35,506 posts in this topic

I am not doing any guesses any more, it seems it doesn't matter

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/24/2017 at 6:12 PM, odyd said:


My estimate is per watt, irrelevant of cells. Think of % of volume and move the scale up for modules.

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk
 

Jaso is a good study case because their biz is almost all modules.  Also they don't have much of a downstream business. It seems that with JASO one can more easily see what is happening in the industry.

I had mixed up ASPs and costs.  Q3 JASO had .38 blended module cost.  

You said .38-.40 revenue. They expected low 40s.

If their cost came down a penny to .37, then they could have .01-.03/W revenue.  Margin 2-8%

1.5GW would be 15-45M revenue before operational costs which were 68 million in Q3.  They could cut out 8 million R&D so you end with (45)-(15)M for the quarter.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

About that bottom...

Researching solars this weekend I guessed why many may be thinking the bottom for solar is in.

ASP drop by quarter:

Q3:  (20+%)
Q4: (8%)
2/3 of Q1:(2.8%)

Mr. Market thinks the drop in ASPs is done.  Now he plans for companies to survive and then grow while demand picks up / 2nd tier supply dies.
 

According to Credit Suisse there will still be a large imbalance between supply & demand this year & we may see another big price drop in 2H 2017.

However, news from China can be confusing about the GW they will install this year.

Positive events could be:  China FIT cuts create rush of demand, Europe does not extend solar tariffs, Republicans advance carbon tax, others convince Trump not to back away from CPP / Paris treaty.

But maybe none of those are needed as Chinese solar companies can scrape by with these small positive / negative margins for a few quarters.

So maybe it really is a bottom?

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Will the pattern repeat with sell on the ER day and then more than recover the next day?

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, explo said:

Will the pattern repeat with sell on the ER day and then more than recover the next day?

The reports was too strong. I don't think I'll get my fill today. Glad I got to top up my JKS holding last week though.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Any details from cc?

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, odyd said:

Any details from cc?

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk
 

They said the 2H will be strong in the US.  

And that China will install 20GW in the first half & then 8GW in the second half.  Also the poverty alleviation program is extra on top of that.  

Also, in the news recently that India will double it's solar park target (but it's residential target was non realistic) to 40gw from 20gw by 2020

 https://www.pv-magazine.com/2017/02/24/india-solar-park-target-should-not-be-limited-to-40-gw-if-demand-is-there-says-mercom/

Credit Suisse refutes this > 20GW claim for China in recent reports.

 

 

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I see Johnson gotta hold of. calculator on FSLR.

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What is quite scary, I wound make the same comments as Johnson. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-streets-biggest-solar-power-184132741.html
One of Wall Street’s biggest solar bears is back at it. Axiom’s Gordon Johnson, who correctly predicted the downfall of SunEdison in 2016 , initiated First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR ) at a sell in a note ...

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now