year if sentiment changes towards the sector.

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1 hour ago, odyd said:

Excellent.

Impossible to better expose the "undifferentiated selling" issue.

 

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4 hours ago, yomama said:

Good analysis...  JKS still has the best ability to catch fire this year if sentiment changes towards the sector.

everyone will be sitting on their hands until Q2 results awaiting guidance for the Q3. I hope that few companies can put big orders out there, most likely July will have action from Brazil, CSIQ and Enel for JKS. Something is happening in Argentina as well. Fear has taken the grip and only a dose of good news can change it.

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both TSL and JASO getting trashed, down 6% each TSL now down 8%

Bought TSL at 7.28. Big down moves like this are very uncharacteristic for this stock. Still have plenty of cash as this is just the start of the sector wide down movement that was interrupted by CSIQ's earnings.

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Exiting that trade at 7.70. Nothing to write home about, but an easy 42 cents. Much better than jumping onto JKS after earnings when it's RSI was in the 60s. Now back to waiting for more unusually low prices prior to taking another position.

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On 6/6/2016 at 5:48 AM, odyd said:

Odyd,  thank you for writing this great article.  I have a question to clear my understanding. 

According to the article, you wrote "The company is coming on the second anniversary of the agreement, and the private ownership could be redeemed at the price tag of some $255M for non-controlling interests and the accretion. The move on one hand would reduce the cash needed to pay the rest of the convertibles this year, but on the other, add around $28M per year to EPS."

Does this mean that for the past two years, JKS has been paying around $28M per year and if/when the private ownership redeem, it would make extra $28M per year (JKS does not have to pay this anymore)?  If this is the case, this is like an weight on JKS shoulder and when removed, there is upside in JKS earnings.  I am sure JKS can get a loan with better interest payment in case this $255M is redeemed.

It seems that private ownership got a good deal from JKS and you correctly pointed out that they may not want to redeem.  Do you have any guess as to when JKS will IPO its power segment and what is the sentiment toward its IPO at this time?  Thanks.

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3 hours ago, lepv123 said:

Is there anybody here that invests in TERP? If so, when would be a good time to enter? Thanks. 

I have some, bought at a higher level, and I'm not selling it.  But I'm not adding right now, either.  There's simply too much uncertainty due to the SUNE situation.  If TERP is indeed affected, and the dividend is suspended or cut significantly, the stock could easily drop into the 6's or even 5's.  And the longer SUNE waits to finally reveal its financials, the more I suspect they will have bad news for its yieldcos.  It's a 50-50 bet at best in the short to mid-term, and possibly worse.  Best to wait until there is more information available.  Yes, you might miss a 10-20% up move--but you'll also avoid a possible 50% crash.

All just IMO, of course.

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12 minutes ago, solarpete said:

I have some, bought at a higher level, and I'm not selling it.  But I'm not adding right now, either.  There's simply too much uncertainty due to the SUNE situation.  If TERP is indeed affected, and the dividend is suspended or cut significantly, the stock could easily drop into the 6's or even 5's.  And the longer SUNE waits to finally reveal its financials, the more I suspect they will have bad news for its yieldcos.  It's a 50-50 bet at best in the short to mid-term, and possibly worse.  Best to wait until there is more information available.  Yes, you might miss a 10-20% up move--but you'll also avoid a possible 50% crash.

All just IMO, of course.

Thank you Pete! Is there a time line we're waiting on for the news? 

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@Jetmoney Yes, they deduct roughly $7M per quarter for this purpose. Unfortunately, only partners can redeem. I doubt they will and IPO will progress or JKS will continue to set aside 13% of that sum every year. There is a period of time IPO must happen but I am not sure what that is and if they need to act.

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According to court documents JA Solar has a $11M claim against SUNE in Singapore for purchase made in March 2015, based on the contract SUNE bought over 18MW of modules at 0.52 per watt. The contract is dated Jan 23, 2015, delivery to be made by March 2015.

There is also another $1M there for order purchases

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18 hours ago, lepv123 said:

Thank you Pete! Is there a time line we're waiting on for the news? 

Looks like the end of August:

http://www.fool.com/investing/2016/06/08/why-the-clock-is-ticking-on-terraform-power-and-te.aspx?source=yahoo-2&utm_campaign=article&utm_medium=feed&utm_source=yahoo-2

That article has a good high-level explanation of the problem for both SUNE yieldcos.

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15 hours ago, odyd said:

@Jetmoney Yes, they deduct roughly $7M per quarter for this purpose. Unfortunately, only partners can redeem. I doubt they will and IPO will progress or JKS will continue to set aside 13% of that sum every year. There is a period of time IPO must happen but I am not sure what that is and if they need to act.

Thank you Odyd.  What is going on with JKS today?  I see no news.

Summer doldrums is here.  Stocks just drift with the wind with no direction.  General market may drift down this summer.  Good luck to all.

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JKS is being crushed without any news..

It seems Pop`s approach to go cash until the waters calm down was wise..

anyway, don't want to risk losing shares in a sudden rise (if any), and I know sonner or later JKS will soar..

so.. I will hold.

 

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11 hours ago, Dan said:

JKS is being crushed without any news..

It seems Pop`s approach to go cash until the waters calm down was wise..

anyway, don't want to risk losing shares in a sudden rise (if any), and I know sonner or later JKS will soar..

so.. I will hold.

 

So far it looks wise but things can always change in a heartbeat.  I was fortunate I moved a big chunk of that JKS to MTCH Monday in mid 13's.  Honestly I hope I'm wrong with sector as I know many of you are heavily invested.  

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22 hours ago, solarpete said:

Looks like the end of August:

http://www.fool.com/investing/2016/06/08/why-the-clock-is-ticking-on-terraform-power-and-te.aspx?source=yahoo-2&utm_campaign=article&utm_medium=feed&utm_source=yahoo-2

That article has a good high-level explanation of the problem for both SUNE yieldcos.

Thank you Pete. I sold some July 15th PUTS at strike $8. 

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Added TSL back at 7.12 this morning to see if this triple bottom holds. As suggested after CSIQs earnings, that gap is destined to be filled. Can easily see it back to pre earnings levels in the low 15, perhaps even by the end of next week. Hope not many people read Odyd's article and took positions based in it as that is a sure way to lose money. Has been since 2014.

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28 minutes ago, BIPV Investor said:

Added TSL back at 7.12 this morning to see if this triple bottom holds. As suggested after CSIQs earnings, that gap is destined to be filled. Can easily see it back to pre earnings levels in the low 15, perhaps even by the end of next week. Hope not many people read Odyd's article and took positions based in it as that is a sure way to lose money. Has been since 2014.

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Please don't say that.  I have been enjoying reading his articles.  The decision to buy or sell is our own.  Odyd cannot control the stock prices.  Many times Odyd saved our butts and I don't see you say your appreciation.  Odyd, please don't stop publishing your articles because of this.  Many of us appreciate your sharing of your thoughts. 

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31 minutes ago, BIPV Investor said:

Hope not many people read Odyd's article and took positions based in it as that is a sure way to lose money. Has been since 2014.

Is that degree of dickishness really called for?

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