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The majority are contractual agreements, not paying those have consequences. However, there are another $400M, SPWR will lose money for two years including 2018. That's $891M including $343M for debenture. They say they will end up with $300M in cash at the end I wonder how.

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It looks like their third party module sales were negative 6% GM. I think they were probably less than that since that includes PPA and EPC for commercial projects. I would say they would sell modules at 10% below their cost.

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OK I looked over the 10K & could not find their current cash level. 

You said they owe 891M over two years & each year they lose money.  So they better have more than 890M in cash now.

Something in there about their "construction revolver" is frozen because their Ebitda to the debt is not high enough.

Enough of this my head hurts.  It's 1 am here!

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14 minutes ago, odyd said:

It looks like their third party module sales were negative 6% GM. I think they were probably less than that since that includes PPA and EPC for commercial projects. I would say they would sell modules at 10% below their cost.

And they blame the Chinese for dumping panels.  OK not fair, it's hard to compete when your headquarters & work force are in Silicon Valley.

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I must say I am deeply confused with the solar market today. Today's is probably the biggest day of confusion. Negative margins, losses expected for two years and stocks are getting double digit trades in one session.

I made a comparison to SunEdison in the case of SunPower, I do not things are that bad, but SPWR is going to have a hard time. They have five plants with PPAs, and two are sold and have yet to collect $227M. Rest are in Mexico and Chile, and they cannot build them above the cost.

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8 hours ago, odyd said:

I must say I am deeply confused with the solar market today. Today's is probably the biggest day of confusion. Negative margins, losses expected for two years and stocks are getting double digit trades in one session.

Do you think maybe the market is starting to realize that things are so bad for Sunpower that a buyout is likely?

Also, imagine how it is for people who do not study what is happening within the industry.  If they go on what the CEO says: "orders are strong"  "headwinds may persist but still everything is pretty good".  

It all sounds better than last quarter when there was surprise & fear at how bad it was.

There are a lot of people who look at the 5 year chart on these companies & think about them the same way as Iron Ore or Steel.  They go from 40 -> 2 and then at some point maybe back to 40.  There are some hardcore speculators appearing, wanting to jump in at the right time & quadruple their money.  

 

Sorry I didn't understand you when you said that they have two plants in Mexico & Chile that they cannot build above cost.  You mean they don't have money to build them?  Or that the PPAs are for not enough money to make them profitable?

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Sorry about saying they cannot build them above the cost and confusing everyone. That made no sense. It meant to be they can not sell plants above the cost.

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TSL has recovered the dip after EGM. There are several SEC filings this month showing that hedge funds have loaded up. Are people here still holding that 15% discount to buyout price?

 

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