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Solar Stocks Technical Analysis

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On 9/11/2017 at 5:22 PM, Jetmoney said:

Tupapa, The street treat CSIQ as if it is company specific issue.  Other solar stocks seem unaffected.

So, now CSIQ solidly broke the $18 support.  Is it broken now and what is your take on it, technically?

Yes, for me it is no longer a buy unless it can hold and break above 18.12


Thursdays plunge had huge volume, but yesterday prices rallied which shows further buying interest. It is possible that this was the final washout used by buyers to accumulate the final amount before prices take of.

But I'd wanna see a test above 18.12 to take some stops and see if there are further sellers lurcking.

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CSIQ is once again showing a very favourable technical picture;

5a14ae28f2249_CSIQ21-11.thumb.png.3ba65024a9603d2e4ce7e24302604608.png

At point A there was a big round of selling back into the trading range which was caused by the worst than expected earnings.

However, the following day again, on notably high volume buyers supported prices and were able to push them back up towards the upper limit of the trading range, around 18.14.

At this point buyers refrained from bidding up higher, and for the past 6 sessions prices drifted lower on anemic volume, suggesting little professional participation.

Today price ventured above the trading range upper limit, failed to find new buyers and closed close to 18.14.

The above described action, suggests that the big plunge on earnings release was a washout of weak holders that was used by experienced players to accumulate shares.

I will be entering long tomorrow if prices show strength, that is, if buyers are forced to bid up prices above today's highs. Such action would suggest the accumulation camping has been completed, and new buyers will be forced to bid up prices due to the lack of supply at current levels.

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Tupapa,  I was eyeing this company HIMX for a few months now when it was below $8.  This company's stock price is very volatile and may fit your style of investing.  What do you think of it?

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On 11/30/2017 at 11:24 AM, Jetmoney said:

Tupapa,  I was eyeing this company HIMX for a few months now when it was below $8.  This company's stock price is very volatile and may fit your style of investing.  What do you think of it?

Hello Jetmoney,

I had a look at the chart and it looks horrific, there´s no way I would touch a stock that makes lower lows year after year. There is no financial syndicate supporting it, otherwise price wouldn´t be plunging as it keeps doing. I would advise you to stay away from it.

As for myself, I am fully invested into Solar, I don´t have any capital left, I just want to see CSIQ finally breaking out so I can let both stocks run and lower my engagement with the market.

 

 

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11 minutes ago, tupapa said:

As for myself, I am fully invested into Solar, I don´t have any capital left, I just want to see CSIQ finally breaking out so I can let both stocks run and lower my engagement with the market.

 

 

The day CSIQ finally breaks out will be a day when there is much jubilation on this forum.  I'm not even trading it anymore.  Been holding for several weeks now.  Not taking a chance I miss a penny of the move.  I'm only trading FSLR right now, so eager to see if we get any analyst day bump.

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6 hours ago, Mark said:

The day CSIQ finally breaks out will be a day when there is much jubilation on this forum.  I'm not even trading it anymore.  Been holding for several weeks now.  Not taking a chance I miss a penny of the move.  I'm only trading FSLR right now, so eager to see if we get any analyst day bump.

The good think is that like Daqo, if it eventually breaks out of this prolonged period of accumulation, there will be little supply left on the market so we can expect the stock to swiftly rally towards its 2014 Highs.

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In case anybody else is interested in this accumulation stuff, I am sharing my analysis of DQ and CSIQ since both charts are so remarkably similar and they illustrate well this critical market dynamic.

In both charts I have annotated the two major accumulation campaigns of the past decade; First the 2012-2013 campaign, second the 2016-2017 campaign.

Notice how during both campaigns volatility quiets down (the bar narrow) and volume diminishes. This is because a financial syndicate (or a number of them) have decided that a stock is undervalued and they wanna run a campaign, the best time to do this is when there is general apathy or outright despair towards a particular sector, a company or perhaps the whole economy.

So the professional syndicate places bid orders at a narrow range and they spend weeks or even months buying up as much stock as they can handle. Eventually supply dries up (no volume left) there are no sellers left and as market sentiment towards the sector improves and new buyers come in they are forced to bid up prices. Why? Because there is no supply left at current prices since the professionals have accumulated all that was on offer.

So, following the above logic, IF the accumulation in CSIQ is  completed successfully, I would expect volume to pick up and prices to increase sharply in order to find new sellers, just like what happened with DQ some weeks ago.

 

CSIQ DQ.png

Edited by tupapa

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Just curious, tupapa, what do you do for a living?  Full-time trader?  

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23 hours ago, Mark said:

Just curious, tupapa, what do you do for a living?  Full-time trader?  

I am currently studying a masters degree in philosophy. I am an ecologist and I would like to develop a career that makes some contribution to solving climate change.

I have also spent considerable time studying markets and specifically Wyckoffs lessons from the 1900s. But I´m not a professional trader.

Edited by tupapa
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