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9 minutes ago, disdaniel said:

It never ceases to amaze me how little the market cares about the numbers individual (Chinese solar) companies put up--at least when they are good...

Exactly why Trina left, JA wants to and can be taken out on a cheap, and Jinko will surely follow too.

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Sour reaction to great reports is not a good omen. I remember second half of 2010 and some analysts said "things can't get much better than this" when things looked brighter than ever and next year showed massive shipment growth while PPS faded before falling off a cliff. Mr Market is sensing this party is peaking and moving on..?

Edited by explo

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Back in CSIQ at 15.11.  Fully loaded, looking for a small bounce here, won't be holding these shares long.  Looking to unload at 15.50 unless it can break through easily and then I'll be dumping around 15.8x.

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$15 CSIQ looks amazingly cheap vs its peers. Unfortunately it means nothing in terms of share price. While JKS made a sizable rally from 17 to 29 CSIQ made almost nothing. I do not see too much downside from 15 unless a general market crashes. But a general market today consists almost out of FANG and related stocks (they are responsible for 75% of general market moves) i.e. totally under control.

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CS downgraded JKS today from Outperform to neutral.  

However the PT went from $20 to $25.  They boosted their 2017 EPS to 2.30.  The top P/E they imagine is an 8x multiple, on down to 5x.  

Blue sky 34, base case 25, grey sky 4 PTs.

I would post the whole PDF, which has their thinking well detailed, but I have a ridiculous .2MB file upload max size.  Maybe I'll upload the old Atari Combat game instead.

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5 hours ago, alex_iff said:

$15 CSIQ looks amazingly cheap vs its peers. Unfortunately it means nothing in terms of share price. While JKS made a sizable rally from 17 to 29 CSIQ made almost nothing. I do not see too much downside from 15 unless a general market crashes. But a general market today consists almost out of FANG and related stocks (they are responsible for 75% of general market moves) i.e. totally under control.

Hi, Alex, it has been a long time.  I share your view on cheap CSIQ. I look at the CAFD, and the stock is worth about $1.1B based on the solar plant value of $1.96 per watt, not including debt.  They have 569MWac and CSIQ owns 969MWac globally. the stock is worth $860M and the company produces roughly $2.8B in sales a year just from operations of selling modules. Apparently selling US solar plants in Q1 deprives the company of $1B in value according to an analyst from Barclay. That is $16 off the stock price for late sale.  Some things just do not make a lot of sense.

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8 hours ago, dydo said:

Hi, Alex, it has been a long time.  I share your view on cheap CSIQ. I look at the CAFD, and the stock is worth about $1.1B based on the solar plant value of $1.96 per watt, not including debt.  They have 569MWac and CSIQ owns 969MWac globally. the stock is worth $860M and the company produces roughly $2.8B in sales a year just from operations of selling modules. Apparently selling US solar plants in Q1 deprives the company of $1B in value according to an analyst from Barclay. That is $16 off the stock price for late sale.  Some things just do not make a lot of sense.

Analysts  have been really focused on the effect of Suniva to supply & demand.  Lots of questions in Q1 about the boost in demand, and now in Q2 about the decline in demand re: Suniva.

I have not seen an analyst compare solar plant values in a similar way to Robert's most recently yieldco article on SA.

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19 hours ago, pg6solar said:

Exactly why Trina left, JA wants to and can be taken out on a cheap, and Jinko will surely follow too.

I am closely aligned with a few private companies. They could easily go public at nine-figure valuations, but the thought of being public companies is simply abhorrent to their management.

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13 hours ago, dydo said:

Hi, Alex, it has been a long time.  I share your view on cheap CSIQ. I look at the CAFD, and the stock is worth about $1.1B based on the solar plant value of $1.96 per watt, not including debt.  They have 569MWac and CSIQ owns 969MWac globally. the stock is worth $860M and the company produces roughly $2.8B in sales a year just from operations of selling modules. Apparently selling US solar plants in Q1 deprives the company of $1B in value according to an analyst from Barclay. That is $16 off the stock price for late sale.  Some things just do not make a lot of sense.

I  come to a different conclusion in book values  and share price. If one takes project asset valuation less accrued debt. CAFD has nearly $1B in asset valuation in this instance vs CSIQ having near $300M in out of pocket investments for their projects.

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I think you are mixing corporate debt with project debt 

I would like to see your math. 

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