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On ‎1‎/‎3‎/‎2019 at 6:05 PM, explo said:

Some M&A activity in biotech. BMY is buying my CELG. 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bristol-myers-squibb-acquire-celgene-115800546.html

Some M&A activity in fintech. FIS is buying my WP.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fis-worldpay-combine-accelerate-future-070000204.html

I'm getting a bit tired of my picks for long-term success getting bought..

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3 hours ago, explo said:

Some M&A activity in fintech. FIS is buying my WP.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fis-worldpay-combine-accelerate-future-070000204.html

I'm getting a bit tired of my picks for long-term success getting bought..

Look on the bright side, others confirmed values you saw from your analyiss and the buyouts should give a nice short term premium spike.

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12 hours ago, SCSolar said:

Look on the bright side, others confirmed values you saw from your analyiss and the buyouts should give a nice short term premium spike.

Yes, it is sort of confirming that the strategy picks well, but the strategy assumes picking well something that can contribute for a long time. To me it seems now that if an asset is too good to hold for public shareholders someone will take off the public market. So far it's only a few cases, but in each case the buyers has offered their stocks in exchange but those stocks have been far away from qualifying for allocation, which means that my pool is getting depleted of quality. So far its only a few stocks, but at this rate the strategy might not work as easily as I had hoped over the long-term. I was aware it needed maintenance for failures, but I did not realize that buyouts might be a far more frequent cause of quality depletion.

The strategy can be somewhat compared to managing a soccer team and the philosophy is sort of: That Ronaldo and Messi are now proven good providers for the teams they've played in. Their outperformance is more likely to continue than not and therefore I will pick them for my dream team and I will pick other individually good players that are also complementary to each other to make the team greater than the sum of its parts. However some previously good players can fail by getting irrecoverable injury or loss of motivation or similar, but in this case it is like somebody buy them out to join a higher league or something and they are no longer available to soccer team managers in this league and the buyout premium is nowhere close to cover their long-term contribution potential and I'm offered another soccer player in exchange that is not competitive in my team (low performance or not good match of complementary qualities with the rest of the team).

It's not a complaint more an observation and realization that constructing outperformance is no simple one-off recipe. The big leagues will claim the talents discovered and the scouting has to continue. The strategy might still work, but not as well and effortlessly as presumed.

 

Edited by explo

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9 minutes ago, explo said:

Yes it is sort of confirming that the strategy picks well, but the strategy assumes picking well something that can contribute for a long time. To me it seems now that if an asset is too good to hold for public shareholders someone will take off the public market. So far it's only a few cases, but in each case the buyers has offered their stocks in exchange but those stocks have been far away from qualifying for allocation, which means that my pool is getting depleted of quality. So far its only a few stocks, but at this rate the strategy might not work as easily as I had hoped over the long-term. I was aware it needed maintenance for failures, but I did not realize that buyouts might be a far more frequent cause of quality depletion.

The strategy can be somewhat compared to managing a soccer team and the philosophy is sort of: That Ronaldo and Messi are now proven good providers for the teams they've played in. Their outperformance is more likely to continue than not and therefore I will pick them for my dream team and I will pick other individually good players that are also complementary to each other to make the team greater than the sum of its parts. However some previously good players can fail by getting irrecoverable injury or loss of motivation or similar, but in this case it is like somebody buy them out to join NBA or something and they are no longer available to soccer team managers and the buyout premium is nowhere close to cover their long-term contribution potential and I'm offered another soccer player in exchange that is not competitive in my team (low performance or not good match of complementary qualities with the rest of the team).

It's not a complaint more an observation and realization that constructing outperformance is no simple one off recipe. The big leagues will claim the talents discovered and the scouting has to continue.

 

I am always reminded of what my dad has always said about investing. It's always good to be paying taxes, it beats the alternative.

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7 minutes ago, SCSolar said:

I am always reminded of what my dad has always said about investing. It's always good to be paying taxes, it beats the alternative.

😄

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Looks like SGMO got finally their research to yield continuous stable result. Hemophilia A trial with Pfizer got updated last night. Comparable companies have 3 times market value average. If you risk tolerable could be the start of big return. 

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