34,764 posts in this topic

You have two things going on but price action will dictate if this move is for real.  We have better news on new supply being flat and stabilization of prices due to demand rush in China before FIT cuts in Q1 2017.  This gives us potential for an exciting short term trade.  We could see 50%+ moves from currently depressed prices in names like CSIQ, FSLR, & JKS.  Of course we all know those could prove to be much larger if history repeats itself.  At least we have a bit of hope for a change.  GLTA

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Update from Gintech, it appears that market pricing is recovering, however, I have a feeling that we are looking at the trap. I am not in the market for mfgs, and it looks like a missed boat on my actions, but I see no changes long term, and we have not seen effects of the ASP drops on financial results or guidance yet. If I was in the market, I would use current moves probably try to capitalize on the gains.  This is of course just my view so anyone should build their own take.

Gintech Energy Corporation announced its unaudited monthly revenue for September 2016.

 

Net sales in September 2016 were NT$716 million, an increase of 18.6% month-over-month from NT$604 million in August 2016, and a decrease of 48.4% year-over-year from NT$1,387 million in September 2015. On a quarterly basis, net sales in Q3/2016 were NT$2,167 million, a decrease of 53.1% quarter-over-quarter from NT$4,624 million in Q2/2016 and a decrease of 49.6% year-over-year from NT$4,301 million in Q3/2015.

 

Our monthly revenue increased sequentially driven by strong shipment recovery despite lower ASP. Demand from China stalled in Q3/2016 due to the transition of 2015/2016 policies and thus triggered severe inventory correction. However, volumes picked up significantly in late Sep/2016 after the industry digested excessive inventory in Q3/2016, especially for high efficiency products.

 

As Chinese demand for 2016 has kicked off and is expected to sustain into 1H/2017, we are seeing order momentum and pricing stabilization entering Q4/2016. In addition, after the correction, emerging markets, such as India, are reacting positively to the attractive price points. We believe the lowering solar electricity costs which leads to grid parity can open up more markets.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, it's impossible to know if the current uptrend in manufacturers will continue, or if they will fall back down.  We should have more clarity after they report Q3, and update guidance for Q4 and 2017.

I've been having some luck trading the volatility associated with the current uptick in various names (TERP, GLBL, RUN, and even a little CSIQ).  It's not much, but at least I'm not losing money, and it pays the margin interest while I'm waiting for a larger recovery.

Hope everyone else out there is also doing well!

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pegi and Nyld have been weak lately while manufacturers having good time.  Is there a reason for Pegi and nyld recent weakness?  Good time to switch some?

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Axiom is not seeing a glut, yes both PEGI and NYLD are weak, testing my patience. I think it has to do with regulatory environment about yieldcos, and ITC and inquires about it.

https://www.thestreet.com/story/13843717/1/china-s-incentive-cuts-mean-the-time-to-buy-solar-is-now.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, sac_solar said:

its so strange to see Gordon raise rating on Chinese solar companies

Is this the same Gordo who just a couple weeks ago said to SHORT Trina?

Although I'll cut him some slack--he couldn't have known about the Chinese FIT cut, and the logic about a near-term bounce makes sense.  Best to know when to admit a mistake and reverse course.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now