Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
dydo

Beyond Solar

Recommended Posts

18 hours ago, pg6solar said:

SBRA's call was long but very detailed and informative. I'm novice to this sector, but am left with most positive vibes of the four calls (VTR, OHI, HCN and SBRA) and will add only to SBRA if market presents an opportunity under $16 again (btw, imo they're a great value already).

One thing which I am picking on is the recycle capital and reduction of FFO or lack of growth of FFO in VTR and HCN results. I consider this a managerial efficiency for whatever reason over recycling properties and perhaps not investing upfront, or for now, into another set, and instead pay the debt. If you consider IR going up, and the company is reducing debt to support flat or somewhat lower FFO I think that is an excellent way to manage conditions. The stock will be sold anyway, not because FFO is 87% but because IR is going up. The company which manages cash well in this environment will be able to invest in quality properties, which will pay better return reflective of new IRs in time simply by the virtue of new leases and new debt levels through IR.   To me, that is a simple model, but have never seen a commentary like that, and I see this in their actions. SBRA may not have as much room to maneuver and move FFO higher say 3 years from now, while I certainly hope HCN could use saved cash, credits and lower debt at work.  SBRA 63% reliance on government fee operators versus 6% of HCN is something I also like as preference.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

All three received downgrades, but SBRA (based on $22 to $21) has the biggest upside. Having said that, how important are the PTs? FSLR was upgraded to $75. Are we rushing to buy it now at $63?  No, we're not.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, pg6solar said:

All three received downgrades, but SBRA (based on $22 to $21) has the biggest upside. Having said that, how important are the PTs? FSLR was upgraded to $75. Are we rushing to buy it now at $63?  No, we're not.

I am just stating what is out there. I do not care for it either way.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

HCN reached >6 year low.  There is so much fear of rising interest rate hitting the dividend stocks.  Let's hope it will bounce back just as hard after this wave of selling.

Looks like I am in for a long haul.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I keep remind to pace myself, otherwise, I will have no finger left.  Feel like a suicide moth.

I did not think Powell said anything that people don't already know.  Why market reacts to news this bad to dividend stocks?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Jetmoney said:

I keep remind to pace myself, otherwise, I will have no finger left.  Feel like a suicide moth.

I did not think Powell said anything that people don't already know.  Why market reacts to news this bad to dividend stocks?

I am 10% down, and I am lucky in comparison for those who are in REITs. Equity down by 26% down on a year both VTR and HCN. As long as the dividend is solid we get cheap stock.  10-year treasury yield is 2.895%, what is this market afraid of?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, dydo said:

I am 10% down, and I am lucky in comparison for those who are in REITs. Equity down by 26% down on a year both VTR and HCN. As long as the dividend is solid we get cheap stock.  10-year treasury yield is 2.895%, what is this market afraid of?

After today, I am break even for the year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

VTR looks strong today.  I hope this is for real and a start of a steady climb.  It has been beaten down for quite some time now.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I only noticed today ALB sunk so much, any buyers, views?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2018-03-03 at 7:00 AM, dydo said:

I only noticed today ALB sunk so much, any buyers, views?

My SQM is down a lot too. I think they both tanked a lot a week or two ago and I saw that a research report on expectation of Lithium prices to fall heavily by 2020 was out that day. ALB and SQM seem to move in a sector sync since I entered SQM.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 3/2/2018 at 6:00 PM, dydo said:

I only noticed today ALB sunk so much, any buyers, views?

My 2 Lithium stocks are down 12% after averaging down. I missed another buy on MLNLF on Friday at 2.25, I decided not to not pull the trigger for a buy on Monday. They are small speculative portions of my portfolio and  I will not be adding any more.

 

On a side note my heavy  CSIQ buy at $14.80 to hold for the buyout is doing quite well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Square (SQ) setting new ATH yesterday and today. Cost average now 9.50. What a run. Incredible. Have to catch up on posts to see what everyone is doing here with solars. Dydo and Explo and everyone else here hope you are doing well. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I see that my PSA is in strong recovery from a recent dip. SCSolar would you say this is company, sector or asset class driven?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, explo said:

I see that my PSA is in strong recovery from a recent dip. SCSolar would you say this is company, sector or asset class driven?

It is none of the above. The Storage Reits I follow PSA EXR and CUBE appear to be tracking the rise of the Dow since Feb 8th. In Fact 2 of the 3 are slightly below the DOW gains. Here are the raw number gains and the chart

DOW 24190 25335 1145 4.73%
EXR 82.51 87.05 4.54 5.50%
PSA 186.78 195 8.22 4.40%
CUBE 26.05 27.14 1.09

4.18%

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EXR/chart?p=EXR#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

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

FYI, we use Square point of sale(and other parts of their ecosystem) at 6 different locations. Last night got an email from them introducing new Square Point of Sale for restaurants that will also fully integrate their delivery service Caviar. Hasn’t hit wires yet but when it does stock will pop. Here is what they sent...

 

https://doc-0s-b8-docs.googleusercontent.com/docs/securesc/ha0ro937gcuc7l7deffksulhg5h7mbp1/l2dbo8bd0trqsijv1qc9mm6uhf1ha4l1/1522771200000/13705283706262052583/*/1fOaDIqg-nAveyyry2KEAS4qUt4yI_88i?e=download

Edited by Pop2mollys

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm happy to announce that my new diversified strategy allows me to hold young gun stocks like SQ. It's now one of my 102 stocks.

At first I leveraged and became petrified, then I balanced and became uncertain, finally I diversified and became tranquil.

Expect a more boring explo from now on. :) 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BYD is on sale

BYDDY

They are profitable.  market share of electric busses in China: 14.73%  

shares outstanding  2.72 billion in 2018

 

I'm copying this from a friend, so I have not vetted.

 

$10.40 right now.   But thats for the ADS.  

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Seeking thoughts and advice.

I'm building an innovative solar module that uses half as many cells, but generates twice as much power as a standard module that I'd like to license to a company already making solar modules.  (Fewer cells b/c I use mirrors, more power because I collect electric as well as thermal power from each cell.)  Net result, the module produces 4x as much power output per solar cell.

Any thoughts on the best company (or person) to approach in the industry?  To date, I've found the module manufacturers very conservative in terms of considering trying something new.  I understand this, but I'd still like to see this module get made (at scale).  Maybe I've simply been talking to the wrong people...

Send me a PM or email with any ideas--thanks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

PTLA is awaiting approval for the manufacturing process of an already approved drug in the US Andexxa. The company is trading about 80 cents above 52 week low. An approval would likely raise it to $30 within a month. Non-approval would kill the stock, by half. Since this is PAS, a post-approval supplemental the odds are on the side of approval, despite a slaughter of the stock. For those with extra funds, a risk acceptable members, it may offer a quick return, within 5 trading days. Please proceed with your own DD before investing, opening position etc.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 12/26/2018 at 8:23 AM, dydo said:

PTLA is awaiting approval for the manufacturing process of an already approved drug in the US Andexxa. The company is trading about 80 cents above 52 week low. An approval would likely raise it to $30 within a month. Non-approval would kill the stock, by half. Since this is PAS, a post-approval supplemental the odds are on the side of approval, despite a slaughter of the stock. For those with extra funds, a risk acceptable members, it may offer a quick return, within 5 trading days. Please proceed with your own DD before investing, opening position etc.

 

Hi all, Portola received its approval Monday 31, 2018. The stock traded over 15% up in 20 minutes. Today it appears some of it may be given back. Another catalyst is on Jan 8th, where the company is likely to discuss strategy for distribution of the product, which there is about $300M worth of inventory. This sold in 2019 would give a triple of the revenue target currently given by analysts. A $1B in sales may indicate the potential of $3 to $6B in the market cap.  So there is a room for the price to go up.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 12/26/2018 at 8:23 AM, dydo said:

PTLA is awaiting approval for the manufacturing process of an already approved drug in the US Andexxa. The company is trading about 80 cents above 52 week low. An approval would likely raise it to $30 within a month. Non-approval would kill the stock, by half. Since this is PAS, a post-approval supplemental the odds are on the side of approval, despite a slaughter of the stock. For those with extra funds, a risk acceptable members, it may offer a quick return, within 5 trading days. Please proceed with your own DD before investing, opening position etc.

 

A 30% return based on the date of the post and today's closing. The stock is at just above $1.3B market. Two M&A actions, BMY, and CELG mentioned by explo and LLY buying LEXO are putting a bit of fire on the buyout candidates.  

 

BMY and Pfizer is a maker of Eliquis and JNJ and Bayer make Xarelto. Andexxa made by Portola is an antidote for the two drugs. Eliquis is more dominant in sales, between overall markets some $12 or $13B in sales in 2019 and more with an available antidote. Now JNJ and Beyer wanted to use Xarelto in the area where Bevyxxa another Portola drug is already approved. Since BMY bought Celgene, JNJ purchase of Portola seems very logical. There is a sense that Portola can help JNJ and the perception that Xarelto has more bleeds with Andexxa. Bottom line Portola is a candidate for a buyout and JNJ seems like a potential buyer. 

At 4 times of Andexxa $1B sales and perhaps $500M for Bevyxxa when fully running, $6B looks like $96 per share. This will not happen tomorrow, but there is a good potential that stock could be $70 by Q3 of this year. Good Luck.  

 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.



  • Donate

    Please donate to support this community. We appreciate all donations!

    Donate Sidebar by DevFuse
  • Upcoming Events

    No upcoming events found
  • Forum Statistics

    • Total Topics
      42
    • Total Posts
      91,111
  • Who's Online (See full list)

    There are no registered users currently online

×