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On 4/24/2018 at 6:13 AM, Mark said:

Kinda hate the earnings reactions to a lot of these great reports from companies that have reported so far.  Looking like this was all priced in.  Considering reducing my FSLR hand before Thursday.  All the recent analyst price target raises on FSLR also give me concern (in the near term). Whenever they pump, it's almost always time to dump.  Anyone else playing FSLR earnings?  I was feeling like the 80s were going to happen Friday/next week, but seeing how the market is responding to other earnings, not so sure.  May cut my exposure in half before the report.  Anyone else?

Is FSLR earning report out after close today (8 minutes from now)?  Anyone think it will surprise to the upside?

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Got my pop to the 80s afterall, so its dinner out tonight for the fam.  Have a good weekend, all.

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Does anyone here use the Balance of Power (BOP) indicator?  I started learning about it this week, kinda confused on a couple of points.  If there's someone here who has been using it regularly, lemme know and I've got a question or two for ya.

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I've made some strategy changes to my portfolio. Basically I let diversity and stability precede balance even more now. This is enforced through a simplified allocation frame:

10 stocks á 3% and 7 funds á 10%

Balance for optimal estimated risk-adjusted return is now achieved solely by picking since no weighting flexibility is allowed. By avoiding single asset concentration both the risk of overweighting an incorrectly estimated low future return and the risk of basing picks too much on incorrectly estimated correlations to an over weighted asset are avoided.

My profile page has been updated. My stock picks are shown to the left now.

Edited by explo

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On 5/4/2018 at 12:59 PM, explo said:

I've made some strategy changes to my portfolio. Basically I let diversity and stability precede balance even more now. This is enforced through a simplified allocation frame:

10 stocks á 3% and 7 funds á 10%

 

Is BCPC still one of your 10 holdings? The stock has had a great run since the bottom in February. It has gained more than 33%. It looks like it is trading at more than 30 as a 2019 forward PE now. That seems a bit pricey if not for the long term trend lines.

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2 hours ago, SCSolar said:

Is BCPC still one of your 10 holdings? The stock has had a great run since the bottom in February. It has gained more than 33%. It looks like it is trading at more than 30 as a 2019 forward PE now. That seems a bit pricey if not for the long term trend lines.

It is. It has always been max allocated since I first bought it due to it's consistent strong return. I'm going for a more flat allocation now and I think I'm going to reduce the total stocks share of the portfolio too. So that means I will indirectly take some profit on it. With double allocation and half appreciation it's made about the same as my AMZN had before I sold it (for the first time) a few days ago (will buy it back though).

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Been accumulating DQ for a run above 55.  Something's gonna give there really soon.  

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47 minutes ago, Mark said:

Been accumulating DQ for a run above 55.  Something's gonna give there really soon.  

Agreed.  Have quite a bit of it myself.  With $3/share/quarter as far as the eye can see, this thing is way undervalued.

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19 hours ago, solarpete said:

Agreed.  Have quite a bit of it myself.  With $3/share/quarter as far as the eye can see, this thing is way undervalued.

Yeah, coiled up like a nasty snake on the chart.  But since we all think is should explode to 60+, you know what that means.  :)  Nah, not this time.  I don't have a lot, only 500 shares.  I'm back overweight FSLR again, though looking to take some profits today.  I'll be trading FSLR pretty perpetually over the next 2-3 years and will trade DQ, but nowhere near as much $$$.  Best of luck on the $55 break.

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On ‎5‎/‎4‎/‎2018 at 6:59 PM, explo said:

10 stocks á 3% and 7 funds á 10%

I changed this to 20 stock á 1.25% and 10 funds with flexible allocation. The capital allocation limits were eliminated by adding maximum risk diversification to the optimization criterion (maximum return per risk). Stock holdings and other charts on my profile page have been updated.

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On 5/10/2018 at 2:01 PM, solarpete said:

Agreed.  Have quite a bit of it myself.  With $3/share/quarter as far as the eye can see, this thing is way undervalued.

Congrats, pete.

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Sold all my DQ at 61.75.  If it takes a quick 2-4% DQ-style dip in the morning, I'll be back in looking to scalp a few more %

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5 minutes ago, Mark said:

Sold all my DQ at 61.75.  If it takes a quick 2-4% DQ-style dip in the morning, I'll be back in looking to scalp a few more %

Good job!  Great call.

CSIQ earning will come out May 16 before market opens.  I might want to add some more tomorrow, in case they announce buyout.  What do you think?

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16 hours ago, Jetmoney said:

Good job!  Great call.

CSIQ earning will come out May 16 before market opens.  I might want to add some more tomorrow, in case they announce buyout.  What do you think?

I think the buyout is still a few quarters away.  Maybe Q1?  I hope to be wrong and its sooner, I'd like my money back.

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3 hours ago, Mark said:

I think the buyout is still a few quarters away.  Maybe Q1?  I hope to be wrong and its sooner, I'd like my money back.

Annual meeting is on June 27/2018. Don't you think it would be wise for them to finalize negotiation by the end of May-2018, before sending out voting ballots? Shareholders are angry with CEO and BOD (for capping the stock with this ridiculous price offer 18.47), they (shareholders) may vote them all out of their current positions to introduce someone from institutional holders... Also look at Japanese yealdco... Price moved UP to 106,000 level... So, my bet is end of May for decision to be announced.

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1 minute ago, MVA said:

Annual meeting is on June 27/2018. Don't you think it would be wise for them to finalize negotiation by the end of May-2018, before sending out voting ballots? Shareholders are angry with CEO and BOD (for capping the stock with this ridiculous price offer 18.47), they (shareholders) may vote them all out of their current positions to introduce someone from institutional holders... Also look at Japanese yealdco... Price moved UP to 106,000 level... So, my bet is end of May for decision to be announced.

I'd give that a 5% chance.  I do hope that happens and understand your logic.  I just think we're still a ways off.  This won't be a JASO, but probably will be a Trina.

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And by the way, I'd encourage any shareholders here to email Investor Relations with your current comments on the price.  I just emailed again last week (my first time in a couple months) suggesting that the price is too low.  I mean if Jinko is trading at the same price as the CSIQ buyout and they have NO assets/projects to speak of, then CSIQ should be worth quite a bit more by comparison.  Email investor relations, anyone with skin in this stupid game.

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5 minutes ago, Mark said:

I'd give that a 5% chance.  I do hope that happens and understand your logic.  I just think we're still a ways off.  This won't be a JASO, but probably will be a Trina.

It took Trina about 7 month to decide. Dec 24/2015 non-binding offer form CEO was presented and July 30/2016 - final definitive agreement was signed. In case of CSIQ - Dec 09/2017 offer was presented to BOD and today is already 6 month...

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2 minutes ago, Mark said:

And by the way, I'd encourage any shareholders here to email Investor Relations with your current comments on the price.  I just emailed again last week (my first time in a couple months) suggesting that the price is too low.  I mean if Jinko is trading at the same price as the CSIQ buyout and they have NO assets/projects to speak of, then CSIQ should be worth quite a bit more by comparison.  Email investor relations, anyone with skin in this stupid game.

Agreed. I actually send my letter directly to Qu (tru Investor PR rep) they promised me it will be given to him... 😕

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I hope you're right.  I'm tired of holding all these shares, but not about to dump them here.  Right now they're only coming in useful as collateral for my margin.  I've been able to easily negate the margin interest with FSLR and DQ success, but hell, that could be profit instead of going back to pay the bank interest while Qu holds my shares hostage at a super cheap price to a super cheap buyout price.  $16.85 right now?  The dude straight stiffed us.  My guess is we'd be trading in the low 20s right now, talking about high 20s on earnings/monetization of assets.

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BTW, here was my response from IR.  Nothing new here, but perhaps a bit interesting the focus put on non-binding and other parties being open to make offers?  Maybe reading into it too much.

 

Thank you for taking the time to send your thoughts on.
I know you have been a long term holder.
With regard to the offer, it is a non-binding offer. The Board is
conducting an independent valuation with its financial and legal
advisers and will then make a recommendation to shareholders.
In the interim, since it is a non-binding offer, any other party is free to make
its own offer to acquire Canadian Solar.  Any such offers would be
evaluated as the current one is being by the Board.

Best regards, David

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4 hours ago, Mark said:

BTW, here was my response from IR.  Nothing new here, but perhaps a bit interesting the focus put on non-binding and other parties being open to make offers?  Maybe reading into it too much.

 

Thank you for taking the time to send your thoughts on.
I know you have been a long term holder.
With regard to the offer, it is a non-binding offer. The Board is
conducting an independent valuation with its financial and legal
advisers and will then make a recommendation to shareholders.
In the interim, since it is a non-binding offer, any other party is free to make
its own offer to acquire Canadian Solar.  Any such offers would be
evaluated as the current one is being by the Board.

Best regards, David

The response seems to say that their offer price is good (good premium to the current price).  If anyone thinks this offer is low, they are welcome to present a better offer.  Quit complaining.  That is what it sounds to me and does not sound good.  I will take the offer price now and move on.

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On 5/14/2018 at 1:16 PM, Mark said:

Sold all my DQ at 61.75.  If it takes a quick 2-4% DQ-style dip in the morning, I'll be back in looking to scalp a few more %

DQ is on fire today, up 13%.  I hope you bought back after it dropped a little after you sold it.

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On ‎5‎/‎13‎/‎2018 at 11:05 PM, explo said:

I changed this to 20 stock á 1.25% and 10 funds with flexible allocation. The capital allocation limits were eliminated by adding maximum risk diversification to the optimization criterion (maximum return per risk). Stock holdings and other charts on my profile page have been updated.

My quest for diversification has come to an end. The effort took me to 30 stocks across 10 sectors and 14 funds across 6 strategies. No single asset (stock or fund) allocates more than 5% of any of total capital, total return or total risk. My profile page has been updated with the new allocation and it is attached below too.

allocation.thumb.png.c7e64a44ef8c9056a55169dd7c4dd4a6.png

The risks in the allocation chart are expressed as volatility relative to stock market volatility. The volatility sum of the three zero correlated risk components (stock picking, stock market and fund picking) of the portfolio is 19% + 27% + 21% = 67%. With the 3x leverage that the portfolio is geared at this equals twice the stock market volatility. But since the three volatilities are zero correlated the portfolio volatility only equals the square root of the individual variances (all covariances are zero) which is (19%^2 + 27%^2 + 21%^2)^0.5 = 39% or slightly below 1.2 times the stock market volatility at the 3x leverage.

The slightly higher 3x leveraged portfolio volatility than the stock market does not translate to deeper or longer drawdowns. For one the volatility is around a higher average return (more than double that of the stock market) due to the high leverage. Another reason is that the return distribution should be much more normal than that of the stock market. Drawdowns of monthly returns that are 4 standard deviations larger than the average annual return, which the stock market experiences every now and then with its high auto-correlation of negative returns during market crashes, are not expected to happen more than one time per millennium for a normal distribution. One direct tool to avoid this is the allocation of CTA funds. This is automatically done by the mean-variance optimization due to the attractive covariance these funds have with the stock market. These funds make a lot of positive returns during periods of high auto-correlation in markets and when the mother of auto-correlations happens - the stock market crash - these funds negate the large negative deviations of the stock market returns with large positive deviations from their average returns, effectively preventing a stock market crash to cause too much auto-correlation of negative returns for the portfolio.

The purpose of the high level of diversification is to make sure that the expected return and risk of the portfolio do not rely too much on the accuracy of the estimates of return, volatility and correlations of any single asset. Higher diversification also means that no single asset can influence the allocation optimization of the rest of the portfolio too much based on its estimated correlations. Some freedom in the balance optimization to maximize the estimated risk-adjusted return is given up in order to reduce the estimation error.

Edited by explo

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