Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
dydo

Trading Solars

Recommended Posts

On 2/12/2016 at 11:22 AM, BIPV Investor said:

Yes and if it does it should do a solid 25% pop. If it doesn't, SUNE could well do a 40-50% pop. Not sure how TERP will respond if it is ruled in SUNE's favor. Feel like it is already priced into TERP, but market is crazy out there.

Starting to wonder if I should buy some VSLR--I don't think it is worth what SUNE is paying, but I'll be pissed if somehow that is the only stock that rises following the Tepper/SUNE court date.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
57 minutes ago, lepv123 said:

Will we solars be held back by SUNE's earnings this Wednesday?

I don't believe they are releasing earnings on Wednesday as I don't see it on Sunedision's website/news releases. It is unlikely that they will release earnings this month as Tuesday is the preliminary ruling on the TERP injunction and end of the month Vivint votes on the merger. I expect them to announce earnings once these events have been clarified as they don't have anything people are looking to hear prior to their resolution.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, BIPV Investor said:

I don't believe they are releasing earnings on Wednesday as I don't see it on Sunedision's website/news releases. It is unlikely that they will release earnings this month as Tuesday is the preliminary ruling on the TERP injunction and end of the month Vivint votes on the merger. I expect them to announce earnings once these events have been clarified as they don't have anything people are looking to hear prior to their resolution.

Oh, thanks BIPV. I misread.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, slowtrader said:

TERP, SUNE (and GLBL) - waiting for the storm? Till now, they don't seem to like to move with the market..

I don't think they'll be quite all day, and if they are, I expect a violent move at open tomorrow. My bet is that TERP isn't blocked from buying Vivint's assets. Have money in both TERP and GLBL but with TERP only being a minor position as a hedge. I do not think TERP being blocked via a court order would be  a positive for solar as a whole as it sets a dangerous precedent.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, BIPV Investor said:

I don't think they'll be quite all day, and if they are, I expect a violent move at open tomorrow. My bet is that TERP isn't blocked from buying Vivint's assets. Have money in both TERP and GLBL but with TERP only being a minor position as a hedge. I do not think TERP being blocked via a court order would be  a positive for solar as a whole as it sets a dangerous precedent.

I have use SUNE as hedge for a much larger TERP-position, as I think, it could go up much faster than TERP, and downside is limited.. I also think, if the ruling is in favor of TERP, SUNE will tank less, than TERP will move up, and recover soon if not going BK.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

TERP preliminary inquiry today at the Court of Chancery in Delaware slated for 2 pm EST. 

Chancellor Bouchard to hear the case.

I was expecting an arrangement/conciliation prior to the hearing...guess I was wrong about that.

Unclear about outcome but favor TERP.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Significant Developments in Corporate Governance and M&A Law in 2015

Please see the link for developments in Delaware law in 2015.

Of particular interest to SUNE, TERP, GLBL owners will be section B. "Director Independence and Conflicts of Interest".

http://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=969c7e1f-12dd-416f-a69a-01096729255e

Of pointedly particular interest is the case of an MLP and it's parent company with a portion of the ruling stating:

"the Committee members failed to form a subjective belief that the transaction was in the best interests of El Paso MLP.  The General Partner therefore breached the LP Agreement by causing El Paso MLP to engage in the transaction."

This read makes me tend to think that the ruling will be in favor of TERP/Tepper/Appaloosa.

Best to all

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
50 minutes ago, Jetmoney said:

Nobody touching GLBL and TERP today?  Market and solar go up big and these two are stuck at neutral.  May worth a bet at these low prices (any fingers left?).

Too risky until outcome of court case is known.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With the prices so low, aren't they worth a gamble.  I have seen people gamble on lesser chance of winning (call lottery).

Seriously, the stocks are trading as if Teppers already lost the case.  These may not go down much even if Teppers loses the court case (maybe initial reaction), but they will pop big otherwise.  Besides, you have our resident experts (Explo, Odyd and kknd) and Billionair Tepper on our side.  I also count on collecting dividends if the SP languish down here. Good luck. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Jetmoney said:

With the prices so low, aren't they worth a gamble.  I have seen people gamble on lesser chance of winning (call lottery).

Seriously, the stocks are trading as if Teppers already lost the case.  These may not go down much even if Teppers loses the court case (maybe initial reaction), but they will pop big otherwise.  Besides, you have our resident experts (Explo, Odyd and kknd) and Billionair Tepper on our side.  I also count on collecting dividends if the SP languish down here. Good luck. 

Only if you have the money to lose.  If TERP loses the court case, I think they can easily crater another $2/share or more.  Yes, they'll eventually come back, but it'll be dead money until they do.  If you've got the buying power in your portfolio to handle that risk, yes, it might be worth the gamble.  Unfortunately, I don't--I have to be conservative for now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Jetmoney said:

With the prices so low, aren't they worth a gamble.  I have seen people gamble on lesser chance of winning (call lottery).

Seriously, the stocks are trading as if Teppers already lost the case.  These may not go down much even if Teppers loses the court case (maybe initial reaction), but they will pop big otherwise.  Besides, you have our resident experts (Explo, Odyd and kknd) and Billionair Tepper on our side.  I also count on collecting dividends if the SP languish down here. Good luck. 

Why not wait for ruling and if favorable TERP by the upswing.  It won't be a one day run.  Sure you miss some of pop but you limit any downside risk.  im eagerly watching with cash in hand....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

any news the events from today?  read above they were meeting?...

 

Guess i'm one of the only ones here still holding CSIQ as a primary (sole) position.  Very happy with today.  Need mid 20's in the next 2 weeks.  China loans at an all time high and oil APPEARS to be stalling on run down... i can see some market stabilization from now until May

Not tooting, but i bloody knew last week was a bottom/capitulation.  Should've risked a bit of margin.  I see a nice double bottom on CSIQ now, so the intermediate term upside could be 50% from today

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, bodhi said:

any news the events from today?  read above they were meeting?...

 

Guess i'm one of the only ones here still holding CSIQ as a primary (sole) position.  Very happy with today.  Need mid 20's in the next 2 weeks.  China loans at an all time high and oil APPEARS to be stalling on run down... i can see some market stabilization from now until May

Not sole position but prime position at 70% with TSL as the other position at 30%. Sure hope Csiq goes to mid 20 soon. Or a quick decision from TSL on privatization. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, bodhi said:

Pop, still no position in the market?

Reloaded FSLR while it was red today about half hour ago.  Fully loaded.  It has underperformed over the past week while others in sector have outperformed.  I'm banking on strong guidance from SPWR tonight and a lot of positivity about ITC extension on call.  FSLR has been good to me and I feel like I have been able to time trades pretty well. Feel like now is right time to re enter, sub 63...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, pg6solar said:

Great 15Q4 non-GAAP with disastrous GAAP numbers. I gave up on SPWR's reporting a while back - no clue how street will interpret it.

Not so great ER, they included the revenue from q1 2016...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

($ Millions, except percentages and per-share data)

4th Quarter

2015

3rd Quarter

2015

4th Quarter

2014

FY 2015

FY 2014

GAAP revenue

$374.4

$380.2

$1,164.2

$1,576.5

$3,027.3

GAAP gross margin

5.4%

16.5%

22.3%

15.5%

20.6%

GAAP net income (loss)

($127.6)

($56.3)

$134.7

($187.0)

$245.9

GAAP net income (loss) per diluted share

($0.93)

($0.41)

$0.83

($1.39)

$1.55

Non-GAAP revenue1

$1,363.9

$441.4

$609.7

$2,612.7

$2,618.7

Non-GAAP gross margin1

28.8%

17.7%

20.4%

23.9%

19.6%

Non-GAAP net income1

$270.4

$20.5

$39.4

$337.8

$205.1

Non-GAAP net income per diluted share1

$1.73

$0.13

$0.26

$2.17

$1.33

EBITDA1

$379.9

$54.2

$84.9

$556.5

$373.9

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • Donate

    Please donate to support this community. We appreciate all donations!

    Donate Sidebar by DevFuse
  • Upcoming Events

    No upcoming events found
  • Forum Statistics

    • Total Topics
      32
    • Total Posts
      92,717
  • Who's Online (See full list)



×
×
  • Create New...