Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
dydo

Trading Solars

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, Jetmoney said:

Yes, it would be great if it can close green today signal strong reversal.  Good job switching to JKS although FSLR is starting to show some sign of life. 

Yeah FSLR was holding pretty steady past couple days while JKS got pummeled so I figured it was time to switch.  After JKS weakness I just see a bigger short term move up for JKS.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Jetmoney said:

How did I miss Odyd's estimates?  Was this posted recently?  I cannot seem to find it.  Can you please post a link to his estimates?  Thank you much.

Link would not post. Look at page 1334, toward the bottom, there's Odyd'd post on Friday at about 8:30AM. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, pg6solar said:

Link would not post. Look at page 1334, toward the bottom, there's Odyd'd post on Friday at about 8:30AM. 

Got it!  Thank you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, pg6solar said:

Link would not post. Look at page 1334, toward the bottom, there's Odyd'd post on Friday at about 8:30AM. 

Just reviewed the numbers and its balance sheet.  JASO looks cheap at this price.  So, i just got some JASO.  It may not be as sexy or move as fast as JKS or CSIQ, but it presents a bargain here.  Even if it gets bought out, at $9.6, it is a solid 20% gain from this level.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There seems to be $1~2 gap between Jaso and TSL most of time in the past two years. I bought TSL instead of Jaso. Plus, TSL has more institution buyers, make it more difficult for the management to  pull off shady deals in privatization, I hope. I would be happy for round trips between $8 and $9 before clear trend is established in solar. Just feel safer this way. That said, I do have larger holding in JKS than TSL and Csiq now, hoping for long term gain.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree and also bought TSL.  Currently, I have more money in TSL than JASO.  Looking at JASO balance sheet, one would salivate at how cheap the shares are.  They have $19.48 book and $7.61 cash per share.  It has almost as much cash as its share price.  Also, it made almost $2 ($1.96) per share last year and project (per Odyd's estimate) to make $1.88 per share this year giving it a PE of around 4.  That is very cheap.  Like I said, the CEO offer could have caused a cap to the share price.  But if JASO is taken private, you would get 20% gain from this level.  Well, I know TSL offer is higher and if taken private offers a better gain. 

I just want to spread the risk among CN4.  At this time, I like both CSIQ and JKS a bit more than TSL and JASO (with TSL a bit more than JASO).  JASO might not go up as fast as JKS and CSIQ but also will not drop as much.  Good luck with all PV solars.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I went ahead and reduced  my holdings (still have enough in case it goes up instead) ,  better safe than sorry,  even if the fundamentals dont warrant the recent sell off (even given the latest "scary" news), its always the market reaction that counts, and it tends to sell first and ask questions later.  I will plan on leverage my price point down during this time of uncertainty

the other issue is OPEC did not come up with a plan to limit oil, so oil prices may go down from here, and we have seen solar go down when oil goes down

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1 juni 2016 at 5:02 PM, Jetmoney said:

Explo, JASO and TSL are about the same price.  Why do you like JASO better than TSL?  I can't really see your % holding.  Do you have about equal allocation between JASO and TSL?

Yes. Equal allocation. TSL hit fill earlier than JASO and I hope I can hit next fill level on it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting that CSIQ is selling the most while having little interest in China.

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, bodhi said:

pop, did you sell all your JKS?

Yes, first 30 minutes of trading this morning.  I think one more shakeout of industry is needed and would be very healthy.  Personally I just question whether strong solars can rally in midst of overcapacity situation.  My heart says stick with solar because I love the industry but my mind says pull off to side and wait it out.  but maybe I'm the ultimate contrarian indicator... lol.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

According to Jinko, their ASP for Q1 in China was $0.50, not sure if this includes VAT or not, but I am assuming it does. The in-house cost is $0.37, that is 26% GM. The blend is $0.41 and tariff included is $0.44, their selling average was $0.55. At the average of $0.52, as this is the average I assign they are able to sell 5.7GW of modules as $2.9B. Add $100M in electricity revenue and you have $3B. It is hard to calculate the GM but using cost at $0.39 per watt, they are looking at 25% GM. I will run with an average of 20%. Based on the number they will do over $5 or more per share.

The question is does IHS describes Jinko in their document?

At this price, photovoltaic (PV) modules suppliers will be selling at a net loss in China. Gross margins of module suppliers will drop from approximately 20 percent in the first half of 2016 to low-to-mid single digits in the second half of this year. Many of these suppliers are under extreme financial pressure with precarious balance sheets. As a result, a further shakeout and consolidation in the industry is likely for suppliers that are unable to operate over the next two to three quarters at such limited margins.

Is Jinko unable to operate over three-quarters? The broad strokes of this write-up certainly describe general concerns. Those concerns are real Trina certainly think they are, Jinko does not, Canadian is ignoring China. Until yesterday, I assumed 14GW would be unloaded in H1. H2 will follow with 5GW. At this point, China will have around 62GW of solar, and three years to hit 100GW before 2020. So there is a chance of China market drop to 13GW per year. The US is seen to go from 16GW in 2016, not sure to 10GW in 2017, then 12GW and 14GW, by 2020 the US is seen to install 20GW per year.

Based on this 2017 if nothing changed could be 13GW shy of 2016. Emerging markets are booming. Middle East is seen to pick up a large chunk of GW. The same IHS sees overall global growth in 2017.  The important question is if 6 top companies are going to lose their business and probably more critical to us if the market thinks they are whether it happens or not.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am sorry, apparently China 2020 target is 143GW. So what happens after 2016 may not be a significant drop. The problem is localized and affects all Chinese 2 and 3 tiers. CN4 expanded to take business away from the OEM guys. This alone should have been expected as that capacity has no home. Trina is one which is planning to ride it and Canadian figures expect them to buy OEM modules as they are late.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There is no doubt in my mind that strong players will ride out any overcapacity phase in sector and will most likely come out stronger in gaining from the weak ones that fail.  My problem is I think we are asking for a lot to see even strong solars rally before and during a shakeout.  I feel like I'm turning into BIPV.  I'm really going to keep an eye on weekly spot prices.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
both TSL and JASO getting trashed, down 6% each

TSL now down 8%

Bought TSL at 7.28. Big down moves like this are very uncharacteristic for this stock. Still have plenty of cash as this is just the start of the sector wide down movement that was interrupted by CSIQ's earnings.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Ihs mission accomplishedSent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk

Yeah I hate it when facts do their job.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

If you think those are facts why you are buying the biggest loser in the onset?

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

JKS has no impacts, buy winners on questionable facts as if the problem is less they will perform better. TSL is impacted they said themselves.

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If TSL is going to single digit GM, it will start losing money on net. Scary,

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't understand this.  TSL and JASO got pummeled today because they are in China? and therefore got impacted the most?  What about JKS?  It is in China also (but i guess they are expanding globally)?  I thought with the buyout offers, both of these shares would have a floor under them, at least.  If the offers are accepted, TSL would get more than 50% gain and JASO more than 30% gain.  Traders seem to ignore the offers.  These two are still making money even under dire conditions, unlike those who have no profit and sporting huge price tags (in another sector of course).  JASO has great BS.  I don't know the reasons for those who sold JASO today at this level.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • Donate

    Please donate to support this community. We appreciate all donations!

    Donate Sidebar by DevFuse
  • Upcoming Events

    No upcoming events found
  • Forum Statistics

    • Total Topics
      32
    • Total Posts
      92,717
  • Who's Online (See full list)

    There are no registered users currently online



×
×
  • Create New...