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dydo

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3 hours ago, dydo said:

Not to pry into detail, but just for the sake of appreciating the scale, what are we talking here in size of the portfolio range: 500K to 1M, 1M plus?

Thanks.

I won't give specific values. I met my target value of money and debt free for retirement and retired early.  I have gone from high risk in solars to a much more conservative and balanced approach. I still leave 10% to trade in speculative bets if I want without risking my retirement. 

 I am conservative in retirement in that I expect  50% + of the portfolio to be around after 30+ years of life expectancy to go. I hope that the returns will support my current expenditures with zero devaluation of my current stock  portfolio holdings.

No holding is less that 100 shares and currently not more than 2,000 shares. My entry into a any specific stock has never been 6 figures since retirement though some have grown into that range and re-balanced.

Last week the portfolio grew 1.1%. The overall markets were up about 2.5%. It was weird, on a few days the portfollio was down even though the market was up. This was primarily due to new entry in a few stocks that pulled back in  the REIT Utilities and the Intel drop on news. 

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21 minutes ago, SCSolar said:

I won't give specific values. I met my target value of money and debt free for retirement and retired early.  I have gone from high risk in solars to a much more conservative and balanced approach. I still leave 10% to trade in speculative bets if I want without risking my retirement. 

 I am conservative in retirement in that I expect  50% + of the portfolio to be around after 30+ years of life expectancy to go. I hope that the returns will support my current expenditures with zero devaluation of my current stock  portfolio holdings.

No holding is less that 100 shares and currently not more than 2,000 shares. My entry into a any specific stock has never been 6 figures since retirement though some have grown into that range and re-balanced.

Last week the portfolio grew 1.1%. The overall markets were up about 2.5%. It was weird, on a few days the portfollio was down even though the market was up. This was primarily due to new entry in a few stocks that pulled back in  the REIT Utilities and the Intel drop on news. 

That's fine. I am trying to comprehend the level of funds to hold 30 stocks at one given time and make it work to address objectives of income and growth. It appears to me to have an investment in ETFs to capture growth trends is a way to go as I cannot afford to hold multiple varieties of stocks to make it meaningful. 

I am looking at LIT and BOTZ to capture investing themes of growth along what I want to have as dividend-paying undervalued situations. Let's put it this way, buying 1000 shares of ALB would remove greatly ability to diversify.

Any ideas on ETFs?

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1 hour ago, dydo said:

That's fine. I am trying to comprehend the level of funds to hold 30 stocks at one given time and make it work to address objectives of income and growth. It appears to me to have an investment in ETFs to capture growth trends is a way to go as I cannot afford to hold multiple varieties of stocks to make it meaningful. 

 

ETF are a fine vehicle to create diversification.  Warren Buffet has always claimed investing in an S&P 500 index fund is the way to invest. 

Do you remember a challenge that Buffet made to a hedge fund manager a decade ago? Buffet says he is winning.

 

http://fortune.com/2017/02/25/warren-buffett-scorches-the-hedge-funds/

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9 hours ago, SCSolar said:

Warren Buffet has always claimed investing in an S&P 500 index fund is the way to invest. 

Isn't he also famous for saying that diversification are for people who don't know what they are doing? I thought I was moving away from the Buffet way in my stock picking approach by going broad with little insight into the fundamentals of each pick..

Anyway, after help from you I now have 12 stocks instead of 10. Half of them are 3 each in the Materials and Consumer sectors which are 20% and 25% respectively. The remaining six stock are thus 55% in one sector each. My Consumer stocks are all Discretionary and no Staples for now. I found that within the Materials and Consumer sectors I could find stocks with low correlation, so I guess that's why so many stocks were selected from those sectors.

Current holdings

5%: AMZN, CVX, NJR, NUE, SQM, USB

10%: BCPC, CMCSA, GILD, NKE

15%: PSA, V

stock_distributions.thumb.png.a8b84f8ab3bd6d709a47a5d3124f3571.png

ABBV got max allocation, but I decided that it is too young to assess for now.

Edited by explo

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4 hours ago, explo said:

Isn't he also famous for saying that diversification are for people who don't know what they are doing? I thought I was moving away from the Buffet way in my stock picking approach by going broad with little insight into the fundamentals of each pick..

Anyway, after help from you I now have 12 stocks instead of 10. Half of them are 3 each in the Materials and Consumer sectors which are 20% and 25% respectively. The remaining six stock are thus 55% in one sector each. My Consumer stocks are all Discretionary and no Staples for now. I found that within the Materials and Consumer sectors I could find stocks with low correlation, so I guess that's why so many stocks were selected from those sectors.

Current holdings

5%: AMZN, CVX, NJR, NUE, SQM, USB

10%: BCPC, CMCSA, GILD, NKE

15%: PSA, V

stock_distributions.thumb.png.a8b84f8ab3bd6d709a47a5d3124f3571.png

ABBV got max allocation, but I decided that it is too young to assess for now.

I believe one of Buffets core investment tenants is to invest in your core competency(i.e what you know).  That would imply investing in a narrow range of markets.

The article about the"bet"was Buffets attempt to  show how hedge funds are there to make money for the managers and not the investors. This is done by using over bloated fees.  The fact that the terms were for 10 years was to suggest that in any given  short term a fund manager may beat the market but the longer term they will not. It was his attempt to show to individual investors that do not have the time to know many markets, that their investments are better off tracking the overall markets vs. hedge fund managed accounts.

 

I initially owned Abbot Labs. I knew of  Abbot  from my days of work in the 80's and 90's. We dealt with the CPG, finance and Pharma industry as our target market. ABBV was a division of Abbot Labs for quite some time. I acquired the shares from the initial spin off of the division.  I had  added shares few years back  as one of my core sectors of holdings. This past year I took about 1/2 of my money out of ABBV.  I do  that   to lower my exposure to stocks  after  run ups.

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3 hours ago, SCSolar said:

I believe one of Buffets core investment tenants is to invest in your core competency(i.e what you know).  That would imply investing in a narrow range of markets.

The article about the"bet"was Buffets attempt to  show how hedge funds are there to make money for the managers and not the investors. This is done by using over bloated fees.  The fact that the terms were for 10 years was to suggest that in any given  short term a fund manager may beat the market but the longer term they will not. It was his attempt to show to individual investors that do not have the time to know many markets, that their investments are better off tracking the overall markets vs. hedge fund managed accounts.

I would agree with Buffet that most hedge funds don't produce the level of return a stock index does. All have high fees, but the bulk of it is high-water mark performance based, and some of them have sickening high fees. The ones I invest in have 1/20. Some have 3/30. Very few hedge funds are good so there is a lot to weed out to find good portfolio contributors.

Buffet's prediction has very high likelihood of coming true, but it does not mean hedge funds are a bad idea. A hedge fund producing decent excess return over the risk-free return will contribute in a portfolio. Let's say returns over time are 4% risk-free, 6% for hedge funds and 8% for stock index then the 2% excess from hedge funds will contribute with its low volatility and lower auto-correlation causing lower maximum drawdowns relative to its volatility than highly auto-correlated stock indices do, but the main contribution is it's low correlation to stock markets (some are by design negatively correlated to crashing markets) which offers a source of return to invest in cheap stocks during stock market crashes. It both preserves capital better and allow better growth of it by offering a correlation free rebalance of investments in the stock market (sell high, buy low). It can be viewed as an alternative to bonds or ideally a complement to a stocks/bonds balanced portfolio.

The Buffet test depends somewhat on timing. If the period is 10 years and ends at the bottom of a stock market crash the hedge funds will likely win. Over 3 or more decades the stock market will likely win even with bad timing. The 10 year return of the ^SP500TR starting February 1, 1999 was around -30% as an example.

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4 hours ago, SCSolar said:

I initially owned Abbot Labs. I knew of  Abbot  from my days of work in the 80's and 90's. We dealt with the CPG, finance and Pharma industry as our target market. ABBV was a division of Abbot Labs for quite some time. I acquired the shares from the initial spin off of the division.  I had  added shares few years back  as one of my core sectors of holdings. This past year I took about 1/2 of my money out of ABBV.  I do  that   to lower my exposure to stocks  after  run ups.

Congrats. It looks awesome, but its few listing years cause modelling errors that make it look unrealistically good to the optimization algorithm. I adjust return and volatility estimates for model error risks, but the correlations are more difficult. I'll need to solve that or simply wait for this one to mature. 

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On 1/6/2018 at 4:06 PM, SCSolar said:

ETF are a fine vehicle to create diversification.  Warren Buffet has always claimed investing in an S&P 500 index fund is the way to invest. 

Do you remember a challenge that Buffet made to a hedge fund manager a decade ago? Buffet says he is winning.

 

http://fortune.com/2017/02/25/warren-buffett-scorches-the-hedge-funds/

I like particularly two of those BOTZ and LIT. Both on the top of the trading range explaining the boom in both ideas.  What do you think of future of lithium? I like that battery makers like LG, Panasonic and Samsung are part of this  ETF. There is also BYD, which I believe WB is invested in. Another reason I like BOTZ because of the global exposure and especially to Japan. 

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Last year made 92% on JASO, EBR, ABY (extremely lucky timing with JASO and EBR)

My portfolio right now is ELP, PEGI, CSIQ. hoping for 12% including dividends this year.

The difference between NEE, SO, and DUK vs ELP on a P/B or $/MW of capacity basis is startling.

Plus for renewable enthusiasts, ELP and some other Brazilian utilities are > 90% zero emission already whereas NEE and SO and DUK are all below 40% zero emission.

And future Brazilian population growth higher than US.

NEE looks overpriced to me

Edited by BrazilUtilityBull

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On 12/29/2017 at 1:46 PM, Jetmoney said:

NEE also looks good too.  What do you think? Lower dividend but good growth.  I am thinking about moving some into some of these more stable dividend stocks like you and Explo too.  Kind of tired keeping an eye on these volatile solar stocks.

NEE is smart and gets away with political and financial murder in Florida.

Hence why NEE is crazy expensive on a P/B basis and a market cap/MW basis but not as expensive on P/E basis.

Still wouldn't think of touching NEE at a $71.3 billion market cap

Edited by BrazilUtilityBull

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On 12/29/2017 at 2:46 PM, Jetmoney said:

NEE also looks good too.  What do you think? Lower dividend but good growth.  I am thinking about moving some into some of these more stable dividend stocks like you and Explo too.  Kind of tired keeping an eye on these volatile solar stocks.

The utility stocks like NEE are certainly not volatile stocks like solar but are low growth stable income stocks. That is to say the main money comes from the dividend growth. There are certainly some higher growth stocks with dividends as well.  My dividend investing portfolio may not grow at the market like Roberts did this past year from all the trading, but I do not expect it to fall faster than the market either. I find I sleep far better at night now that I am not heavily exposed to solars.

I still dabble with the occasional buy and sell of solar manufacturers though there are fewer and fewer to invest in on the U.S. exchanges. I believe that some solars are about to reach critical mass with their volume shipments in the next few years. Once CN solar module manufacturers are running at 15GW, they should be able to pull down sizable sustained earnings with 15% GMs.  I just do not know if there will be any listed in the U.S. to invest in.

Edited by SCSolar

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the other way to capture would be the way of TAN. I do not see any other way as stated by Ravalos

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10 hours ago, dydo said:

I like particularly two of those BOTZ and LIT. Both on the top of the trading range explaining the boom in both ideas.  What do you think of future of lithium? I like that battery makers like LG, Panasonic and Samsung are part of this  ETF. There is also BYD, which I believe WB is invested in. Another reason I like BOTZ because of the global exposure and especially to Japan. 

Botz and LIT look good.  Robotics and AI will continue to have good growth in the future. Will buy some BOTZ soon.  Thanks.

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11 minutes ago, Jetmoney said:

Botz and LIT look good.  Robotics and AI will continue to have good growth in the future. Will buy some BOTZ soon.  Thanks.

The only problem with LIT is a commodity, so like any other commodity in the past would have cycles of peaks and valleys. Try SNSR and FINX I am interested as well. I like financial tech as well as Rockwell Automation and it is listed in SNSR. I would like to invest just in battery makers as I do not like miners.

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I am not paying any of the fees when buying ETF, another good news, and a flat fee on a day when I would sell no matter how many times.

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On 1/6/2018 at 4:30 PM, dydo said:

I am looking at LIT and BOTZ to capture investing themes of growth along what I want to have as dividend-paying undervalued situations.

Robotics fund for a growth market segment. Thanks, picked up a small amount.

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I added FINX and SNSR. see how trend investing comes out? I am only holding PEGI as renewable and paying dividend. mind you LIT pays distribution once a year.  

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16 hours ago, dydo said:

I like particularly two of those BOTZ and LIT. Both on the top of the trading range explaining the boom in both ideas.  What do you think of future of lithium? I like that battery makers like LG, Panasonic and Samsung are part of this  ETF. There is also BYD, which I believe WB is invested in. Another reason I like BOTZ because of the global exposure and especially to Japan. 

I am a huge fan of IRBT and robitc in general, and have been looking for a robotic fund.  I see that BOTZ has IRBT as one of their holdings. Thanks for the tip. Looks like exactly what I was looking for.

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1 hour ago, singular said:

I am a huge fan of IRBT and robitc in general, and have been looking for a robotic fund.  I see that BOTZ has IRBT as one of their holdings. Thanks for the tip. Looks like exactly what I was looking for.

glad you found it useful. LIT was up strongly ALB was upgraded to 152 or so. 

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4 hours ago, dydo said:

BOTZ is doing well

It is up 6.25% since my purchase on 1/8/18. I will be holding this for most likely a year or more as I like the market segment for future growth. This type of fund being robotics and AI  technologies traverse most every part of business in some form or another. 

Edited by SCSolar

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I just took a small position in a Marijuana ETF MJX as a play on a potentially evolving market segment. For anyone interested in the segment of investing here are some etf/funds

ari.cn, mcoa, mjna, mgw.v, hvst.v, blevf, hmlsf, mjx, hmmj.to, lare

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Added more on the FSLR dip.  And thanks, SCSolar for those symbols.  After I sell this FSLR, i'm gonna diversify my trading a bit into weed, but have been lazy in looking up relevant symbols.  

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1 hour ago, SCSolar said:

I just took a small position in a Marijuana ETF MJX as a play on a potentially evolving market segment. For anyone interested in the segment of investing here are some etf/funds

ari.cn, mcoa, mjna, mgw.v, hvst.v, blevf, hmlsf, mjx, hmmj.to, lare

thank you I took position in MJX. I am looking for diversification and this seems a good one. 

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This action makes me think today would be the day to short the SPX... feels like a broader market selloff coming tomorrow.

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1 hour ago, dydo said:

thank you I took position in MJX. I am looking for diversification and this seems a good one. 

I thought being in Canada, you might get into the Canadian etfs/funds. Canada has a favorable government policy for Marijuana where the U.S. is not pro pot.

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6 minutes ago, SCSolar said:

I thought being in Canada, you might get into the Canadian etfs/funds. Canada has a favorable government policy for Marijuana where the U.S. is not pro pot.

I hold my investments in US dollars so I am not buying CAD listings.

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