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This table represents this year, after Q4, recommendations' summary from my articles posted on SA.

Going forward, on SA, I will attach this table to every article to illustrate the change of recommendation or the outcome. 

 

Solar 2017 Picks.png

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1 hour ago, odyd said:

This table represents this year, after Q4, recommendations' summary from my articles posted on SA.

Going forward, on SA, I will attach this table to every article to illustrate the change of recommendation or the outcome. 

 

Solar 2017 Picks.png

Great calls :)

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Here are the end of quarter portfolio performance stats (updated in my profile too):

Portfolio / TAN / ^SP500TR new performance stats, 2017-03-31

  • Inception 2016-01-01
  • Return since inception 2.62% / -40.81% / 18.75%
  • CAGR 2.09% / -34.28% / 14.75%
  • Alpha -4.70% / -55.38% / 0.00%
  • Volatility 23.32% / 27.32% / 11.90%
  • Max drawdown -18.16% / -44.43% / -10.27%

1Q16-1Q17_return.thumb.PNG.2d504aac14905f4537ce989e7fc9543e.PNG

Return breakdown

  • Return = Stocks + Funds = -6.86% + 9.48% = 2.62%
  • Return = Gross Return - Expenses = 15.27% - 12.65% = 2.62%
  • Gross Return = Securities + Currencies = 10.52% + 4.75% = 15.27%
  • Expenses = Trade Commissions + Interest + Tax = 1.75% + 9.00% + 1.90% = 12.65%
  • Trade Commissions = Securities + Currencies = 1.00% + 0.75% = 1.75%

Comments

The S&P 500 is still beating the portfolio on all performance metrics (CAGR, Alpha, Volatility, Max drawdown) and the portfolio is still beating the TAN on all performance metrics. The portfolio ended a quarter with positive CAGR for the first time since inception, but the 2% CAGR is a far cry from the 25% target.

The funds are still dominating returns over the stocks, but currencies are no longer dominating returns over securities. Things are heading in the right direction, but very slowly.

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On 2017-03-09 at 10:54 AM, explo said:

I made a strategic shift in my stock holdings. I moved all CSIQ to JKS. I'm now 20/40/40 JASO/JKS/FSLR.

I made another strategic shift by moving all JASO to DQ. Timing-wise it was opportune based on how the stocks have moved past 6 months. JASO's strong EPS trend and crashing poly ASP past weeks have accelerated the shift opportunity the past month, but it might still be premature from a momentum perspective.

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Updated recommendations,

I am 30% CSIQ, 15% NEP, and rest cash as of today. At this point, I will probably wait for the Q1 unless huge move up or down on Q1. 

 

 

April17_17_Update.png

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Excellent number collection from Bond, costs are below $0.30  already in Q1 versus expectation of Q4 2017. If Chinese stocks sell on Q1, it may be last time this year.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/multi-vs-mono-part-7-process-cost-roi-comparison-xiaodong-bond-wang?trk=v-feed&lipi=urn%3Ali%3Apage%3Ad_flagship3_feed%3B0DC97UkzNHbEyKDo57NXCQ%3D%3D

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8 hours ago, odyd said:

Excellent number collection from Bond, costs are below $0.30  already in Q1 versus expectation of Q4 2017. If Chinese stocks sell on Q1, it may be last time this year.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/multi-vs-mono-part-7-process-cost-roi-comparison-xiaodong-bond-wang?trk=v-feed&lipi=urn%3Ali%3Apage%3Ad_flagship3_feed%3B0DC97UkzNHbEyKDo57NXCQ%3D%3D

Interesting list. I used to keep a similar one to understand what normalized ASP we could expect. LID is what tilts his analysis in favor of multi, but he list it as annual %. I thought LID was much lower (less than 1%) after the first year where it is high (around 3%).

The poly consumption looks low (but I haven't followed this development) and thus result in low poly and ingot cost per piece and watt despite quite high poly price. Margin in module processing seems very high which is a bit unexpected against the backdrop of CSIQ giving up its previous low risk strategy of simply tapping that and now finally making large risky capital intense wafer capacity investments. I guess the module processing cost comes directly from their source manufacturer (probably a leading one in this area). I wonder if the poly consumption also does that or it comes from a different source. 

Speculation on who the source is? GCL and/or CSIQ?

 

Edited by explo

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8 hours ago, odyd said:

I asked Gordon for a copy of his note, but he did not send it. I have something he said during Benzinga show

http://www.stockhouse.com/news/press-releases/2017/04/17/top-solar-analyst-likens-canadian-solar-to-sunpower-first-solar-from-2012

He has at least identified where their profits will come from (Japanese IPO and drop downs).

 

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I moved half of my JKS to JASO. Net effect of the 3 latest strategic moves is that I moved CSIQ to DQ.

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Thanks for update Explo, but your 6% investment allocation to solars to me means a solar no confidence vote. (And I thought I was a lightweight at just over 20%).

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2 hours ago, pg6solar said:

Thanks for update Explo, but your 6% investment allocation to solars to me means a solar no confidence vote. (And I thought I was a lightweight at just over 20%).

That's just how much I allocate to stock in genaral. My allocation to solars is 100% of my stocks.

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I have updated the prices and my positions.

Note I turned neutral on Chinese companies under current conditions. I do not know the impact and I am afraid prices will simply deteriorate. 

Below represents the conditions right now

 

2017-04-28Recs.png

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I've crunched the 20-F's of my holdings and CSIQ now. It reaffirmed my position.

CSIQ didn't look strong enough in compare to being the highest valued. However as CSIQ had a bad 2016 compared to prior years and will comeback to project sales glory in 2017 everyone else will have a tough 2017. The only question is if the profits on those project sales will disappoint.

I need something to change e.g. CSIQ to become significantly cheaper or FSLR (too heavy weight now) to become significantly more expensive for it to make sense to me to take in CSIQ again. I know there's a lot of exciting things going on with them 2017 (like guiding average 1.2b revenue per quarter Q2-Q4 as they are deleveraging BS through massive monetization), but I'm just looking at financials and relative valuation here.

 

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On 2017-04-24 at 5:56 PM, explo said:

I moved half of my JKS to JASO. Net effect of the 3 latest strategic moves is that I moved CSIQ to DQ.

Half of FSLR moved to JKS. Net effect is then moving all CSIQ to DQ and flipping allocation of FSLR and JKS from double the former to double the latter. I'm hoping to find a good opportunity to move half JKS to CSIQ in the future.

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2 hours ago, explo said:

Half of FSLR moved to JKS. Net effect is then moving all CSIQ to DQ and flipping allocation of FSLR and JKS from double the former to double the latter. I'm hoping to find a good opportunity to move half JKS to CSIQ in the future.

At what price points would you move half of JKS to CSIQ?

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Is there a reason for NYLD drop today?  I cannot find any news besides the ER yesterday.  Is the discount warranted or a good chance to initiate a position?

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14 minutes ago, Jetmoney said:

At what price points would you move half of JKS to CSIQ?

$9

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2 minutes ago, explo said:

$9

So, basically when each JKS share get about 2 shares of CSIQ?

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19 minutes ago, Jetmoney said:

So, basically when each JKS share get about 2 shares of CSIQ?

Yes but if JKS moves alone to $26 I would likely move some JKS to my other holdings instead. I need CSIQ to become cheaper relative to all my holdings to take it in.

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Is there a reason for NYLD drop today?  I cannot find any news besides the ER yesterday.  Is the discount warranted or a good chance to initiate a position?

IR cannot think of anything else.


Sent from my SM-G950W using Tapatalk

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Is the general consensus now that Q1 earnings are likely to reveal reduced margins, maybe even losses for the CN solars?

I'm thinking about opening new positions today to ride the next week up to SPWR results.  After yesterday's FSLR pop, I'm thinking sentiment is now back to positive.  But we'll see.

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On 2017-05-03 at 4:38 PM, explo said:

Half of FSLR moved to JKS. Net effect is then moving all CSIQ to DQ and flipping allocation of FSLR and JKS from double the former to double the latter. I'm hoping to find a good opportunity to move half JKS to CSIQ in the future.

As mentioned in the trading thread this flip from double FSLR to double JKS has now equalized after lucky rides on both double downs. When my broker has compiled the portfolio report tomorrow morning I expect the stocks to be ahead of the funds for the first time in a long while.

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JKS is my only solar postion.  I am sitting on a around half of the open interest of the Jan. 19'18 $18 call positons (400 contracts).  How do you trade a solar stock or option when it heats up?  Where do you get off the bus?  I sold some at $5 today (10% of holdings) which was a 200% gain. The crazy thing is $10 is certainly in the realm of possibility if the stock goes to $26. The fundamentals support much higher prices than that.   

What we all love about these stocks are the times when they get really hot.  Only one constant in my book for judging the power of potential moves up. Follow the volume.   If volume increases over the average in a meaningful way, which it has now for JKS going on 4 days, then you have a horse in the race that could make you some serious gains. I ride out the violitiliy. Can't play daily/weekly moves. Pick your price target and hold on...   GLTA

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9 hours ago, explo said:

When my broker has compiled the portfolio report tomorrow morning I expect the stocks to be ahead of the funds for the first time in a long while.

This was the case. For the first time since June 23 last year the stocks are ahead of the funds in return since the January 1 portfolio inception last year.

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17 hours ago, yomama said:

I ride out the violitiliy. Can't play daily/weekly moves. Pick your price target and hold on...  

To each his own.  I've given up trying to pick price targets, and just trade the daily/weekly volatility.  It makes me wince when I miss a big move up (as I will have sold way too early), and smile when things crater right back to where they came from (because now I have a new opportunity for another small gain).  And as someone else on this forum said recently, these stocks ALWAYS give you an opportunity to buy more at a lower price.

As you say, GLTA!

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On 2017-05-25 at 11:23 PM, explo said:

As mentioned in the trading thread this flip from double FSLR to double JKS has now equalized after lucky rides on both double downs. When my broker has compiled the portfolio report tomorrow morning I expect the stocks to be ahead of the funds for the first time in a long while.

As mentioned in the trading thread some FSLR was moved to DQ to split the move from JKS equally to FSLR and DQ. Current allocation: JKS/JASO/DQ/FSLR 30/20/25/25.

 

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FSLR making a nice move on new tariff rumors. It's really been volatile lately. Slapping tariffs on everything imported could really shake things up for those who want to supply and build in US. 

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4 minutes ago, Pop2mollys said:

FSLR making a nice move on new tariff rumors. It's really been volatile lately. Slapping tariffs on everything imported could really shake things up for those who want to supply and build in US. 

Yes. Strangely it did not make its big run when Suniva filed the petition but when they reported Q1. After the ITC decision to move forward with the investigation they gained a little but lost some end of last week. Tariffs will likely have positive effect on US imports this year and negative if/when they take effect next year and FSLR is ramping down capacity right now, so I'll just allocate my picks uniformly and trade the disoriented herd this year.

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