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Enphase Energy, Inc (ENPH)

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Anyone following this company? Traded in low teens beginning of this year and now in low single digits. 

Q3 ER: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/enphase-energy-reports-financial-results-210500090.html

Entering price war to retain market share: http://www.pv-tech.org/news/enphase_entering_price_war_as_sales_growth_slows_and_competition_heats_up

 

 

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More here: http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/enphase-cuts-prices-by-19-to-alleviate-weak-q3-sales-growth_100021871/#axzz3qX68vbMK

This price war between ENPH and SEDG is not good for them, but good for developers/installers and maybe for panel makers (system cost is pressured in other part of value-chain).

 

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Recently I took a position in ENPH and I'm planning to add to it. Enphase is not just inverters but Storage and I think their lowering price on inverters while still making a mid twenties margin in Q4 with plans to increase GM through cost reduction they plan to be back in a range of 30-35% GM. They are aggressive and they are unlike SEDG where all they do are inverters and optimizers. I think lowering the micro-inverter that they make may be in part about being competitive but more about broadening market share which gives them a broader market to showcase and sell their Storage to.

 

Edited by Julyw
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18 hours ago, odyd said:

I moved this company to the bankrupt section.

Did they declare bankruptcy?

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2 hours ago, sunnypease said:

Did they declare bankruptcy?

No, they did not, nor YGE did. It is to warn others this is not worth their money.

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The stock made a comeback, however, I do not think it is worth to be in it for a long haul. I restored the forum, for those who plan to discuss it.

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Does anyone here own Enphase? I have been following it for a bit and am thinking about a position. I have been hearing lots of good things. Any thoughts about the company and prospects moving forward?

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Yes, I own it, although as is in keeping with my current investing strategy, strictly as a trading vehicle (I no longer do buy-and-hold with solars).

Prospects seem to be good.  They're borderline profitable now, and expected to become more so, slowly and gradually, the same way as RUN (another one I own/trade).  Also, and of key importance to me, they have been fairly volatile recently (although that stopped a few days ago).  That allows me multiple opportunities to buy small lots (relatively) low and sell (relatively) high in a short time frame (movement of 20c+).

Finally, their CEO recently made some comments that hint at an earnings surprise.  While there are never any guarantees in solarland, it would surprise me greatly if their stock price would collapse again.

They (along with RUN) should make more and more money as the solar market continues to expand in the future.  No one can predict the rate of that expansion, but I think it WILL expand.  As such, I'd say they're a solid choice in the solar space, even for buy-and-hold.

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2 hours ago, solarpete said:

Yes, I own it, although as is in keeping with my current investing strategy, strictly as a trading vehicle (I no longer do buy-and-hold with solars).

Prospects seem to be good.  They're borderline profitable now, and expected to become more so, slowly and gradually, the same way as RUN (another one I own/trade).  Also, and of key importance to me, they have been fairly volatile recently (although that stopped a few days ago).  That allows me multiple opportunities to buy small lots (relatively) low and sell (relatively) high in a short time frame (movement of 20c+).

Finally, their CEO recently made some comments that hint at an earnings surprise.  While there are never any guarantees in solarland, it would surprise me greatly if their stock price would collapse again.

They (along with RUN) should make more and more money as the solar market continues to expand in the future.  No one can predict the rate of that expansion, but I think it WILL expand.  As such, I'd say they're a solid choice in the solar space, even for buy-and-hold.

Thanks for your reply. I did see the CEO recent comments about their stock price going to the moon. That made me laugh.

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ENPH single-handedly making up for rest of solar investments I have ever made.  They're more than on their way back.  They have far better tech than SEDG, who has most of the inverter market and their costs are dropping.

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Getting slammed the past few days.  Comments by Prescience Point Capital Management are tanking it. Such a scam that stuff like that is legal.

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3 hours ago, singular said:

Getting slammed the past few days.  Comments by Prescience Point Capital Management are tanking it. Such a scam that stuff like that is legal.

From Yahoo: 52 Week Range 0.76 - 7.60

It was recently at the high of that range A tenbagger in less than a year seems like a quick gain of altitude. Maybe a breather at less thin air was needed. If you bought at the 52 week low you're still up more than 700%. Beware of "greed" - the evil companion of "quick success".

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ENPH back over $7- just announced their inverter upgrade program.  IQ8 should release soon.  They had supplier issues that should be cleared soon and opening a new plant in Mexico this year to sidestep tariffs.  A great story continues.

 

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I was so excited earlier this year when ENPH hit $7.  Looks like $17+ today and no end in sight as they build market share with their industry leading products.  IQ8 by the end of the year!

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1 hour ago, SolarRoof said:

I was so excited earlier this year when ENPH hit $7.  Looks like $17+ today and no end in sight as they build market share with their industry leading products.  IQ8 by the end of the year!

Yes, most of my gains this year have come from ENPH.  A great story!

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It's certainly been quite the wonderful ride so far, but now I wonder if we haven't come too far, too fast.  Unless earnings are absolutely stellar, I think they can easily retrench 25% or more.

In which case I will gladly buy more, as I do believe in their long-term promise.  It's just going to take more than 3 months to get there.

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I've been selling to 50 cent increments since $10.  Just wonder how things will look when IQ8 comes out and they really start cutting into SEDG market share.

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Yes, I've been frantically trading them as well, but I'm now being very careful to not accumulate too many trading positions at these prices--at least not before earnings.

Their long-term potential is staggering, but I also wonder how long it will be before a competitor emerges.  I'm sure they have patents on their ASICs, but inverter physics is well-known, as is the concept of an adaptive "smart" device, meaning they don't have a moat to completely eliminate competition.  They need to make as much money as possible NOW, while they still have the playing field to themselves.  (And by "now" I mean the next 2-3 years--that's how long it would probably take for a serious competitor to conduct their research & development and to emerge as a major market supplier.)  So the good times should continue for a while, but I don't know about world domination (chuckle)....

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