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dydo

Beyond Solar

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On ‎1‎/‎3‎/‎2019 at 6:05 PM, explo said:

Some M&A activity in biotech. BMY is buying my CELG. 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bristol-myers-squibb-acquire-celgene-115800546.html

Some M&A activity in fintech. FIS is buying my WP.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fis-worldpay-combine-accelerate-future-070000204.html

I'm getting a bit tired of my picks for long-term success getting bought..

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3 hours ago, explo said:

Some M&A activity in fintech. FIS is buying my WP.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fis-worldpay-combine-accelerate-future-070000204.html

I'm getting a bit tired of my picks for long-term success getting bought..

Look on the bright side, others confirmed values you saw from your analyiss and the buyouts should give a nice short term premium spike.

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12 hours ago, SCSolar said:

Look on the bright side, others confirmed values you saw from your analyiss and the buyouts should give a nice short term premium spike.

Yes, it is sort of confirming that the strategy picks well, but the strategy assumes picking well something that can contribute for a long time. To me it seems now that if an asset is too good to hold for public shareholders someone will take off the public market. So far it's only a few cases, but in each case the buyers has offered their stocks in exchange but those stocks have been far away from qualifying for allocation, which means that my pool is getting depleted of quality. So far its only a few stocks, but at this rate the strategy might not work as easily as I had hoped over the long-term. I was aware it needed maintenance for failures, but I did not realize that buyouts might be a far more frequent cause of quality depletion.

The strategy can be somewhat compared to managing a soccer team and the philosophy is sort of: That Ronaldo and Messi are now proven good providers for the teams they've played in. Their outperformance is more likely to continue than not and therefore I will pick them for my dream team and I will pick other individually good players that are also complementary to each other to make the team greater than the sum of its parts. However some previously good players can fail by getting irrecoverable injury or loss of motivation or similar, but in this case it is like somebody buy them out to join a higher league or something and they are no longer available to soccer team managers in this league and the buyout premium is nowhere close to cover their long-term contribution potential and I'm offered another soccer player in exchange that is not competitive in my team (low performance or not good match of complementary qualities with the rest of the team).

It's not a complaint more an observation and realization that constructing outperformance is no simple one-off recipe. The big leagues will claim the talents discovered and the scouting has to continue. The strategy might still work, but not as well and effortlessly as presumed.

 

Edited by explo

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9 minutes ago, explo said:

Yes it is sort of confirming that the strategy picks well, but the strategy assumes picking well something that can contribute for a long time. To me it seems now that if an asset is too good to hold for public shareholders someone will take off the public market. So far it's only a few cases, but in each case the buyers has offered their stocks in exchange but those stocks have been far away from qualifying for allocation, which means that my pool is getting depleted of quality. So far its only a few stocks, but at this rate the strategy might not work as easily as I had hoped over the long-term. I was aware it needed maintenance for failures, but I did not realize that buyouts might be a far more frequent cause of quality depletion.

The strategy can be somewhat compared to managing a soccer team and the philosophy is sort of: That Ronaldo and Messi are now proven good providers for the teams they've played in. Their outperformance is more likely to continue than not and therefore I will pick them for my dream team and I will pick other individually good players that are also complementary to each other to make the team greater than the sum of its parts. However some previously good players can fail by getting irrecoverable injury or loss of motivation or similar, but in this case it is like somebody buy them out to join NBA or something and they are no longer available to soccer team managers and the buyout premium is nowhere close to cover their long-term contribution potential and I'm offered another soccer player in exchange that is not competitive in my team (low performance or not good match of complementary qualities with the rest of the team).

It's not a complaint more an observation and realization that constructing outperformance is no simple one off recipe. The big leagues will claim the talents discovered and the scouting has to continue.

 

I am always reminded of what my dad has always said about investing. It's always good to be paying taxes, it beats the alternative.

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7 minutes ago, SCSolar said:

I am always reminded of what my dad has always said about investing. It's always good to be paying taxes, it beats the alternative.

😄

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Looks like SGMO got finally their research to yield continuous stable result. Hemophilia A trial with Pfizer got updated last night. Comparable companies have 3 times market value average. If you risk tolerable could be the start of big return. 

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Once again Sangamo got destroyed. Phase 3 for hemophilia confirmed and transferred to Pfizer with IND done in new year.

image.png

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Sgmo has lots in the pipeline.  Why short positions are so high?  What do the shorts know that we don’t?  Don’t they believe in the pipeline?

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7 hours ago, Jetmoney said:

Sgmo has lots in the pipeline.  Why short positions are so high?  What do the shorts know that we don’t?  Don’t they believe in the pipeline?

No idea. I think the transparency behind some of the moves are pressing the shares as timelines allow shorts to act.

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Hi Robert!

Do you think Portola (PTLA) is done or any chance to recover at least to $20, in the following month, and therefore is a good buy now?

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18 hours ago, MVA said:

Hi Robert!

Do you think Portola (PTLA) is done or any chance to recover at least to $20, in the following month, and therefore is a good buy now?

Portola is purely the  revenue growth story. If think of the revenue of $100M in 2019, the PE is about 10. In my opinion there is a potential for recovery beyond 20 but patience would be advisable. Too many shortsellers are crowding the stock. I do not own it for sometime. I am to engaged elsewhere and do not have cash. If I did I likely would buy to see where it goes. Proceed with caution

  • Thanks 1

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1 hour ago, dydo said:

Portola is purely the  revenue growth story. If think of the revenue of $100M in 2019, the PE is about 10. In my opinion there is a potential for recovery beyond 20 but patience would be advisable. Too many shortsellers are crowding the stock. I do not own it for sometime. I am to engaged elsewhere and do not have cash. If I did I likely would buy to see where it goes. Proceed with caution

Thank you for your opinion!

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My TSLA is going parabolic.  Their Solarcity division too, but the reason the stock has gone nuts is "beyond solar". It might become my first forced profit taking stock. 

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5 hours ago, explo said:

My TSLA is going parabolic.  Their Solarcity division too, but the reason the stock has gone nuts is "beyond solar". It might become my first forced profit taking stock. 

It reached the portfolio's forced profit taking limit today.

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49 minutes ago, explo said:

It reached the portfolio's forced profit taking limit today.

Their run for a large market cap has been astounding.  Their run up since June is 400%

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1 hour ago, explo said:

It reached the portfolio's forced profit taking limit today.

What a lovely problem to have!  Congratulations!!

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14 minutes ago, SCSolar said:

Their run for a large market cap has been astounding.  Their run up since June is 400%

Yes, it takes a lot for a forced 75% trimming to be triggered in my portfolio, but this one hit it now.

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2 minutes ago, solarpete said:

What a lovely problem to have!  Congratulations!!

Thanks Pete. A first for my new portfolio (13 months old).

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10 hours ago, Jetmoney said:

Good job and congrats!

Thanks Jet. Lucky to get a buying frenzy in one of my stocks.

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4 hours ago, SCSolar said:

Do not giant short squeezes eventually pull back significantly?

I'm not an expert on shorting but I would guess that it would be a short-term volatility event to the upside. Right now I feel good about that 75% reduction of the position yesterday.

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