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dydo

Trading Strategy

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explo    669
On 2017-07-09 at 6:29 PM, explo said:

I've crunched the numbers further in order to try to find a way to compare valuations between the companies. I need to take in NYLD as that looks like the best yieldco option for me. Partly related to my broker requiring much less margin on that stock than on PEGI. At first I thought I would replace high risk DQ with it (DWS reducing poly consumption, massive other projects in Xinjiang, pending FiT cliff), but decided to replace PEGI instead. So I will go with JKS/DQ/FSLR/NYLD/NEE 20/20/20/20/20 to keep the segment diversification intact.

I've made a change again. Looking at NEE chart it has all the traits of a blue chip. Its risk reward alone as a single stock beats the index (so far on the charts). I then got inspired to construct a new portfolio asset class of blue chip stocks to see if that could contribute to total expected risk adjusted return of the portfolio. In the search for blue chips I that found that none could match utilities (maybe I did not search enough). Not resilient health care giants nor boring retail could beat them in risk profile. Looking at Southern Company (SO) it is an absolutely amazing stock and together with NEE it has great combined historical risk adjusted return performance. Finally I decided to scrap the new asset class and let these dividend paying energy blue chips replace yieldcos and offer true downstream exposure with generation, transmission and distribution business, not just the first one. I guess I've added some more base load in my portfolio. It could help trading the intermittent ones. :)

I know that they are challenged by the energy revolution, but it can also be great growth opportunities for them with the right strategy and timely execution.

New allocation in ascending risk order: SO/NEE/FSLR/JKS/DQ 20/20/20/20/20

Prior to buying SO I made a valuation analysis concluding it to be significantly lagging now, thus it got higher adjusted allocation effectively causing profit taking in FSLR, JKS and DQ.

 

New diversification profile

 

Mega cap 0%

Large cap 40%

Mid cap 20%

Small cap 20%

Micro cap 20%

Nano cap 0%

 

US based 60%

China based 40%

 

Energy 100%

  - Solar 60%

  - Mixed 40%

Other sectors 0%

 

Dividend paying 40%

No dividend 60%

 

Downstream 40%

Midstream 40%

Upstream 20%

 

c-Si technology risk 40%

CdTe technology risk 20%

Electricity price and cost of capital risk 40%

 

Polysilicon buyers 20%

Polysilicon sellers 20%

Polysilicon independent 60%

 

Inflated BS 80%

Deflated BS 20%

Edited by explo

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explo    669
13 hours ago, explo said:

This was printed on Monday. As of yesterday the current drawdown has lasted 145 days.

The portfolio and the funds component were printing their 146th drawdown day yesterday. Continuously new record for the portfolio while the existing record for the funds is 163 days which I expect to be broken 2-3 weeks from now.

Maybe more interesting the stocks component printed a new all time high yesterday and thus came out of a 498 days long drawdown which of course is a the new record (the portfolio is just a few months older than that). I hope it will stand a while. It will for at least 498 days now.

Edited by explo

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explo    669
On 2017-07-19 at 8:47 PM, explo said:

New allocation in ascending risk order: SO/NEE/FSLR/JKS/DQ 20/20/20/20/20

Oops I did it again. I went and made my broker happy.

New allocation in ascending risk order: SO/NEE/ECL/FSLR/JKS 20/20/20/20/20

After a recent thirst for blue chip stocks with sector exposure I replaced DQ with ECL. It has amazing ROE and by my valuation formula could be priced much higher. Thus it got a massive adjusted allocation of around 45%.

The thirst for blue chips might be related to a desire to pocket sector profits. Adjusted allocation to solar manufacturers is now down to just 20% of my stocks and 4.5% of portfolio NAV.

 

New diversification profile

 

Mega cap 0%

Large cap 60%

Mid cap 20%

Small cap 20%

Micro cap 0%

Nano cap 0%

 

US based 80%

China based 20%

 

Energy 80%

  - Solar 40%

  - Mixed 40%

Water 20%

 

Dividend paying 60%

No dividend 40%

 

Downstream 60%

Midstream 40%

Upstream 0%

 

c-Si technology risk 20%

CdTe technology risk 20%

Electricity price and cost of capital risk 40%

Clean water demand risk 20%

 

Polysilicon buyers 20%

Polysilicon sellers 0%

Polysilicon independent 80%

 

Inflated BS 80%

Deflated BS 20%

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dydo    1,391

I have diversified my cash to ALB today, sold off on great results. this is my lithium battery element of the portfolio,  the raw material that is.

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explo    669
9 hours ago, dydo said:

I have diversified my cash to ALB today, sold off on great results. this is my lithium battery element of the portfolio,  the raw material that is.

Great stock. I'll buy it.

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dydo    1,391
53 minutes ago, explo said:

Great stock. I'll buy it.

I do not have it already, I got stopped. I think it is a good one, but so much volatility. 

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