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On 3/21/2020 at 3:35 AM, explo said:

 

I don't try to speculate (bottom picking), but if I should guess I don't think we are near the bottom, but maybe near a significant bounce as the rate of change of "the new normal" slows a bit.

 

Could be right based on stimulus package coming and the suggestion that Trump is tilting to reassessing the stay at home and social distancing suggestions in order to open businesses up. Though he did not shut down schools and businesses.

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On 3/21/2020 at 3:35 AM, explo said:

I don't try to speculate (bottom picking), but if I should guess I don't think we are near the bottom, but maybe near a significant bounce as the rate of change of "the new normal" slows a bit.

Not trying to pick a bottom, but removed my shorts and went long at about 60% this morning. Bought  into INTC MSFT and WM again. MSFT has a potential of 25% upside, INTC  a 20% upside and WM a 40% upside. None of those pushed them towards their recent past highs.. I also took a long position in UDOW and TQQ for a short term bounce based on the initial FED actions and congress along with the Global efforts to create liquidity. 

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23 hours ago, SCSolar said:

Could be right based on stimulus package coming and the suggestion that Trump is tilting to reassessing the stay at home and social distancing suggestions in order to open businesses up. Though he did not shut down schools and businesses.

Yes. The market goes through its phases (denial in equities when bonds already saw concern for example). The fear phase before was due to not seeing that this is a bell curve and we will see the light at the end of the tunnel quite quickly. First on the infection rate and then on the economy.

To know that the infection rate slowing measures do not need to be applied during the whole bell curve build up in order to flatten the curve will be a big relief. As more people have been infected the virus will naturally be slowed by increased difficulty to find new uninfected (non-immune) host chains. One immune person can break a whole chain of infections that would otherwise happen. When enough persons are immune (60%+ it becomes very difficult for the virus to spread among the non-infected). So if the infection rate bell curve is formed over months, rightly timed restrictions of the right kind might only be needed for a couple of weeks for the curve to reach ideal shape, since we don't want a too slow infection rate either. We want a balanced infection rate so that the health care system doesn't collapse and so that we reach herd immunity quickly so that the general population no longer risk passing on the virus to a big share of the risk group (which probably should remain isolated longer than the rest).

Then a second wave of fear will likely arise regarding the uncertainty about how much damages was inflicted, but for now the market is relieved that the damage will not go on for an extended period. How deep the bottom test goes and when happens is difficult to say sometimes it double dips and sometimes it is another large leg down. 

Edited by explo

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18 hours ago, SCSolar said:

Not trying to pick a bottom, but removed my shorts and went long at about 60% this morning. Bought  into INTC MSFT and WM again. MSFT has a potential of 25% upside, INTC  a 20% upside and WM a 40% upside. None of those pushed them towards their recent past highs.. I also took a long position in UDOW and TQQ for a short term bounce based on the initial FED actions and congress along with the Global efforts to create liquidity. 

Great timing of what looks like a bounce building.

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16 of 44 filled now.

filled.thumb.png.4e69dca6710b26087ef49b59fae350cf.png

Edited by explo

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Slightly Back in Black overall. We shall see how long it lasts, backed out my long the market position yesterday afternoon.holding my 2 core dividend stocks and back to 65% cash

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8 hours ago, SCSolar said:

Slightly Back in Black overall. We shall see how long it lasts, backed out my long the market position yesterday afternoon.holding my 2 core dividend stocks and back to 65% cash

Interesting. Very active allocation.

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26 minutes ago, explo said:

Interesting. Very active allocation.

Yes, I am actively managing it. As a retired person it is my full time job. My long position was in TQQQ and UDOW. My short positions I take for protection to prevent downside exposure is in SQQQ and DXD. I sold 2/3 long holdings in dividend stocks and whent about 80% cash as of late this morning when the market was up.  I put a short the market in place to cover my 20% holdings to protect  my gains when the DOW  breached 100 down.

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13 hours ago, SCSolar said:

Yes, I am actively managing it. As a retired person it is my full time job. My long position was in TQQQ and UDOW. My short positions I take for protection to prevent downside exposure is in SQQQ and DXD. I sold 2/3 long holdings in dividend stocks and whent about 80% cash as of late this morning when the market was up.  I put a short the market in place to cover my 20% holdings to protect  my gains when the DOW  breached 100 down.

Good luck. It looks like a dead cat bounce could be forming and that more than half of its potential has been exhausted by now. Multiple year growth projection revisions are starting to come in from heavy institutions (governments and their major agencies) and the come with dire short-term scenarios. It looks like it will take a couple of years before we are back on track. Back on track meaning to be where we would be at that time had this outbreak not occurred. The recovery to get back on that track will start however start quite quickly, we are talking quarters not years. Then the questions is if/when the market buys this scenario and if it focuses its asset pricing on earnings 2023- or 2020-2022.

I'm still waiting for more fills so a double bottom or just slightly deeper final bottom would suit my tactics at this time. A much deeper bottom would force me to heavy leverage management trading again (opportunistically trimming and maybe topping up my around 130 assets). Much of the beta has been eliminated from my funds basket so I should not be pulled down as deep I was during the initial crash and my beta should be in more liquid assets for better ability to do more optimal handling of asset price changes.

Right now I'm at just slightly positive return since the start of 2018.

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2 hours ago, explo said:

Good luck. It looks like a dead cat bounce could be forming and that more than half of its potential has been exhausted by now. Multiple year growth projection revisions are starting to come in from heavy institutions (governments and their major agencies) and the come with dire short-term scenarios. It looks like it will take a couple of years before we are back on track. Back on track meaning to be where we would be at that time had this outbreak not occurred. The recovery to get back on that track will start however start quite quickly, we are talking quarters not years. Then the questions is if/when the market buys this scenario and if it focuses its asset pricing on earnings 2023- or 2020-2022.

 

Pain is coming and that is why the FED has been buying up toxic assets and trying to back fill banks with liquidity. I did not realize that safe havens of say some REITS, electric companies etc were going to have cash flow shortages. I do not think the recovery starts as fast as you might think.

You have companies all across the U.S. that has laid off workers(tens of millions).  Those companies have no cash flow to pay rents or bank loans that are coming due. You have banks that gave companies lines of credits with the expectations that they would never be drawn down but were there as a business building block. Those credit lines are being asked to be filled now and the banks do not have the cash. You have people that are unable to pay the rents held by Realty Trusts. The money the Fed has offered is a paltry sum that covers the cost of food and little else. That sum of money is going to skip many people who do not quality. All those people will decide, Mortgage or Food? Electricity or Food? Gas or Food? Food or Garbage pickup, Food or Cable TV or cell phone etc. You have a large swath of companies across the spectrum that are going to suddenly not have payments coming in. The monies authorized by Congress is only about 1 months GDP. This is (and always has been) looking to be a 3-6 month problem if not longer as many companies up and close forever.

 

The cure is to shutdown everything for a long time, that is starting to be realized by those that would risk 100,000s of thousands of deaths to keep the economy going.

 

Not to sound pessimistic but I wondered why the stable Electric, Trash , phone and cable companies were dropping when gas prices and interest were at record lows.  Now it makes more sense to me as they are going to have defaults on payments to them.

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I agree it looks like a bad flush. My strategy (allocating long-term strong companies) should hopefully work well for a likely "strong getting stronger" scenario.

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On 3/25/2020 at 7:06 PM, explo said:

16 of 44 filled now.

 

26 of 55 filled now.

filled.thumb.png.0bf67abf802201010f701ba91f4378fd.png

Edited by explo

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On 4/1/2020 at 2:53 PM, explo said:

I agree it looks like a bad flush. My strategy (allocating long-term strong companies) should hopefully work well for a likely "strong getting stronger" scenario.

I blew it on my flip to my short position. I had 2 ETF purchases that I thought were my short coverings., instead I realized  at the last minute of the trading day they were longs. Not soon enough to get rid of them before close. The market plunged 400 points that day from when I bought those positions   and dropped 900 points the next morning at open. That was about a 15% swing as the were 3x market etfs. That mistake cost me 2-3% on gains for the week by having to take losses instead gains. Instead of being up 3% on the year, I am up only 0.5%.

Good news,

3 of 5 accounts are positive.

1 is up 6%(College Scholarship fund). It is back to 100% cash.

 two are up 3%. They are 80% cash for now.

The bad news 1 account which is   50% of my total assets is down 2% on the year.

One account(sons account) is down 12% for the year. It has primarily been 75% maker invested with minimal short protection.

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I can imagine that the mistake stings a bit, but for the year you have a massive outperformance by moving to the vastly superior asset class (cash) at the right time.

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5 hours ago, explo said:

I can imagine that the mistake stings a bit, but for the year you have a massive outperformance by moving to the vastly superior asset class (cash) at the right time.

It is not the first time I bought the wrong stock and it certainly won't be the last time either. If you can't take a little loss at times then you should not be in the markets. I got drubbed back in the 2010 market collapse with solar as my primary investments. I made even more back when they rebounded.

 

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