35,545 posts in this topic

Yes, I hold CSIQ, both a position from a much higher price and a trading position from the mid-15s (where I thought the bottom was a few months ago).  If it drops after ER, I'll likely buy another trading position, as long as their guidance isn't dismal.

I agree the market isn't always rational.  But in this case, with expectations being negative, I think a drop before ER is logical.  (It's also why I'm not buying more before ER.  We might see a double whammy--a drop before ER based on poor expectations, and a further drop after ER if those expectations are confirmed.)

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Major YGE malfunction in the last minutes of trading. Ouch!

Stock didn't react on the day they announce they'd need to restructure their credit or something like that.  But all of a sudden this move.  I wonder if BK is coming up soon?

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Huge volume for FSLR on a downside, especially on close (25%). Is it simply options expiration and S&P exit rebalance related, or is it something else?

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22 minutes ago, pg6solar said:

is it something else?

All the solars were very weak today.  

JASO also nearly gave back all of yesterday's gain.

Was it because the market realized there will be a second glut?

Or was it something Trump or government did today?  Slashing the EPA budget? (but that was yesterday)

Or is in the Trump executive action to kill the CPP axe that is hanging over the solar's heads?

I guess there was already a downward trend that was interrupted only by the rate announcement and some oil drama.  And the same can be said for the overall market.

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I wasn't questioning why FSLR is down. I was curious what caused 18M volume on down side, with 1/3 of the total day's volume traded on the close (including first 20 minutes AH). S&P rebalance is the answer.

 

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It appears making cells have small margins, making mono wafers have best margins and modules have high margins again. This Longi's recipe seems to give the edge to JKS.

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HQCL is dropping hard as well beside YGE; they report next week, it would be curious to see. Also, the trading volume went up. NRG both modules from SunPower and Hanwha this year. 

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I had a moment to look at the ASP for JKS, which was obtained from transcripts for every Q of 2016, I multiplied it by sold volume of modules, and I got an average of the $0.49 per watt ASP for 2016.

I did 4GW at $0.38 and about 5GW at $0.34, would give me about $0.36 per watt average for 2017. It means the power of ASP would drop by some 28% in 2017. Using the $0.35 from Q4 to Q4 2017 as $0.30, I got an average of cost as a $0.32 which is about 9% drop. The best I can get for GM is about 11.2%

The revenue at 9GW sold is about $3.2B, using 2% net income this is about $60M in profit. In 2015 net profit was about 4.25%, it was 8.54% in 2016, but after deducting $143M, it is about 3.89%.

I think JKS can remain profitable through 2017.

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Net income margin remained constant for JASO through 2015 and 2016 around 4.40%

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