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odyd

Trading Strategy

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This table represents this year, after Q4, recommendations' summary from my articles posted on SA.

Going forward, on SA, I will attach this table to every article to illustrate the change of recommendation or the outcome. 

 

Solar 2017 Picks.png

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1 hour ago, odyd said:

This table represents this year, after Q4, recommendations' summary from my articles posted on SA.

Going forward, on SA, I will attach this table to every article to illustrate the change of recommendation or the outcome. 

 

Solar 2017 Picks.png

Great calls :)

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Here are the end of quarter portfolio performance stats (updated in my profile too):

Portfolio / TAN / ^SP500TR new performance stats, 2017-03-31

  • Inception 2016-01-01
  • Return since inception 2.62% / -40.81% / 18.75%
  • CAGR 2.09% / -34.28% / 14.75%
  • Alpha -4.70% / -55.38% / 0.00%
  • Volatility 23.32% / 27.32% / 11.90%
  • Max drawdown -18.16% / -44.43% / -10.27%

1Q16-1Q17_return.thumb.PNG.2d504aac14905f4537ce989e7fc9543e.PNG

Return breakdown

  • Return = Stocks + Funds = -6.86% + 9.48% = 2.62%
  • Return = Gross Return - Expenses = 15.27% - 12.65% = 2.62%
  • Gross Return = Securities + Currencies = 10.52% + 4.75% = 15.27%
  • Expenses = Trade Commissions + Interest + Tax = 1.75% + 9.00% + 1.90% = 12.65%
  • Trade Commissions = Securities + Currencies = 1.00% + 0.75% = 1.75%

Comments

The S&P 500 is still beating the portfolio on all performance metrics (CAGR, Alpha, Volatility, Max drawdown) and the portfolio is still beating the TAN on all performance metrics. The portfolio ended a quarter with positive CAGR for the first time since inception, but the 2% CAGR is a far cry from the 25% target.

The funds are still dominating returns over the stocks, but currencies are no longer dominating returns over securities. Things are heading in the right direction, but very slowly.

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On 2017-03-09 at 10:54 AM, explo said:

I made a strategic shift in my stock holdings. I moved all CSIQ to JKS. I'm now 20/40/40 JASO/JKS/FSLR.

I made another strategic shift by moving all JASO to DQ. Timing-wise it was opportune based on how the stocks have moved past 6 months. JASO's strong EPS trend and crashing poly ASP past weeks have accelerated the shift opportunity the past month, but it might still be premature from a momentum perspective.

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Updated recommendations,

I am 30% CSIQ, 15% NEP, and rest cash as of today. At this point, I will probably wait for the Q1 unless huge move up or down on Q1. 

 

 

April17_17_Update.png

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Excellent number collection from Bond, costs are below $0.30  already in Q1 versus expectation of Q4 2017. If Chinese stocks sell on Q1, it may be last time this year.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/multi-vs-mono-part-7-process-cost-roi-comparison-xiaodong-bond-wang?trk=v-feed&lipi=urn%3Ali%3Apage%3Ad_flagship3_feed%3B0DC97UkzNHbEyKDo57NXCQ%3D%3D

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8 hours ago, odyd said:

Excellent number collection from Bond, costs are below $0.30  already in Q1 versus expectation of Q4 2017. If Chinese stocks sell on Q1, it may be last time this year.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/multi-vs-mono-part-7-process-cost-roi-comparison-xiaodong-bond-wang?trk=v-feed&lipi=urn%3Ali%3Apage%3Ad_flagship3_feed%3B0DC97UkzNHbEyKDo57NXCQ%3D%3D

Interesting list. I used to keep a similar one to understand what normalized ASP we could expect. LID is what tilts his analysis in favor of multi, but he list it as annual %. I thought LID was much lower (less than 1%) after the first year where it is high (around 3%).

The poly consumption looks low (but I haven't followed this development) and thus result in low poly and ingot cost per piece and watt despite quite high poly price. Margin in module processing seems very high which is a bit unexpected against the backdrop of CSIQ giving up its previous low risk strategy of simply tapping that and now finally making large risky capital intense wafer capacity investments. I guess the module processing cost comes directly from their source manufacturer (probably a leading one in this area). I wonder if the poly consumption also does that or it comes from a different source. 

Speculation on who the source is? GCL and/or CSIQ?

 

Edited by explo
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8 hours ago, odyd said:

I asked Gordon for a copy of his note, but he did not send it. I have something he said during Benzinga show

http://www.stockhouse.com/news/press-releases/2017/04/17/top-solar-analyst-likens-canadian-solar-to-sunpower-first-solar-from-2012

He has at least identified where their profits will come from (Japanese IPO and drop downs).

 

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