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Guest andy1981

I don't even think that TESLA will grow to that level under its own name. I feel this company will get bought over by someone and also Elon (I also have same faith in him as sleepyhead Quoted) is not very much interested in making lots of money but he is more focussed on humanity and advancing it. I feel he will more likely to keep SpaceX and start venturing into Mars and Hyperloop mission than making TESLA 1000 stock.

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Guest sleepyhead

Well he needs Tesla to succeed, so that he makes a lot of money in order to fulfill his mission to Mars.

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Guest andy1981

Yeah thats the race between time and efforts if he needs to put too much efforts in making it 1000 stock say in next 5 years and next year someone offered him $500 for that I feel he will take it. I feel he will leave this company at a point when it will have highest probability of growth (that realization may or may not come in time which will be based on parent company).

 

Look at the strategic move he made when TESLA reached $100 a share (he must have thought its much more than what he expected and that price might not long last but he proved wrong by Market!!!), he immediately paid off loan and made company debt free. He might do similar things when Wall st sees lots of growth and pumped stock to highest level. Also Its hard to be CEO of two companies at the same time and juggling between Northern and Southern California. He will have to give up being CEO of at least one company and one can guess what that company will be based on his talks. 

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I love this guy. There are a few other exciting ventures he is working on like SpaceX. I mean, we are not short of amazing or even crazy ideas but he is one who is trying to make some of these to become reality, however far ahead of out time people might think they are. History, to a large part, is made by heroes and I believe he will be one of them if not already.

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Guest sleepyhead

I love this guy. There are a few other exciting ventures he is working on like SpaceX. I mean, we are not short of amazing or even crazy ideas but he is one who is trying to make some of these to become reality, however far ahead of out time people might think they are. History, to a large part, is made by heroes and I believe he will be one of them if not already.

 

The Hyperloop deserves a mention here as well.

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Guest eysteinh

Yup sunnesky, hopefully smartgrid will be part of the next industrial revolution. Including using car batteries as batteries for the entire grid. Just imagine the energy safety one can have. 

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Guest Norse

For thoose of you that think Tesla is a niche-market check out Norway. They are selling lots of cars here, and in China they will sell 40k annually starting 2015. They will not meet demand until 2025 for sure. I am willing to bet anyone on that.

 

Tesla will crush alot of car-companies and EV cars will have 50% of the market in Europe in 2020.

 

Tesla was nr1 in sales in Norway last month.

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how many cars does this equate to?

negligible amounts relative to the global auto industry

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Apple’s VP Of Mac Engineering Joins Tesla Motors
 
 

With word that Tesla is also joining forces with AT&T to provide in-car Internet (another nod to Apple, which released its iPhone exclusively on AT&T), it seems as though Tesla is intent on making a much-more connected car for tomorrow’s roads. Field will almost certainly be put to work on the $35,000 Tesla Model E that is set to debut sometime in 2016 or 2017.

 

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Guest Norse

how many cars does this equate to?

 

If you are asking about Norway that is 616. It's also 6 months waiting list for a model S here. And the car has never been advertised. Everyone is going crazy about it. It's also one month waiting list on just the test-drive.

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Guest sleepyhead

As it is I have about 98% of my liquid net worth in solar stocks and options. If it wasn't for solar, I would have 100% of my liquid net worth in TSLA.

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Guest sleepyhead

TSLA reporting earnings today. I have put together a comprehensive model and here are my expectations:

 

Q3:
5,700 cars delivered,
$633 million in revenue
$0.34 EPS
22% gross margin excl. ZEV

 

vs. Analyst consensus:

$535 million in revenue

$0.11 EPS

 

I used $28m for ZEV credits, but that is a number that is impossible to predict so it can differ and change the bottom line very easily. Every $1.3m of ZEV accounts for $0.01 EPS.

 

ZEV came in at $68m in Q1 and $51m in Q2, so I think $28m is conservative. But it really is hard to tell. It can go either way.

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Guest sleepyhead

Thanks sleepyhead. Do you hold any TSLA or options? 

 

I ran the numbers and bought a bunch of weekly call options that are already up a lot, since I bought them with TSLA at $161-$165. I am holding through ER though.

 

The actual numbers that Tesla reports are not that important. What is important is guidance for Q4 and more importantly what will 2014 look like.

 

Look for GM to be above 20% excl. ZEV credits. and see what Elon says on CC about supplier constraints. If they can resolve those within 3 months and Tesla starts producing at 800/week then the stock will really take off after earnings.

 

If they don't deliver this high GM and good guidance then TSLA might tank.

 

I like the odds for an optimistic outcome; this is Elon Musk after all and he knows what he is doing. Under promise and over deliver is his MO.

 

I am letting my options ride even though I could have cashed out with 100% - 200% gains today at market open (I sold 1 out of about 30). I don't mind the gamble, because I like to put my money where my mouth is.

 

Sooner or later I will hit it big and that will cancel out 10 swings and misses.

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Guest singular

Sleepy, I think you are right on about TSLA. It is one of those companies that Wallstreet wants to succeed and I think they will pay a premium for it. So the pe might be bloated, but that doesn't matter (ala Amazon, Netflix, Chipotle). I was one of the people who bought at $90 and sold a bit too early. Made money, but left a lot on the table. It was intended to be a short term trade given the strong pullback. But it is obvious that it is headed much higher. Might have a bump in the road on ocassion, but higher it will go. I recently bought back in in anticipation of today's earnings. I can't wait to hear what Elon has to say. best of luck!

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I ran the numbers and bought a bunch of weekly call options that are already up a lot, since I bought them with TSLA at $161-$165. I am holding through ER though.

 

The actual numbers that Tesla reports are not that important. What is important is guidance for Q4 and more importantly what will 2014 look like.

 

 

I have some TSLA stock, and I am holding through ER too..

I'm also bullish in Q3 and Q4 guidance, and beyond..

I really think their tech is disruptive, but it's hard to say which is the fair value of the asset.

so, If TSLA strong rises after ER, I'll sell the half and initiate a SOL position..

If not, I will hold the entire position.

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Guest Bodhi

I imagine because its up 385% YTD, and is a brand name american company.

IMO, way overpriced for a company thats posted one quarter in the black

Let the haircut begin.  Sorry for those who are holding, but this stock was way overdue for a dose of gravity.  Could/should still pan out in the long run.

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