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Event update. I will update more frequently now to keep track of whether TAN is clearly diverging from market.

 

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Man.. going full blown diversified is .. tedious. I'm analysing the properties of 250 stocks now after vetting maybe 1000. After that I have to optimize the allocation weights of these 250 stocks. The portfolio is getting a bit quanty.

 

Edited by explo

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On ‎6‎/‎12‎/‎2018 at 10:57 AM, explo said:

I'm analysing the properties of 250 stocks now

I'm starting to get my sheet together.

I think I need to buy a more powerful PC again.

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9 hours ago, explo said:

I'm starting to get my sheet together.

I think I need to buy a more powerful PC again.

Get your sheet together man!  You could use hadoop or the cloud?

Edited by sunnypease

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48 minutes ago, sunnypease said:

Get your sheet together man!  You could use hadoop or the cloud?

Yeah, the data is getting a bit big. Borderline that I need to manage it like that.

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On 6/7/2018 at 11:36 AM, explo said:

Event update. I will update more frequently now to keep track of whether TAN is clearly diverging from market.

 

return.png

So far the TAN is undecided. Without knowing anything about TA it looks like it’s at the cross roads to confirm a small double top peak before a crash or that it has entered a period of horisontal churn. Unfortunately solars are prone to fly and crash but some horisontal churning before can confirmation happen. Normally the churning does not precede a continued direction but a direction change. Cyclical style.

Note that TAN is broad solar, so inverter makers, manufacturing equipment makers and project developers are all included, not just panel makers. Manufacturing equipment makers usually take the biggest revenue hit earliest.

This is the solar index that TAN invests in: http://www.macsolarindex.com/

On yahoo the data is still better for the TAN etf than the ^SUNIDX index.

https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/TAN#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

 

Edited by explo

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On ‎6‎/‎12‎/‎2018 at 10:57 AM, explo said:

Man.. going full blown diversified is .. tedious. I'm analysing the properties of 250 stocks now after vetting maybe 1000. After that I have to optimize the allocation weights of these 250 stocks. The portfolio is getting a bit quanty.

 

I've gotten to the execution phase after a similar even more tedious process for funds. The asset allocation is now finalized and I bought over 100 different stocks on NYSE and Nasdaq today. There is no turning back from this. My stock basket is now finished. The funds are next - 70 of them have been allocated. Some of them will have delayed transactions.

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2 hours ago, explo said:

I've gotten to the execution phase after a similar even more tedious process for funds. The asset allocation is now finalized and I bought over 100 different stocks on NYSE and Nasdaq today. There is no turning back from this. My stock basket is now finished. The funds are next - 70 of them have been allocated. Some of them will have delayed transactions.

This sounds like an one-man EXPLO mutual fund.  How do you find time and energy to go through them all?  Are you starting taking clients?😀  Good luck!

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9 hours ago, Jetmoney said:

This sounds like an one-man EXPLO mutual fund.  How do you find time and energy to go through them all?  Are you starting taking clients?😀  Good luck!

Yes. It feels more like a one-man fund than a portfolio now with the very long list of assets. It has taken a lot of time and energy this year, but the idea is that after initial allocation the management should not be to much effort (it would be very effortless without the scale of assets). Even the initial effort only analyzed histoical assets returns, not their fundmentals. The analyzis is quite automated and the opimization based on the analysis is semi-automated once all the data to analyze has been prepared and all the analysis components designed and implemented. It will need many years to conclude if successful or not, but the  result data that I’ve gathered since start of 2016 (when I began balancing work) might change with this much higher degree of diversification.

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13 hours ago, Jetmoney said:

Are you starting taking clients?

I imagine that's a much larger (legal) threshold to climb. It sure seems like easy money to raise a billion investment for a fund and take 2% of it every year and 20% of its return above index. There must be some effort to it. I'll be happy with my own wealth growth if the strategy works. Then there's no need for a chunk of others.

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On ‎6‎/‎25‎/‎2018 at 9:24 AM, explo said:

So far the TAN is undecided. Without knowing anything about TA it looks like it’s at the cross roads to confirm a small double top peak before a crash or that it has entered a period of horisontal churn. Unfortunately solars are prone to fly and crash but some horisontal churning before can confirmation happen. Normally the churning does not precede a continued direction but a direction change. Cyclical style.

Note that TAN is broad solar, so inverter makers, manufacturing equipment makers and project developers are all included, not just panel makers. Manufacturing equipment makers usually take the biggest revenue hit earliest.

This is the solar index that TAN invests in: http://www.macsolarindex.com/

On yahoo the data is still better for the TAN etf than the ^SUNIDX index.

The TAN divergence became a bit more confirmed this week:

return.thumb.png.cca6e490c0935dd1ab57d398e3af4379.png

Edited by explo

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On ‎8‎/‎2‎/‎2018 at 11:45 PM, explo said:

I've gotten to the execution phase after a similar even more tedious process for funds. The asset allocation is now finalized and I bought over 100 different stocks on NYSE and Nasdaq today. There is no turning back from this. My stock basket is now finished. The funds are next - 70 of them have been allocated. Some of them will have delayed transactions.

Seeing clearly how massive diversification alters the portfolio properties I've restarted the portfolio with its inception being August 1 2018 (previous inception was January 1 2016). There are still some incomplete fund transactions. The major one is sale of a previously over allocated very volatile CTA fund. It will be sold next month. If it can behave until then (not influence the fund basket volatility too much) the inception point will hold in terms of correctly reflecting the start of the new massive diversification strategy.

I can't believe it took me 20 years of investing to learn what everyone was teaching - risk diversification is the free lunch of investing and it is stupid to not exploit it. Success yet to be proven..

return.thumb.png.65c9794f98cab97157c8699a9eea0bae.png

 

Edited by explo

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