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Solar Stocks Technical Analysis

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43 minutes ago, tupapa said:

TAN confimed the uptrend with higher highs last week, this sector is as bullish as they get. Now it´s a case of holding on to the winners, letting them run and adding on retracements.

I will be posting new potential entries once the sector corrects. For now I have my eyes on Canadian Solar, I will go long if price breaks and holds above 18 for the abovementioned reasons.

Happy trading, enjoy the forthcoming upwaves.

Tupapa,

Thank you for your analysis.  I have a question, how do you determine if and when CSIQ "breaks and holds above 18?"  Breaking 18 is an easy part, the holding part is not so easy to determine.  How many days and how much above 18 (or pull back) do you consider that it holds above $18?

If you will buy above $18, why not buy it now at some discount?  Are you afraid that if will drop from here and will never break $18?  Thanks.

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DQ.thumb.png.e837a2451d9038a35307abb3e6682bcc.png

I will not buy until it breaks 18$ because price could remain in the current range (15-18) for months. As Livermore would put it, "The point is not so much to buy as low as possible, but to buy at the right time.

And the right time is right before the stock begins an uptrend, so even though I won´t get the lowest price, I don´t want to allocate funds to a stock until it starts to move higher.

Regarding the holding above 18$ part, onced price breaksout, I look at a short time interval like the 30m or the Hourly charts. I want to see price holding above or around 18, and the bars narrowing down during the retracement, which would mean that buyers are still coming in and sellers are not strong enough to push price back into the range.

Of course price could gap up and I could miss the entry, but the market generally presents one with more than one entry oppotunity, for instance with DAQO there are several Opps, one of them could be taking place right now.

First there was the Breakout, (1) which is the most agressive and would require you to be watching the tape during the trading session, in order to see if buyers can keep price from falling back into the range.

Then there was the test (2), which was arguably the best entry since the breakout had been confirmed and a narrow stop loss could be placed below 30.

Finally there is the current retracement (3), which entails the highest risk but is still encouraging. Notice how the most recent daily bars are very narrow, and the volume is shrinking showing diminishing selling interest but ample buying interest (otherwise the down bars would be a lot wider).

If the selling dryes up here and a fresh round of buying comes in (earnings, sector related or any other reason), prices will go up in order to find new sellers that are content with their proffits and happy to let go of their shares.

I hope this helps

 

 

 

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Edited by tupapa
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Unlike the prior times it ventured above 18, this time price is holding above 18 for a few hours now. I am long 1/2 of my total, will go long the ramining after a daily RET

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Beautiful!  Experience the lesson in real time.  Good pop on high volume.

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59fb815d68202_CSIQhourly.thumb.png.8775cc9402c844e9d0133af2a18f19cb.png

Price action in CSIQ is so far very promising. Upon my publishing my last post, there was a strong breakout of resistance on large volume. After the breakout, price retraced on diminishing volume, but look at the narrow bars, this shows lessening selling pressure but buyers still eager to take the shares on the market.

The last hour there was an increase of volume, new buyers came in and price shot upwards in orther to find new sellers.

This is classic retracement action and I will be entering my full possition tomorrow, if price moves above the most recent hourly bar.

As for DAQO, yesterdays price action confirmed the retracement that I pointed out on Monday and price is now following a steeper angle of ascent.

 

Edited by tupapa
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40 minutes ago, tupapa said:

59fb815d68202_CSIQhourly.thumb.png.8775cc9402c844e9d0133af2a18f19cb.png

Price action in CSIQ is so far very promising. Upon my publishing my last post, there was a strong breakout of resistance on large volume. After the breakout, price retraced on diminishing volume, but look at the narrow bars, this shows lessening selling pressure but buyers still eager to take the shares on the market.

The last hour there was an increase of volume, new buyers came in and price shot upwards in orther to find new sellers.

This is classic retracement action and I will be entering my full possition tomorrow, if price moves above the most recent hourly bar.

As for DAQO, yesterdays price action confirmed the retracement that I pointed out on Monday and price is now following a steeper angle of ascent.

 

What percentage of your portfolio you now have for CSIQ?  You show none.

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Well, I have my investment account, today I replaced 10% Scatec Solar with 10% CSIQ, I continue to hold SMA, Sedg and mostly DAQO for the long run.

Then I have my trading account where I have a sizable CSIQ possition for trading purposes, if tomorrow I get an entry trigger, I will have my trading account allocated as follows;

CSIQ 60%

JKS 20%

Sedg 15%

GCl POLY 5%

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Tupapa, were you able to invest full position in CSIQ?  Did you consider CSIQ "break and hold" $18?  How high should it get?  I think Dydo's prediction of $20 before Nov. 9 might come true.  It might go as high as $22 if earning and announcement are good.  Good play on your part.

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Yes I entered the second 1/2 on Friday above Thursdays high. Price action is being bullish and I see no reason to exit unless price falls back into the range, below 18.

Profit Target is more challenging for me but I'm going to try to let these run for as long as possible as long as price stays strong.

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Tupapa, The street treat CSIQ as if it is company specific issue.  Other solar stocks seem unaffected.

So, now CSIQ solidly broke the $18 support.  Is it broken now and what is your take on it, technically?

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