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Now it is certain it will go to 52 week low. Thank SunEdison and all the hedge funds. Now everyone will pay for it as they need to recover their losses.

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I dont think anything is certain, you could make a technical argument that FSLR will bounce soon if you draw a line based on the last 3 lows for the last 3 years.  however it could easily get to 45 or 40 before then.  if I was certain (which im not) I would have sold all my FSLR

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It also certainly looks now like the market is pricing another glut in the industry. I would start considering this as we move lower.. another glut could deal the ultimate death blow to squeeze out the weak players once and for all.. if you think about it we haven't had any consolidation at all (or at least I can't think of any meaningful one from the top of my head). 

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It also certainly looks now like the market is pricing another glut in the industry. I would start considering this as we move lower.. another glut could deal the ultimate death blow to squeeze out the weak players once and for all.. if you think about it we haven't had any consolidation at all (or at least I can't think of any meaningful one from the top of my head). 

FSLR cannot grow as it does not have production lines. Csiq the most accurate in measuring glut, is adding 700mw more of capacity since Q4 numbers. TSL and JASO lied to drop their share prices, so they can be taken off the market cheap. Glut is as real of the problem as SUNE equity holders coming out from bk with shares.

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It also certainly looks now like the market is pricing another glut in the industry. I would start considering this as we move lower.. another glut could deal the ultimate death blow to squeeze out the weak players once and for all.. if you think about it we haven't had any consolidation at all (or at least I can't think of any meaningful one from the top of my head). 

FSLR cannot grow as it does not have production lines. Csiq the most accurate in measuring glut, is adding 700mw more of capacity since Q4 numbers. TSL and JASO lied to drop their share prices, so they can be taken off the market cheap. Glut is as real of the problem as SUNE equity holders coming out from bk with shares.

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There will be a glut next year. CSIQ is going to bring online tariff free capacity right as us demand gets cut in half. Not really clear what they have been thinking in waiting so long.

And one needs to remember that there are absolutely no investors in this sector and hoping for a PE of ten on CSIQ is equivalent to your fire mention SUNE equity holders hoping they'll get a slice of the pie during bankruptcy.

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6 hours ago, BIPV Investor said:

There will be a glut next year. CSIQ is going to bring online tariff free capacity right as us demand gets cut in half. Not really clear what they have been thinking in waiting so long.

And one needs to remember that there are absolutely no investors in this sector and hoping for a PE of ten on CSIQ is equivalent to your fire mention SUNE equity holders hoping they'll get a slice of the pie during bankruptcy.

I have spent countless hours presenting the case for the solar in general and also in a granular, mostly about Canadian Solar in last 4 to 5 years. I need to look back only to the end of 2014. It was about Japan. Later it became a matter of solar plants in Canada,  limited revenue, even worse margins, yet 2015 was the best revenue year ever. Then it went on about gross margins, current year and once again solar plants.  Yes, I am frustrated about the performance of the stocks, but certainly I see nothing fundamentally wrong with the three names, FSLR, CSIQ and JKS and potentially TSL and JASO if they did not block themselves off with their private offers, therefore moving off my interest pool. SunEdison cost TERP a lot of value, and it cost me not because TERP is junk, but because SUNE has run it as junk. SUNE has an enormous impact on many people. Individuals who cannot easily tell the differences between companies. All you have to do read today's oilprice article hooked to SCTY. 

Canadian Solar is one of the most capable organizations out there. When Explo, who I respect at the highest level, suggested that cell shortage is going to impact CSIQ I argued opposite. Q1 CSIQ surprised me with 15.6% GM and even more with 15 to 17% prediction for Q2. Way ahead of the second quarter where I was hoping for an average of 15%. All, while buying well over 50% of cells from the market. You say I am dilutional like the people who think they can hold to SUNEQ shares seeing value in them. After all, I frequently talk to myself, including calling for 10 PE. When you buy stocks and lose it shows in your posts.  The point is that I talk all the time, not only when walls are closing in. I talk predictions when others are silent. My predictions come true, most of the time, not all the time and probably never timely on prices. I strongly doubt there is a glut. There is a fear of instability, and there is a fear that ITC has relaxed timelines removing demand in the US. If you are watching, you should see that FSLR is gearing up for the global move. The no demand in the US is already being addressed by global demand. Read what this real business review talks about Cat. I know at least two public companies only selling CAT equipment. 

https://microgridknowledge.com/hybrid-microgrid/

Stuff like that is very exciting, but most people who lost money on SunEdison do not get details like this. For that purpose read comments in SA and some of the letters in dockets of the SUNE bankruptcy. Anyway, adding 700MW surprised even Roth analyst. The reality is that solar business and the so-called demand is understood on the conceptual level from 4 or more years ago, but those companies have graduated from it. I am going to repeat what I say all the time, the markets are not good advisors, but they decide the price. I get frustrated with their decision but thank goodness I do not take ever their advice. Even now when I am upset about FSLR I know that within 6 months to 9 months it will cross $75 mark. To finalize the comment on ASP, microeconomics etc. Quote from Potter:

"I'm sorry, but we don't really talk about like for last couple of week trends when we do calls, and we don't focus on the China market as our main market for us. We're in a lot of strong markets across the globe and demand is expected to grow and be strong this year based on outside forecasters say. So, prices always go down, usually interact with ASPs with our cost, we're expecting our cost to go down or competitors are expecting cost to go down, so naturally in the solar industry ASP tend to follow. So lowering ASP is normal than what we expect."

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6 hours ago, BIPV Investor said:

There will be a glut next year.

Based on what data BIPV? 

      What do you see as demand this year and what next (i.e. cut in half of what & why)? vs what change in supply?

Don't tell me b/c solar stocks went down...that is circular reasoning.  Give me some data not finger wagging.

Also I don't see how you can say glut at the same time that silicon price is jumping--that is action opposite of glut

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The addition of the module capacity by Canadian Solar is more of a strategy than expansion. However, the strategy is a preparation for the demand. FSLR does not have the capacity. Working at 100% utilization and having 1.1GW backlog today. Canadian is not planning to buy third-party modules, as they lose margin. They have bought as many as 500MW of those in 2015 alone. Astoria project in Texas, 175MW is being built for Recurrent by First Solar, using their modules. 

Daniel, you are asking an excellent question. I have been against using PVInsights in any shape and form as an indicator of industry conditions. They still look at the companies producing modules, like there is no difference between Sunrise Solar and Canadian Solar. They are the same who say modules drop every day. For many those statements dictate view when they think of CSIQ margins. Overcapacity in China is not applicable to companies like Canadian Solar, but Bloomberg printed today that Yingli Solar is suffering from an oversupply of the product on the market and excessive borrowing, confusing the fact that it is an expensive run company which borrowed more than it could pay back. Yingli was the biggest shipper of modules at some years past, now replaced by Trina. All of this require a lot deeper understanding than a simple dotted line. Unfortunately, markets use dotted lines and Bloomberg is looked at as an expert storyteller.

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11 minutes ago, odyd said:

Yingli Solar is suffering from an oversupply of the product on the market

So now the market can't distinguish between a loss making company in default, and the profitable/expanding ones?

*prepares to bang head against table*

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2 minutes ago, disdaniel said:

So now the market can't distinguish between a loss making company in default, and the profitable/expanding ones?

*prepares to bang head against table*

Against the wall, perhaps

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-09/riding-the-solarcoaster-as-shares-plunge-even-more-than-coal

Solar investors remain rattled, with legitimate questions about leverage and financing. The markets are looking for proof that companies can make and install panels profitably. “Investors lost a lot of money on SunEdison -- and quickly,” said Carl Weatherley-White, former president of developer Lightbeam Electric Co. “They’re nervous. We’ll need to see a steady quarter or two of success by the public companies. Against that expectation, the drumbeat of bad news continues. Abengoa SA, a builder of solar-thermal power plants, is seeking investor support for a 9.4 billion-euro ($10.7 billion) debt restructuring plan to avoid becoming Spain’s largest corporate failure. And last week, hedge fund manager Jim Chanos said SolarCity, which is down more than 50 percent this year, will face more “financial trouble” in 2016, in part because the largest U.S. rooftop solar provider loses money on every installation. His view was backed up Monday when SolarCity posted a wider first-quarter loss than analysts were expecting. While there are a variety of reasons Wall Street has soured on solar, the conversation always comes around to SunEdison, the industry’s biggest-ever failure, which cited $16.1 billion in liabilities when it sought protection from creditors April 21"

In the meantime, Oppenheimer sees CSIQ make $4 per share in 2017. 

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-12/once-a-billionaire-miao-is-china-s-latest-humbled-solar-king?cmpid=yhoo.headline

this news could be the reason Tsl has been down big the last few days.  Down in sympathy.  Yge used to be the biggest pv panel producer.  Now Tsl holds that curse title.  Both suntech and Yge held that title and both collapsed.

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There is a piece of news that equity outflows reached $44 billions the past 5 weeks, the most since August 2011.  That is a lot of money on the sideline to cushion the blow if and when the market crashes as you keep predicting.  Do you still think investors will continue to exit the market?  The market might be overbought but solar stocks are oversold.  Have you bought Tsl at $9?

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14 minutes ago, Jetmoney said:

this news could be the reason Tsl has been down big the last few days.  Down in sympathy.  Yge used to be the biggest pv panel producer.  Now Tsl holds that curse title.  Both suntech and Yge held that title and both collapsed.

Maybe that's the reason for TSL's share price drop. Or someone has inside information on some bad news. Who knows. LDK and YGE has been supper aggressive with high debt and stretch of unprofitable quarters. STP were brought down by a bad decision triggered default. TSL's track record is far more consistent. At 45% discount of buyout price. I started half position. Will do another half near $7 or after quarterly report. A little surprised for the lack of interest on this board.

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2 minutes ago, Jetmoney said:

There is a piece of news that equity outflows reached $44 billions the past 5 weeks, the most since August 2011.  That is a lot of money on the sideline to cushion the blow if and when the market crashes as you keep predicting.  Do you still think investors will continue to exit the market?  The market might be overbought but solar stocks are oversold.  Have you bought Tsl at $9?

No, not touching anything at moment except shorting SPY.

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4 minutes ago, Koolinv said:

Maybe that's the reason for TSL's share price drop. Or someone has inside information on some bad news. Who knows. LDK and YGE has been supper aggressive with high debt and stretch of unprofitable quarters. STP were brought down by a bad decision triggered default. TSL's track record is far more consistent. At 45% discount of buyout price. I started half position. Will do another half near $7 or after quarterly report. A little surprised for the lack of interest on this board.

Yes, I hear you.  People just throw baby out with bath water.  It does not help with sun edition bankruptcy and solar city losing lots of money.  With Yge on the verge of defaulting loans, investors will sell first even with good companies like Tsl, Csiq and Fslr (happened to be the ones I hold).  It  might not good enough to know and pick good stocks but also need to know traders mentality to make money.

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14 minutes ago, kknd1234 said:

No, not touching anything at moment except shorting SPY.

I also don't feel too strongly about general market, but don't feel safe to short market either.  So, I keep cash on the sideline, especially retirement funds, ready to pounce if and when market falls.

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Fwiw, the Volatility of TSL share price might be related to the uncertainty of buy out due to potential hurdles from the Chinese government. There are rumblings from Bloomberg and forbs on QIHU about this. Not sure how this play out for TSL is buyout is banned.

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I am glad you wrote something.  I thought my subscription is expired because I see nobody posted anything since last Friday.

Anyway, the solar stocks are still under a lot of pressure (not just TSL and JASO).  Oil and market are up big and solar stocks are going nowhere.  We just have to wait for better days.  Good luck

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I was wondering the same thing (about how quiet it's been on this board this morning)!

Solars had a nice spike earlier this morning, but aside from CSIQ, they've given much of it back.  Disappointing.  And volume continues to be anemic, so this is not new money coming in--it's just the usual algo-driven back and forth.

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Oh I am here, but just watching others sharing (not a lot of that)

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Have been away on a stag weekend abroad. I think the stocks dropped as soon as I headed for the flight out and recovered today when I got back. Starting to recover a bit myself now.

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2 hours ago, explo said:

Have been away on a stag weekend abroad. I think the stocks dropped as soon as I headed for the flight out and recovered today when I got back. Starting to recover a bit myself now.

lol...

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Not much to say about trading right now in my opinion... oil up, market up, solars... kinda up.  Hoping FSLR can claw back to the 55-60 range sometime soon, then i'm out before the summer doldrums hit the markets.

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