Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
dydo

Trading Strategy

Recommended Posts

This table represents this year, after Q4, recommendations' summary from my articles posted on SA.

Going forward, on SA, I will attach this table to every article to illustrate the change of recommendation or the outcome. 

 

Solar 2017 Picks.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, odyd said:

This table represents this year, after Q4, recommendations' summary from my articles posted on SA.

Going forward, on SA, I will attach this table to every article to illustrate the change of recommendation or the outcome. 

 

Solar 2017 Picks.png

Great calls :)

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thank you Explo,

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here are the end of quarter portfolio performance stats (updated in my profile too):

Portfolio / TAN / ^SP500TR new performance stats, 2017-03-31

  • Inception 2016-01-01
  • Return since inception 2.62% / -40.81% / 18.75%
  • CAGR 2.09% / -34.28% / 14.75%
  • Alpha -4.70% / -55.38% / 0.00%
  • Volatility 23.32% / 27.32% / 11.90%
  • Max drawdown -18.16% / -44.43% / -10.27%

1Q16-1Q17_return.thumb.PNG.2d504aac14905f4537ce989e7fc9543e.PNG

Return breakdown

  • Return = Stocks + Funds = -6.86% + 9.48% = 2.62%
  • Return = Gross Return - Expenses = 15.27% - 12.65% = 2.62%
  • Gross Return = Securities + Currencies = 10.52% + 4.75% = 15.27%
  • Expenses = Trade Commissions + Interest + Tax = 1.75% + 9.00% + 1.90% = 12.65%
  • Trade Commissions = Securities + Currencies = 1.00% + 0.75% = 1.75%

Comments

The S&P 500 is still beating the portfolio on all performance metrics (CAGR, Alpha, Volatility, Max drawdown) and the portfolio is still beating the TAN on all performance metrics. The portfolio ended a quarter with positive CAGR for the first time since inception, but the 2% CAGR is a far cry from the 25% target.

The funds are still dominating returns over the stocks, but currencies are no longer dominating returns over securities. Things are heading in the right direction, but very slowly.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2017-03-09 at 10:54 AM, explo said:

I made a strategic shift in my stock holdings. I moved all CSIQ to JKS. I'm now 20/40/40 JASO/JKS/FSLR.

I made another strategic shift by moving all JASO to DQ. Timing-wise it was opportune based on how the stocks have moved past 6 months. JASO's strong EPS trend and crashing poly ASP past weeks have accelerated the shift opportunity the past month, but it might still be premature from a momentum perspective.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Updated recommendations,

I am 30% CSIQ, 15% NEP, and rest cash as of today. At this point, I will probably wait for the Q1 unless huge move up or down on Q1. 

 

 

April17_17_Update.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Excellent number collection from Bond, costs are below $0.30  already in Q1 versus expectation of Q4 2017. If Chinese stocks sell on Q1, it may be last time this year.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/multi-vs-mono-part-7-process-cost-roi-comparison-xiaodong-bond-wang?trk=v-feed&lipi=urn%3Ali%3Apage%3Ad_flagship3_feed%3B0DC97UkzNHbEyKDo57NXCQ%3D%3D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, odyd said:

Excellent number collection from Bond, costs are below $0.30  already in Q1 versus expectation of Q4 2017. If Chinese stocks sell on Q1, it may be last time this year.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/multi-vs-mono-part-7-process-cost-roi-comparison-xiaodong-bond-wang?trk=v-feed&lipi=urn%3Ali%3Apage%3Ad_flagship3_feed%3B0DC97UkzNHbEyKDo57NXCQ%3D%3D

Interesting list. I used to keep a similar one to understand what normalized ASP we could expect. LID is what tilts his analysis in favor of multi, but he list it as annual %. I thought LID was much lower (less than 1%) after the first year where it is high (around 3%).

The poly consumption looks low (but I haven't followed this development) and thus result in low poly and ingot cost per piece and watt despite quite high poly price. Margin in module processing seems very high which is a bit unexpected against the backdrop of CSIQ giving up its previous low risk strategy of simply tapping that and now finally making large risky capital intense wafer capacity investments. I guess the module processing cost comes directly from their source manufacturer (probably a leading one in this area). I wonder if the poly consumption also does that or it comes from a different source. 

Speculation on who the source is? GCL and/or CSIQ?

 

Edited by explo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, odyd said:

I asked Gordon for a copy of his note, but he did not send it. I have something he said during Benzinga show

http://www.stockhouse.com/news/press-releases/2017/04/17/top-solar-analyst-likens-canadian-solar-to-sunpower-first-solar-from-2012

He has at least identified where their profits will come from (Japanese IPO and drop downs).

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.



×