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My speculation on why FSLR stock is indecisive in its drop is that some see former CFO (knowing the profit drainers well) being new CEO pulling out the big axe and slashing jobs. The EPS effect of that will be lasting while the short-term market challenges and technology generation shift pain is not. It will be a long wait, but the kitchen sink is thrown out and the foundation for a more prosperous future laid. Market will likely have a polarized view on the story in terms of outlook timeline. There will likely be volatilty to milk. I missed to tap some good recent volatily due to vacation traveling..

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Well it hasn't dropped down below 30 yet.  Still a good short?  

Maybe it's the Walmart family weighing in?  Just prop up the price by buying them up.  I suppose they have first hand knowledge of FSLR's chances.

Won't ex-employees be selling stock?

UBS target 25

roth 27

CS 30

Roth 33

avondale 20

JMP upgraded it to mkt perform

Who to listen to?  CS seems to do good analysis, but their price targets never seem to get reached.

Matt

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PEGI deflating.    should have waited for the effect of the 10 year yield spike to wear off.  oh well!

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3 hours ago, sunnypease said:
PEGI deflating.    should have waited for the effect of the 10 year yield spike to wear off.  oh well!


What did you buy it at? With 0.40 dividend your cost is guaranteed to come down and if you have enough dividend you can buy shares. I do not mind a price drop. I know their business and their business plan, with solar I do not know what will happen in q2




Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk
 

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10 hours ago, sunnypease said:

Well it hasn't dropped down below 30 yet.  Still a good short?  

Maybe it's the Walmart family weighing in?  Just prop up the price by buying them up.  I suppose they have first hand knowledge of FSLR's chances.

Won't ex-employees be selling stock?

UBS target 25

roth 27

CS 30

Roth 33

avondale 20

JMP upgraded it to mkt perform

Who to listen to?  CS seems to do good analysis, but their price targets never seem to get reached.

Matt

It will be no more that $20 by the same next year. They need to invest $1B in series 6, at -$0.10 per share in 2017, they will have to tap the cash. Sure they have around $1.8B, but what will cover 2018 expenses? They will probably make no money in 2018 either. spend at least $160M on R&D. FSLR is in a bad place.

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I am expecting Canadian and Pattern to benefit from projects in Alberta and Saskatchewan, in Canada. Canadian can do business with Suncor and Samsung and Pattern Development company can do business in wind. They have already a lot of presence in Canada. Good offset for Canadian if business cools off in the US. Canadian looks brilliant with their Japanese portfolio. 

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15 hours ago, odyd said:

It will be no more that $20 by the same next year. They need to invest $1B in series 6, at -$0.10 per share in 2017, they will have to tap the cash. Sure they have around $1.8B, but what will cover 2018 expenses? They will probably make no money in 2018 either. spend at least $160M on R&D. FSLR is in a bad place.

I agree, there's a lot of execution risk here, and who knows how the industry dynamics will change by then (2018-2019). I would expect FSLR to hit below $20 within the next year as well. I continue to be on the sides during this downturn, this time I was caught on guard and have avoided this downturn almost entirely, unlike 2011-2012 where I was deeply underwater.

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I had a chance to look at more of the numbers from JKS. ASP was $0.50; Q4 predicted as low $0.40s. The cost's blend at $0.35. Q4 2017 expected to be around $0.315, this could do 17% at 0.38 per watt selling. 

It is clear that JKS has higher prices than a bottom of the spot prices. I am also reading that they expect the second half of 2017 as an increase in the US market. I looked at their pro forma BS and looks very good.

JKS should really do well, but the market refuses to pay for it.

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My average is 19.5. 

My biggest fear with PEGI is I just don't understand the effect of these rising interest rates.  The 10 year just keeps climbing.

So for PEGI they will have higher borrowing costs.

Certainly lower yield bonds are getting sold off.  So far junk bonds (high yield) have not been majorly affected.  

To me, PEGI just seems too good to be true.  How can you get 8.5% dividend without some bigger risk than JNK for example?  

And my question about the IRR of projects vs PEGI's dividend seems relevant -- though there is a good chance I don't understand:  How can PEGI pay a higher dividend than their projects' IRR?

Matt

On 11/18/2016 at 9:16 PM, odyd said:


What did you buy it at? With 0.40 dividend your cost is guaranteed to come down and if you have enough dividend you can buy shares. I do not mind a price drop. I know their business and their business plan, with solar I do not know what will happen in q2




Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk
 

on?

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