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Guest sleepyhead

I agree with Norse on this one. It might not be the biggest in 10 years, it might take 12 years or 15 years. But it will be eventually.

 

cls180 - consider cashing in your puts while you are ahead. I am certain that they are producing more cars than before by 10% and will grow a lot quicker from here. They are going to beat analyst consensus by a good margin and that stock is going to go up 20% after earnings on Nov. 5.

 

I have done a lot of research on TSLA, and it is not a good short candidate. Unless there is a big global or US recession, I am fairly confident that any J15 puts you buy are going to expire worthless; even the deep ITM puts.

 

edit: TSLA gross margin excl. ZEV credits went from -4% to 5% to 13% in the last 3 quarters. They are going to do 22% gross margin this quarter and the market is going to flip out. If you want to make money in TSLA you should be buying calls and not puts at these levels.

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Tesla will always be a niche market in that very few people will ever be able to afford their cars. The technology IS superior but unless they can sell a model for $20k profitably, it won't be the largest manufacturer in the world.

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Guest Rice

Tesla will always be a niche market in that very few people will ever be able to afford their cars. The technology IS superior but unless they can sell a model for $20k profitably, it won't be the largest manufacturer in the world.

That's what the wagon/buggy companies told Henry Ford over 100 years ago. Do not underestimate the power of economies of scale.

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I root for TSLA to hit $200+ before the year-end. The time for electric cars has come and will dominate the auto industry faster than most people can imagine, IMHO.

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Guest redsolar

Electric cars and PV Solar ..are match made in heaven.

Tesla is planning to release affordable cars next year. This is only ..just the beginning.

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Guest sleepyhead

Don't kid yourself....

This is a $1000 stock.

 

Yes it is. It will happen within this decade too.

 

What people don't understand is that Tesla is going to release a $35k car in just 3-4 years that will compete with the BMW 3-series as far as performance goes, but will be a lot better. It will compete on price with a Camry, because you save a lot of money on gas and maintenance.

 

Also, never bet against Elon Musk. I never idolized people before in my life (well maybe Michael Jordan when I was really young), but Elon is my idol.

 

And last, but not least here is a quote from Google's Larry Page:

 

"if I were to be hit by a bus today i should leave all my money to Elon Musk."

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Guest sleepyhead

If you don't like Tesla, that is ok.

 

Just please do not short this stock or waste money on long term puts. The only way this stock is going down, barring a black swan event, is in the event of a global recession. In which case you are better off buying puts on the S&P500.

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Guest redsolar

Yes it is. It will happen within this decade too.

 

What people don't understand is that Tesla is going to release a $35k car in just 3-4 years that will compete with the BMW 3-series as far as performance goes, but will be a lot better. It will compete on price with a Camry, because you save a lot of money on gas and maintenance.

 

Also, never bet against Elon Musk. I never idolized people before in my life (well maybe Michael Jordan when I was really young), but Elon is my idol.

 

And last, but not least here is a quote from Google's Larry Page:

 

"if I were to be hit by a bus today i should leave all my money to Elon Musk."

Ya...I love this guy!! Amazing ..showed the world ...how stupid the Auto giants are. The auto giants are grinding the same thing for decades!

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Guest andy1981

I don't even think that TESLA will grow to that level under its own name. I feel this company will get bought over by someone and also Elon (I also have same faith in him as sleepyhead Quoted) is not very much interested in making lots of money but he is more focussed on humanity and advancing it. I feel he will more likely to keep SpaceX and start venturing into Mars and Hyperloop mission than making TESLA 1000 stock.

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Guest sleepyhead

Well he needs Tesla to succeed, so that he makes a lot of money in order to fulfill his mission to Mars.

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Guest andy1981

Yeah thats the race between time and efforts if he needs to put too much efforts in making it 1000 stock say in next 5 years and next year someone offered him $500 for that I feel he will take it. I feel he will leave this company at a point when it will have highest probability of growth (that realization may or may not come in time which will be based on parent company).

 

Look at the strategic move he made when TESLA reached $100 a share (he must have thought its much more than what he expected and that price might not long last but he proved wrong by Market!!!), he immediately paid off loan and made company debt free. He might do similar things when Wall st sees lots of growth and pumped stock to highest level. Also Its hard to be CEO of two companies at the same time and juggling between Northern and Southern California. He will have to give up being CEO of at least one company and one can guess what that company will be based on his talks. 

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I love this guy. There are a few other exciting ventures he is working on like SpaceX. I mean, we are not short of amazing or even crazy ideas but he is one who is trying to make some of these to become reality, however far ahead of out time people might think they are. History, to a large part, is made by heroes and I believe he will be one of them if not already.

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Guest sleepyhead

I love this guy. There are a few other exciting ventures he is working on like SpaceX. I mean, we are not short of amazing or even crazy ideas but he is one who is trying to make some of these to become reality, however far ahead of out time people might think they are. History, to a large part, is made by heroes and I believe he will be one of them if not already.

 

The Hyperloop deserves a mention here as well.

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Guest eysteinh

Yup sunnesky, hopefully smartgrid will be part of the next industrial revolution. Including using car batteries as batteries for the entire grid. Just imagine the energy safety one can have. 

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Guest Norse

For thoose of you that think Tesla is a niche-market check out Norway. They are selling lots of cars here, and in China they will sell 40k annually starting 2015. They will not meet demand until 2025 for sure. I am willing to bet anyone on that.

 

Tesla will crush alot of car-companies and EV cars will have 50% of the market in Europe in 2020.

 

Tesla was nr1 in sales in Norway last month.

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Apple’s VP Of Mac Engineering Joins Tesla Motors
 
 

With word that Tesla is also joining forces with AT&T to provide in-car Internet (another nod to Apple, which released its iPhone exclusively on AT&T), it seems as though Tesla is intent on making a much-more connected car for tomorrow’s roads. Field will almost certainly be put to work on the $35,000 Tesla Model E that is set to debut sometime in 2016 or 2017.

 

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Guest Norse

how many cars does this equate to?

 

If you are asking about Norway that is 616. It's also 6 months waiting list for a model S here. And the car has never been advertised. Everyone is going crazy about it. It's also one month waiting list on just the test-drive.

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Guest sleepyhead

As it is I have about 98% of my liquid net worth in solar stocks and options. If it wasn't for solar, I would have 100% of my liquid net worth in TSLA.

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Guest sleepyhead

TSLA reporting earnings today. I have put together a comprehensive model and here are my expectations:

 

Q3:
5,700 cars delivered,
$633 million in revenue
$0.34 EPS
22% gross margin excl. ZEV

 

vs. Analyst consensus:

$535 million in revenue

$0.11 EPS

 

I used $28m for ZEV credits, but that is a number that is impossible to predict so it can differ and change the bottom line very easily. Every $1.3m of ZEV accounts for $0.01 EPS.

 

ZEV came in at $68m in Q1 and $51m in Q2, so I think $28m is conservative. But it really is hard to tell. It can go either way.

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Guest sleepyhead

Thanks sleepyhead. Do you hold any TSLA or options? 

 

I ran the numbers and bought a bunch of weekly call options that are already up a lot, since I bought them with TSLA at $161-$165. I am holding through ER though.

 

The actual numbers that Tesla reports are not that important. What is important is guidance for Q4 and more importantly what will 2014 look like.

 

Look for GM to be above 20% excl. ZEV credits. and see what Elon says on CC about supplier constraints. If they can resolve those within 3 months and Tesla starts producing at 800/week then the stock will really take off after earnings.

 

If they don't deliver this high GM and good guidance then TSLA might tank.

 

I like the odds for an optimistic outcome; this is Elon Musk after all and he knows what he is doing. Under promise and over deliver is his MO.

 

I am letting my options ride even though I could have cashed out with 100% - 200% gains today at market open (I sold 1 out of about 30). I don't mind the gamble, because I like to put my money where my mouth is.

 

Sooner or later I will hit it big and that will cancel out 10 swings and misses.

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Guest singular

Sleepy, I think you are right on about TSLA. It is one of those companies that Wallstreet wants to succeed and I think they will pay a premium for it. So the pe might be bloated, but that doesn't matter (ala Amazon, Netflix, Chipotle). I was one of the people who bought at $90 and sold a bit too early. Made money, but left a lot on the table. It was intended to be a short term trade given the strong pullback. But it is obvious that it is headed much higher. Might have a bump in the road on ocassion, but higher it will go. I recently bought back in in anticipation of today's earnings. I can't wait to hear what Elon has to say. best of luck!

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I ran the numbers and bought a bunch of weekly call options that are already up a lot, since I bought them with TSLA at $161-$165. I am holding through ER though.

 

The actual numbers that Tesla reports are not that important. What is important is guidance for Q4 and more importantly what will 2014 look like.

 

 

I have some TSLA stock, and I am holding through ER too..

I'm also bullish in Q3 and Q4 guidance, and beyond..

I really think their tech is disruptive, but it's hard to say which is the fair value of the asset.

so, If TSLA strong rises after ER, I'll sell the half and initiate a SOL position..

If not, I will hold the entire position.

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Guest Bodhi

I imagine because its up 385% YTD, and is a brand name american company.

IMO, way overpriced for a company thats posted one quarter in the black

Let the haircut begin.  Sorry for those who are holding, but this stock was way overdue for a dose of gravity.  Could/should still pan out in the long run.

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