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dydo

Trading Strategy

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I have completed my Q1 allocation. My portfolio consists of 10 stocks with equal weight.  The yield is 6.01%

ABBV, T, BRX, GPT, LSI, PEGI, VTR, WPC, DLR, SPG.

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On 3/30/2018 at 3:33 AM, explo said:

It has gotten to the point that I am just trading the market using QQQ and QID. I am not really really buying stocks. If there is a 300-400 point swing one way or the other, sell and go the opposite. 

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I am still smoothing out the 10 stock set. This morning I flipped T for MRK and SPG for CCI. 

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1 hour ago, Mark said:

All loaded up on FSLR now and will await the 80s.  

Good job picking up a winner so far.  I am just afraid that it is a bit lofty.  But, if you think it is a great company, it might get there when/if market rebounces.  Good luck.

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20 hours ago, Jetmoney said:

Good job picking up a winner so far.  I am just afraid that it is a bit lofty.  But, if you think it is a great company, it might get there when/if market rebounces.  Good luck.

On a P/E basis, its lofty.  But I'm looking at this as an earnings play.  Q1 earnings will be lousy, they already told us that.  But on the call, I'm thinking they'll have greater vision on the margin expansion moving into 2019 and it'll pop on future earnings growth.

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Bought some DQ (very small amount) at 53.83, looking to just snag a couple bucks.

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1 hour ago, Mark said:

Bought some DQ (very small amount) at 53.83, looking to just snag a couple bucks.

Ok. I also just nibbled a little at $53. 

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21 hours ago, Jetmoney said:

Ok. I also just nibbled a little at $53. 

Missed my sell spot.  Hopefully they're soon done dumping all those new shares on a market that doesn't seem terribly interested in absorbing them.  The Chinese ATM.

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On 3/26/2016 at 7:56 AM, explo said:

I've calculated the individual return, max drawdown and volatility from the individual stocks asset class and the combined (stock funds and hedge funds together) funds asset classes to see if one of the classes is inferior in its risk adjusted return contribution to the portfolio.

Note that the funds asset classes have 11.5 times higher allocation than the individual stocks, so equal return, max drawdown and volatility performance would mean that the funds contribute 11.5 times more of that to the portfolio than the individual stocks do. If my picks and trading are successful maybe the individual stocks can perform better than the funds.

Note that the individual risk contributions cannot just be summed up or multiplied. The combo is supposed to have better risk properties (from diversification effect) than the sum of parts. For the return the combo equals the parts multiplied.

The strategy description post above has been updated to show these individual contributions.

Just found that my low ball bid of $50.35 was executed.  Just sold all for some profit.

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36 minutes ago, Jetmoney said:

Just found that my low ball bid of $50.35 was executed.  Just sold all for some profit.

Congrats!  I'm gonna add if we crack 52.50 and look to dump at the close.

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19 minutes ago, Mark said:

Congrats!  I'm gonna add if we crack 52.50 and look to dump at the close.

Good luck.  DQ is so volatile.  It can go back to $60 in no time, but also can come down to $46.  I don't know which way it will go.  One has to be nimble.

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On 4/13/2018 at 10:48 AM, Jetmoney said:

Good luck.  DQ is so volatile.  It can go back to $60 in no time, but also can come down to $46.  I don't know which way it will go.  One has to be nimble.

I was looking at it today for some time but decided to buy ALB and CELG instead of DQ.   I am having a hard time holding to REITs, I guess I am more of growth investor than dividend one. I had made nice with MRK, kind sorry I sold it.

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9 hours ago, dydo said:

I am having a hard time holding to REITs, I guess I am more of growth investor than dividend one

I find the mix great. Some 0% dividend stocks, some 1-3% and some 3%+ ones. The first category is the action stocks, biotech, information tech etc., the mid part could be mature but growing consumption, pharmaceutical, raw materials companies, financial companies and the last part REITs and utilities. Note that within each category of yield vs growth there are different PPS volatility profiles. A raw materials company might have a very cyclic PPS despite decent yield. Pharmaceutical might have very market insulated PPS behaviour. Utilities have extremely low PPS volatility.

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Waiting for DQ to crack 52.50 and hold, then I'll add to my position, ride to 55 and sell.

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5 hours ago, Mark said:

Waiting for DQ to crack 52.50 and hold, then I'll add to my position, ride to 55 and sell.

How do you determine the "hold" part?  It went past $52.5 a few times today.  Did you add?  Good luck either way.

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18 hours ago, Jetmoney said:

How do you determine the "hold" part?  It went past $52.5 a few times today.  Did you add?  Good luck either way.

I didn't add yet.  I was actually dealing with my kids during the first lift to 53, so I missed that, but  I wouldn't have bought there anyway as the MACD and RSI weren't looking too promising.  I would imagine I'll add this morning though, as I feel pretty good about this heading back toward 55 from here.  VERY small position though.  I'm all in on FSLR at the moment.

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37 minutes ago, Mark said:

I didn't add yet.  I was actually dealing with my kids during the first lift to 53, so I missed that, but  I wouldn't have bought there anyway as the MACD and RSI weren't looking too promising.  I would imagine I'll add this morning though, as I feel pretty good about this heading back toward 55 from here.  VERY small position though.  I'm all in on FSLR at the moment.

Fslr rockets this morning.  Any news out besides spwr buying SolarWorld?  Spwr is also up a lot.  I don’t understand the logic for this stock move.

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22 minutes ago, Jetmoney said:

Fslr rockets this morning.  Any news out besides spwr buying SolarWorld?

The FSLR message board on Yahoo says there's a Bank of America upgrade out, with a new target of $83.

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Ok, got my last bit of DQ here... I can't confess the same confidence that i had in FSLR, but do think we'll get back to 55 soon.

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2 hours ago, Mark said:

Ok, got my last bit of DQ here... I can't confess the same confidence that i had in FSLR, but do think we'll get back to 55 soon.

Great job!  I just saw dq almost touched $55, missing by a penny.  Great read.

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Thanks.  Yeah, they must be reading the board and knew to pull up a penny short to keep me around.  I think there's more room to run anyway looking at those higher volume buys, so kinda glad my order didn't execute.  (Famous last words).  

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I often find round numbers can act as resistance, with the price pulling up just short before pulling back.  I usually set my sell price at x dollars 98 cents, not y dollars even.

Just an idea....

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8 minutes ago, solarpete said:

I often find round numbers can act as resistance, with the price pulling up just short before pulling back.  I usually set my sell price at x dollars 98 cents, not y dollars even.

Just an idea....

I share the same strategy.  When selling, I set it at xx.98.  When buying, I set it at xx.02, or xx.52, etc...

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Kinda hate the earnings reactions to a lot of these great reports from companies that have reported so far.  Looking like this was all priced in.  Considering reducing my FSLR hand before Thursday.  All the recent analyst price target raises on FSLR also give me concern (in the near term). Whenever they pump, it's almost always time to dump.  Anyone else playing FSLR earnings?  I was feeling like the 80s were going to happen Friday/next week, but seeing how the market is responding to other earnings, not so sure.  May cut my exposure in half before the report.  Anyone else?

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I sold my small FSLR (trading) stake on this last pop, and I do not plan to enter another position until after earnings.  They lost money last quarter.  Yes, that was a temporary circumstance, but it's going to take time to really get the profitability train running again.  While I don't expect another loss, I also expect just small positive earnings this quarter, on the order of 10-20 cents (the consensus estimate shown on Yahoo Finance is breakeven).  $80/share is pretty rich for that kind of performance.  So I expect a drop, not a pop, in share price after earnings.  If the drop is significant, I may buy another trading position then.

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1 hour ago, solarpete said:

I sold my small FSLR (trading) stake on this last pop, and I do not plan to enter another position until after earnings.  They lost money last quarter.  Yes, that was a temporary circumstance, but it's going to take time to really get the profitability train running again.  While I don't expect another loss, I also expect just small positive earnings this quarter, on the order of 10-20 cents (the consensus estimate shown on Yahoo Finance is breakeven).  $80/share is pretty rich for that kind of performance.  So I expect a drop, not a pop, in share price after earnings.  If the drop is significant, I may buy another trading position then.

Thanks.  I was actually thinking that they'll lose a few cents this quarter as well and return to profitability next quarter.  But what I'm thinking is forward guidance may be raised a bit now that Series 6 is rolling.  I think they'll be able to provide a bit more clarity on margin expansion into 2019.  And given the market is forward-looking, therein comes my feeling that we would see the low 80s on Friday, even if it doesn't hold and sell back down to 68.  But with the reactions from the other companies being so poor, all the hype about the 10 year @ 3 and geopolitical/trade stuff, I dunno that'll be enough given there's gonna be plenty of time to buy this in the months to come as things come into even clearer view.  Outside of some big news that none of us know about, seems harder right now to justify why there'd be buying pressure on a beat and raise.  Except for good old market manipulation.  

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The one thing that has me worried just a teeny bit is that there are no signs yet of Series 6 product certification. Specifically no UL listing yet. And I figure it should be in place by now if they want to start selling the product this quarter. You know wham sayn?

P.D. here's the link to the UL listings of FSLR:
http://database.ul.com/cgi-bin/XYV/template/LISEXT/1FRAME/showpage.html?name=QIGU.E205874&ccnshorttitle=Photovoltaic+Modules+and+Panels&objid=1075378718&cfgid=1073741824&version=versionless&parent_id=1073991981&sequence=1

Edited by Klothilde
because I can

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