35,545 posts in this topic

15 minutes ago, Jetmoney said:

I hope you still have spwr and fslr shorts, and if you do, it is not a bad time to cover and take profits.  Good job!  Odyd did it again.

Of course... not!  I covered Friday before all that witching business.  I knew it should head to 6 something (yes thanks odyd), but couldn't stomach another climb towards 8.  Oh well, made some OK profits though probably lost a month off my life.  (when it was skyrocketing I was wondering if I'd push past my margin limits... yeah.  I need some practice)

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21 minutes ago, Jetmoney said:

I hope you still have spwr and fslr shorts, and if you do, it is not a bad time to cover and take profits.  Good job!  Odyd did it again.

BTW, don't you think we'll get to a sub $5 SPWR level over the next couple quarters?  It's a bit of a risky short to hold though as Total may step in take them out -- though as odyd says, it'll unlikely be at a premium due to debt requirements.

 

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38 minutes ago, sunnypease said:

BTW, don't you think we'll get to a sub $5 SPWR level over the next couple quarters?  It's a bit of a risky short to hold though as Total may step in take them out -- though as odyd says, it'll unlikely be at a premium due to debt requirements.

 

I don't care much for SPWR.  However, at this price point, it may not be favorable to short FSLR based on risk/reward posture.  Good luck.

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On 3/19/2017 at 3:02 PM, odyd said:

I am thinking about the article on solar investing, and I put this one-page presentation, which will be used as a base of it. I am waiting for data from CSIQ and Hanwha to complete the draft.

This is very helpful.   Good to see all the numbers in one place.  Thank you, Robert.

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Today FSLR is getting hosed & SPWR likes to ape along.

Today also FSLR was removed from the S&P500.  I've read that this means today & the next few(?) days ETFs like SPY will be selling FSLR, because they have to.  

I'm rather happy about this as maybe we'll see solar stocks trade without so much SPY influence.

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On ‎3‎/‎18‎/‎2017 at 2:16 PM, odyd said:

I had a moment to look at the ASP for JKS, which was obtained from transcripts for every Q of 2016, I multiplied it by sold volume of modules, and I got an average of the $0.49 per watt ASP for 2016.

I did 4GW at $0.38 and about 5GW at $0.34, would give me about $0.36 per watt average for 2017. It means the power of ASP would drop by some 28% in 2017. Using the $0.35 from Q4 to Q4 2017 as $0.30, I got an average of cost as a $0.32 which is about 9% drop. The best I can get for GM is about 11.2%

The revenue at 9GW sold is about $3.2B, using 2% net income this is about $60M in profit. In 2015 net profit was about 4.25%, it was 8.54% in 2016, but after deducting $143M, it is about 3.89%.

I think JKS can remain profitable through 2017.

Good analysis.  Thanks!

ASPs dropping by 28% in one year--ouch!  As long as ASPs were high and costs were high, dropping ASPs could be mitigated by lowering costs.  But now that both ASPs and costs are quite low, do you have any insights on how much further can costs be lowered?

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On ‎3‎/‎18‎/‎2017 at 3:14 PM, sunnypease said:

And what about 2018?  Demand is expected to be good again?

The problem isn't demand, despite the word "glut" still being used frequently.  JKS certainly isn't seeing a glut, at least not for its products.  The problem is falling margins, requiring ever-increasing shipment volumes to maintain the same level of profit.  Usually, as shipments rise, so do profits.  Not so for this industry.  That trend has to eventually change--to use a calculus analogy, you can't reach the limit of infinite shipments with infinitesimal profits per unit shipped.  The question becomes, what happens to each individual company as we approach that limit?  Do they go under, or do they survive and emerge into a new, stable balance between ASPs and costs?  And when does this happen?

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4 minutes ago, solarpete said:

The problem is falling margins, requiring ever-increasing shipment volumes to maintain the same level of profit.  

Do they go under, or do they survive and emerge into a new, stable balance between ASPs and costs?  And when does this happen?

At some point, solar becomes cheap enough to deploy en masse.  I guess what is holding that back now is: companies with too much debt already, sleeping politicians, the balance of system costs still too high?

Once we hit en masse, then won't there just be a mad rush for the stuff?   Everyone pushing & elbowing to get it.

Also, this glut will shake out some weaker players.  When there are fewer players, maybe they'll collude a bit to raise or stabilize prices?  

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Sounds like they got the Turkish government to pay for a solar factory in Turkey?  1.3B for 1GW must include the cost of the factory. Or?

42 minutes ago, odyd said:

I have a feeling that Hanwha is going to do rather well this year. there could be easy 40% return, if this thing had a volume. 

https://www.pv-tech.org/news/hanwha-q-cells-and-kalyon-enerji-win-1gw-solar-tender-in-turkey

If HQCL has some upside potential, now seems like a good time to buy.  The stock has never been cheaper.  

I forgot to buy some CSIQ ahead of earnings.  Do you think they will beat?   They made a lot of news within the quarter.

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