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Looks like SOL, HSOL and CSUN stocked up in international warehouses, while the rest reduced overseas stocks. Beware of the assumptions.

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I sold some TSL, I still hold ample, but moved them to CSIQ. The message I got GADP pricing for TSL is reflecting the drop as we read in the GM. I think poly went up on them. They are underutilized. I am confused about CSIQ on GDAP, but I think they ship a lot to inventory, to get 9% GM or pulling plant revenues.

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We saw GADP drop more for CSIQ than for TSL from Q4 to Q1 and we see GM rise more for CSIQ than TSL from Q4 to Q1. Back to the cost correlation track, if it was not due to projects. I have to ask you odyd. You are 100% certain Trina's ASP was 67 cents in Q4? With 36% shipped to China in Q4 I then estimate their global ASP was over 70 cents in that quarter and I have a hard time getting that high ASP fit with their weak GM compared to the strong 3 (JKS, CSIQ and SOL in Q4 all had mid single digits GM on modules at several cents lower global ASP). At least with low GADP drop and much less domestic shipments in Q1 I would expect them to follow or catch up with CSIQ rather than slip further on GM.

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I did the math with Thomas Young, so unless he lied I would say it was. CSIQ numbers for GDAP are not representing ASP (due to some aberration). TSL on the other hand do, imho. I think their processing is up to 0.61 to 0.62 versus 0.63 ASP. CSIQ Japan has to be an error. If CSIQ got to 0.56 processing even at 0.61 they make their 9%. If ASP goes up in Q2, CSIQ rocks.

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Thanks. Yes, CSIQ Japan looks to much below the market every month, so their ASP should be well above their GADP there. Yes, I'm thinking they will have an ASP drop do 61, but also drop costs a lot to 56 or slighly lower and then they don't need projects to achieve that 9% GM. Note also that their kit sales to Japan might have higher GM than pure module sales.

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I'll have a look later. I wish they had disclosed cogs this quarter, but still the ASP will clear the picture a bit. My understanding is that domestic shipment volume was disclosed as around 30%, so that will help the model. Actually I expected GASP to be around 62 cents and it might have been or a bit higher with 30% China shipments.

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I have to look at my files first. I cannot see this now. Check Japan size of deliveries in Q4 and Q1. Analyze distribution of deliveries by SOL and map the difference with JASO deliveries. Europe sounds cheap. I can recall that JASO had 32MW sent there. Japan highest shipper out of all Chinese I believe. Of course you do not have Q4 deliveries but I will help out on this tonight.

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What are you guys projecting on module ASP for JASO? Do you think they beat SOL?

My model suggests 59 cents, but shifting a lot from China to Japan in Q1, my gut says more, so I'll say 60 cents instead.

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Thank you odyd, I really do appreciate your insight. Any feedback you can give me on JASO and data would be great. I have a tremendous amount of respect for you and explo, I appreciate both your guys insight. JASO really looks like it has the least exposure to Europe. Only about 25% maybe less? Japan market is going insane it is obvious they are doing well there. China according to SOL is having silly 2Q installs and 5GW first half of year. I might move more over to JASO, have 50K in cash in trading account....

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I say that it will be at 0.62 to 0.63, which is better or flat (0.62) than Q4. It is a big guess. Can you see any Israel shipments there and SA? I will get back to you tonight. 5 to 6% margin

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I say that it will be at 0.62 to 0.63, which is better or flat (0.62) than Q4. It is a big guess. Can you see any Israel shipments there and SA? I will get back to you tonight. 5 to 6% margin

Yes they had a pretty big number to Israel... 14MW in march exports. Nothing to SA in march

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Yes, I think JASO is APAC and select smaller emerging markets focused. They will not bother with unfair US and EU. Cell is their thing. It would be too expensive to outsource their core value. My worry with the names that give up on EU and US is the crowding elsewhere if all Chinese try the same. More than 13 GW Chinese panels were shipped to EU in 2012 and a couple of GW to US maybe. This will be the mother of all migrations. Sounds like it could get chaotic to me. China and APAC will grow a lot in 2013, but probably not enough to absorb a huge migration of the majority of Chinese panels sent to EU and US in 2012. Here's the breakdown of this mass migration mess: EU was 17 GW and Americas 3.8 GW in 2012, China 5 GW, APAC 4.8 GW and ROW 0.4 GW. If we look at EPIA demand projection for 2013 (which don't seem to expect a total collapse in EU due to higher prices) we have EU 13 GW, Americas 7 GW, China 8 GW, APAC 8 GW, ROW 1.1 GW. So with the tariff markets EU (potential) and US (factual) together constituting a flat 20 GW of demand in 2012 and 2013 or 65% and 55% respectively of the world market. If they are not going to be de facto markets for the Chinese and instead a majority of around 15 GW of Chinese panels are moving to the growing China, APAC and ROW that are adding 7 GW more installs in 2013 then 2012, then I'd say there's a big risk of absorption problem. Things will be fierce in China, APAC and ROW (some small haven might be found by early establisher here) with extreme pressure from the huge migration wave, while EU and US will enjoy prosperity after the end of the Chinese occupation. Something like that is how I see the risk scenario play out. Utterly annoying, but the tariff facts and consequential analysis cannot be disregarded just because it is annoying. So Chinese solar in wafer to module will have a tough time, while for Chinese poly it could be the opposite. Non-Chinese wafer to module will have a feast on cheap non-Chinese poly and high ASPs in China curbed markets. But solar11 are dirt cheap and being punished for being best, so is there anyone of these best and cheapest names that could come out only slightly bruised by this chaos and my answer is SOL and CSUN who plan to go against the general migration stream. They'll be fairly alone in their old still green pastures. That said I took profits on SOL, not so much for missing on their cost guidance and disappointing disclosure as that I think that this ER season will be the start of a sober realization of the mess ahead of us. Registration started in early March and on June 6 we get preliminary decision. That's a quarter of business that couldn't just be suspended. Neither suppliers nor customers were willing to take tariff risk so circumvention or migrations have started and been executed. EU already ignited the fire causing mass exodus and it will be a messy 2013 regardless of decision now. Don't shoot me. :)

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Just a quick glance as I look over raw data before I have to head out, JASO ASP is dramatically higher than SOL. I know there are many move parts but it looks to me as if JASO should easily beat .61 which SOL hit, unless data is totally skewed. I know their is the yen effect but still those ASP should be coming in at nice premium

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Pop, I don't trust the absolute values of the declared value data, since they don't match reported ASP in Q4. For example JASO had 61 cents ASP in Q4 but 74 cents declared value (GADP). Instead my model now look at change in GADP and for now (to be confirmed by Q1 reports) assume it reflects change in GASP. See attached model with my JASO projection and acronym definitions. The model is still very uncertain. I'm guessing/aligning the CASPs to make the model fit.

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Pop, my opinion is as follows, JASO increased shipments by 67%, SOL did by 27%. I excluded opportune sales under 5MW and then look at the areas of growth, you will see that SOL increased sales in Belgium, Holland, India and under “Others”, which is some small sales to SA, Eastern Europe etc. None of those locations is paying high ASP. Both Belgium and Holland are low paid areas, and probably storage to a degree. Sales to Greece, the US and Australia went down in tune of 32%, 58%, and 29%. 326.6MW was shipped and we have 281.1MW delivered. 30% was to be China, so we have 228.62 shipped. Inventory has gone up to. I would say SOL sold modules made in Q4. This lifted cogs up. They placed modules into European warehouses during Q1, to a point of increasing inventory. Prices have lost 1.6% on GDAP and in reality around 3.2%, which tells me that Belgium pricing for SOL was phony in Q1. JA’s growth markets were following: UK, 51%, Japan 141%, Israel 437%, and Europe flat, 6MW sent extra or 23% increase from 26MW delivered in Q4 to Europe (most to UK the highest fit in Europe). Company does not keep inventory in Europe. Pricing issue is with OEM services for Japan, but I think the hidden gem is mono-cells for Japan market which sell like hot cakes and cells have been going up as opposed to wafers, which are not. Now is the confusing part about GDAP. Drop of some 10 cents but to 0.68. So we have no connection. I have nothing else to contend with the exception that market distribution is tremendously beneficial for the company. They make some of the most efficient cells around. They make some truly efficient modules. They own Japan. I guess no reduction in ASP, because of growth of market penetration, and a lot limited presence in China than Q4. In Q4 if we understand that 103MW was delivered out of 283MW shipped in Q4, this is only 36% on export. 170MW out of 300MW is 56% for Q1. This is why I see them be fixed on price or maybe a cent higher.

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Intuitively I agree with odyd. The move from China to higher ASP markets should increase ASP.

On Japan I would still caution a bit against being to bullish about it for a couple of reasons.

[*]The unlucky 20% depreciation of the Yen

[*]The high degree of mono, which can carry around 6 cents higher cost, should be adjusted for when looking at how attractive the market is. China has lower, but increasing ASP for low cost panels and low freight as an example.

[*]Many Chinese companies are drawn to Japan, like Germany the government likely need to regulate install pressure with FiT rate cuts. FiT rates are tuned to get the desired install rate at lowest possible cost.

Note that Japan market will be as big for SOL as China and US, so I want Japan to do well from my holdings bias I just thinking that it could be a negative surprise in terms of that the market will not be so much better than others on GM contribution as we thought. In terms of credit risk and allowing sales growth I think it will be a great market.

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who reported results from operating in Japan? SPWR, how come they had said nothing about that? Explo contract pricing is set months in advance it does not fluctuate. Chinese lose on Euro and US translations to RMB they do not lose to yen I doubt they sell in yen. Prices in short term contracts would be adjusted to reflect depreciation. I attached Motech pdf on results of Q1 2013, 100% improvement. They sell a lot to Japan.

Pop, I am impressed that you move to JASO so quick, so I feel somewhat responsible for this but do not feel discourage by outsmart. TSL have 28MW in Japan they have lost $20M in forex because they are hedging $177.5M worth of derivative future contracts. JASO has nothing. They sell in RMB or US dollars.

Pieces from TSL disclosure below:

Most of our sales are currently denominated in U.S. dollars and Euros, with the remainder consisting mostly of Renminbi

“Starting from October 2008, we have entered into a series of foreign currency forward contracts with several commercial banks to hedge our exposure to foreign currency exchange risk. As of December 31, 2012, we had foreign currency forward contracts with a total contract value of approximately $177.5 million.”

Assuming a 1.0% appreciation of the Euro against the U.S. dollar to the exchange rate as of December 31, 2012, the mark-to-market loss of our outstanding foreign exchange forward contracts (Euros/U.S. dollars) would have increased by approximately $1.0 million as of December 31, 2012.

Assuming a 1.0% appreciation of the Renminbi against the U.S. dollar to the exchange rate as of December 31, 2012, the mark-to-market gain of our outstanding foreign exchange forward contracts (Renminbi/U.S. dollars) would have increased by approximately $0.7 million as of December 31, 2012.

CSIQ delivered 86MW to Japan in Q1, they have 10% margin, I doubt they would lose $60M in Forex and say nothing. Lastly TSL had shown GDAP increase in Japanese prices from 0.71 to 0.78, still do not know what that means. Now you tasting some of that medicine folks were giving to those who did not have SOL, just because you have JASO. No longer CSIQ is the enemy is the JA.

Good luck on Monday man.

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Yeah I have no problem moving money on a dime to another stock....like I said no emotions... Solars now are all about margins and if we can see positive margins of 4%+ and good guidance I think she will gap and run.... How long I hold I dont know....

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Odyd, it looks like I wasn’t clear on my point about the Yen depreciation problem. I'm not talking about JASO or Q1 (the impact might be zero there). Due to hedging strategy from currency use in contracts or use of forex derivatives the currency move effect can be absorbed over a longer period instead of one big hit, but eventually the spreads are a fact of business say 6 months after occurrence. If it is one bitter truth that I've learned as an investor it is that for export companies, no matter how strategic and efficient, the short-term profits (1-3 year time-frame) these companies make are to a large degree determined be the relative currency moves of their sales centers and cost centers (and in case of cyclic industries also the supply/demand balance). That's why I say forex is a bitch. So the situation we have is that we got a nice FiT denominated in Yen that sets the revenue generating value (on electricity sales) that a panel has in Japan. The cost to make a panel in China is instead largely denominated in RMB. So if Yen goes down and RMB goes up relative to reporting currency USD then value goes down and cost goes up for the panel in the reporting currency. When value goes down, it will hit price too (you want price to reflect value as a buyer). Another perspective is that the Yen depreciation becomes a virtual import tariff. The Japanese buyers see the price difference contracting between Japanese and Chinese panels if Japanese sells in Yen and Chinese in RMB or USD. It is best illustrated by this scary forex graph. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=CNYJPY%3DX&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=CNYUSD%3DX%2CCNYEUR%3DX%2C+&ql=1 This shows how much the cost of a panel with a RMB denominated price has gone up in Yen. The cost of the panel in Yen at a fix RMB price is up over 30%. This is the same level as the cost of a panel containing Chinese cells went up in the US due to the import tariff there. As you can see the USD and Euro depreciated slightly too, but not significantly so there it is the import tariff costs that are the main issue. So the macro picture here is that cost of Chinese panels or Chinese panels containing Chinese cells are up 35% in US, will be up 30% in Japan in 2H2013 and might be up 50% in EU. That only leaves China of the 4 big markets of 2013 as not seeing cost of Chinese panels going up radically. To me that is messed up. Not only are these guys fighting overcapacity. They fight import tariffs in more than 50% of the world markets and currency moves in the new haven. This sucks. Now to the bright spots. ASP has shown strength in China, but it is still a 60 cents market and if it gets better than export markets it will get oversupplied which prevent its ASP from going up too much. Still this is good news, because looking at freight costs etc, China will be a very good demand contributor to these guys (good for JA with big China focus). There is one warning about China though. Cost could go up due to increased poly cost from import tariffs, but I expect in that case the ASP will rise too, since I think there is some room and no one else can supply cheaper. Poly tariff costs are lower than panel tariff costs, so it is less of an issue. Other good news is strong demand growth in China, Japan and US. And further good news is US and EU ASPs will go up a lot due to the import tariff costs, so tariff free panels that can be supplied at low cost will see good margins there. This is mainly good news for those that have manufacturing capacity available outside China, like CSUN in Turkey and possibly CSIQ for EU (but they are already enjoying that in the much more curbed Ontario market) and all non-Chinese panel makers. The Yen issue cannot be circumvented as easily, since you need to move manufacturing to Japan and that’s probably an expensive solution. Let me remind you what SOL said on the their CC. They will sell 1/3 to APAC and 60-70% of that to Japan, so by no means is this Yen move less of a problem for SOL. Note also that SOL did not mention the forex issue, but rather implied that ASP would be high in Japan. It was not very clear, but if they said ASP for APAC would be 65 cents then Japan would be close to 70 cents. So this suggests either ignorance about the Yen development (unlikely) or that he thinks the Chinese will not lower panel prices to compensate for them becoming 30% more expensive in Yen. This would then make Japanese panels more competitive and we’ll likely see a big capacity expansion in Japan. They might also only have suggested their global ASP to be above 65 cents and with 60 cents in Japan they would still make 66 cents globally with 70 cents in EU and 65-70 cents in US. I wish they were a bit clearer here. Let’s hope JASO brings better clarity. I’ll also add that as we saw SOL’s costs exploding up in Q1 and they explicitly said that tolling cells cost a lot now (sounds like it went from 1-2 cents in Q4 to 6-7 in Q1 in penalty). Now I suspect that they still tolled a lot in China, so this could be a very positive for JASO. As seen in the attached plot cell margins have exploded up lately on pvinsights, but I’m not sure exactly what this reflects (Chinese, Taiwanese or global markets). It’s a definite negative for SOL, since they need to outsource a lot of cells outside China. So after 4 years in the industry usually looking mainly at the bright spots I’m starting to look for clouds now. Yes, that timing seems messed up, but what I see is a very shiny horizon, but more distant and ugly clouds in between. So note that clouds are for 2H2013 and it is not demand related, but more related to tariffs and currency moves making the cost to buy a Chinese panel go up. Position disclosure: I’m still very bullish on top picks of solar11 and think the up trend for stock price appreciation has started. Short-term I sold the remainder of my SOL holdings yesterday. This is a very rare move of me. The reason is the cost explosion reported by SOL. Now this could quite likely mean a margin expansion for those with cell capacity, but my position for now is to follow the rest of the ER conference calls to see what sort of sentiment they convey. If for example JASO are positive about profitability, then they are given. They have the best balance sheet and their stock price have not started to run yet. CSIQ seems like a sure bet, because of project pipeline in low risk markets with high FiT, capacity in Canada and generally low enough capacity to be flexible without incurring too much idling cost. JKS is similar on capacity. They sell more than they can produce and can be flexible. They also have a lot of project development, but in more risky markets. Module sales are also in risky markets (China) and they took ugly receivables charges in Q4. These 3 and SOL are what I primarily look at now, but HSOL and CSUN are very low valued outsiders. DQ might have most of all going for it this year. Still those 3 I don’t see enough long-term strength in to be attractive. I’m still very concerned about big exposure to cell capacity in China, that’s why I’ll likely be entering SOL again (and I will enter as soon as I have the picture more clear), otherwise I think JASO would be the given low risk choice. Always end with a positive. I’ve been tracking pvinsight for a long time and will share a graph with data buyer here. Attached are the value-chain spreads (cell = cell price – wafer price, etc.). Looks good for cell profits. :) Good luck on Monday with JA ER (you too Pop). Let’s hope they guide a shiny horizon for the market sentiment to get some positive fuel (I might jump back in already on Monday if that’s the case, where depends on other things they say).

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Explo this is a big post. I am getting to understand parts of it I just describe what it seems simple to me and is my message. Chinese measure their cost in RMB and sell in three ways RMB, USD and EURO. When they make a sell they record it in the currency of sale. Manage their accounts in RMB and report in USD. The difference between the values of the currency at the time of the sale vs. the exchange is what we called foreign exchange.

So they peg their currency as follows CNYUSD and EUROUSD. Your costs do not go up in any

of those currencies because YEN depreciated. It does affect you in following way however:

Selling in YEN

Assume they price was set in YEN reflective USD of 0.73 per watt in January. Price in RMB was 4.5479 and JPY was 63.17. Say 30% of transaction was paid up front (JASO takes down payments). The other 70% of money was sent in March. They sent 63.17 per watt. This is now 3.916 RMB, you take this into a USD, by the time they cashed it the 0.73 turned into 0.638. The processing, let’s called it 0.60 USD remains the same, the margin of

this transaction has changed from 17.8% to 5.9%. However you would not report this like that. You would report as 0.75/0.60 under GM and take a Forex loss. JASO sold 96MW to Japan let’s say they sold it in this way. Since 70% of revenue is given in March they report Revenue/COGS as normal and Forex the difference; math below:

In this case 70%*96*0.092 or $6.1M this is the worse can happen. JASO has no currency hedging. I think they they may even sold for RMB, making the buyer to pay them in RMB and buy RMB with YEN. This would have a zero effect on JASO.

Solar market is not fixed. Prices fluctuate and they are getting quoted in USD or EURO. I agree with you that price will increase for Japanese buyers when YEN depreciates but prices for modules went down, softening this. I

guess what you explain is shrinking margin.

Japanese buyer condition is following 0.73 USD in January cost him 63.17. In March 0.65 becomes 64.3.

This is why module prices would go down in Japan so buying would continue, reducing margin for vendors (module makers).

Bottom line it affects every exporter to the country in the same fashion: Taiwanese, Chinese and American since every currency appreciated in the same way against YEN. Once again Chinese will be the one to lower USD quotes to keep

Japanese costing (buyer) lower. It is an opportunity, since Chinese have the best margins. Japanese buyer which bought in YEN theoretically spent less if inflation followed. However if he is the one who needs to send USD to vendor, he would have to buy USD with weaken currency.

Example of Motech and SPWR is an example where they have raised prices and not lowered them. Motech became more expensive to a point increasing their GM, as you see the effect is different. However I do not see their currency effects. This is why Chinese can get in, including the company like SOL. Since I expect volume effect increase in GM due to large shipments to Japan, I see the GM increase, and risk of forex as described. Lack of derivatives for currency futures will not offset potential FX which I think would be in this level.

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Yes it was a long post sorry about that. I'll make a short example of my point instead. Note again that it has nothing to do with JASO or Q1, already inked contracts or hedging. It has to do with the 2H2013 change in IRR in Japan when using Chinese panels and how that can affect pricing of new contracts signed now. So Chinese panel price in Japanese market in October 2012: 0.80 USD 5.00 RMB 62.0 JPY Assuming retained Chinese panel price in USD (I know this is not the fact, which is my point) in Japanese market in May 2013: 0.80 USD 4.92 RMB 82.6 JPY Since FiT is fixed in Yen the 30% increase in panel cost lowers the IRR. Now I don't know if lowering the IRR would have zero impact on demand or pricing (could be possible if IRRs were already way too high), but in Germany they've had strong correlation (panel price had to adjust for retained IRR level when FiT was cut). So say that Japanese market now still has Chinese panel demand point at 62 Yen in May, then contracts signed in USD or RMB would be at the following rates: 62.0 JPY 3.70 RMB 0.60 USD Honestly I don't know much about why it depreciated other than that it came from a record high level. Maybe the FiT rates were set to handle an expected depreciation. Clearly a 30% depreciation has huge boost for exports margins and puts huge pressure on import margins. I think it is an event of significance to the outlook for our solar11s and it would be interesting to hear how the board views this risk. I'd be surprised if it is not discussed on the JASO call, since they shipped significant volumes to Japan in both Q4 and Q1. Note that I discuss this from a Global ASP data perspective, not a stock picking perspective. Attached is the GADP development in different markets. You see a convergence pattern and I believe this reflects currency movements pushing down Japanese ASP and tariff situation pulling up ASPs in markets with tariff costs. China I'm not sure, might just be because it is booming at the same time as Japan and US. It need to offer a more attractive ASP to get attractive supply.

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So say that Japanese market now still has Chinese panel demand point at 62 Yen in May, then contracts signed in USD or RMB would be at the following rates: 62.0 JPY 3.70 RMB 0.60 USD

Thanks, this is much clearer. Margin squeeze and effect on IRR for developers is what you are after. I am good on everything until I hit the highlighted quote. Why would you think that YEN pricing would remain if the currency lost its value? I can see that old price would exchange for less dollars today, but to keep the old price does not make much sense to me. I think what you see in GDAP is a compromise of lowering the price in the USD, to adjust for depreciation effect in yen, in order to keep IRR reasonable. Furthermore, GDAP is not really connected to what happens in the world of ASP (yet until we see what this ASP looks like). We have to learn it. I can speculate what Motech did on pricing in Q1 vs Q4. When looking at Motech I see improvement of GM, but I do not see a foreign exchange impact (not because it is not there, but because I simply do not see it). However I see that 351MW of cells shipped brought in some 0.34 per watt, while cells sold in Q4 brought in 0.35, a 1.05% reduction. This tells me that prices from Q1 may have bee higher in March, but December contracts kept ASP lower. Nevertheless, Motech had 7.5 base points improvement in its GM. While SOL in ASP moved down 3.2%, it seems to me it did not experienced price increase in Q1, perhaps due to module moving a lot slower up. However cell companies had done that. NSP and Gintech had not only increased in ASP,which in Q1 was a small deterioration vs. Q4, but both improved their GM. Yet their costs remain uncompetitive. Imagine JASO selling a cell at 0.35 per watt and making one at 0.15? I think that concern for IRR based on YEN depreciation is not that big, if it is I have not seen any slowdowns. SOL also stated they want to be in Japan and want 0.70 per watt. I think that Japan's ASP may flatline with other locations, but tariff in EU may make Japan to be a cheap ASP country when all of it is settled.

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I just read response from singular about ASP. This means that the drop was very similar about 1.6% assuming we are dealing with 1 cent impact. What is interesting is the nature of GDAP. Prices are quoted in RMB at customs, since the market pricing gone down, how about they have changed them down to avoid taxation, but in reality goods were sold at higher level? This could be a trick which seems to affect CSIQ and STP as well ? Everyone looking at GDAP, may see Japan's big presence companies to lose a lot on ASP, but reality is they are avoiding to pay exportation taxes?

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Why would you think that YEN pricing would remain if the currency lost its value?

Just to clarify, it was just an example with the hypothetical scenario of constant price in Yen between October and May. I'm not thinking too much at this point more than that the 32% decpreciation cannot be good. How bad it is is the first question. Second question is where the Yen is heading. For now it seems to be in a free fall. One good spin on this is although the Japanese companies benefit, the other countries (not China or Japan) might leave more for the Japanese and Chinese as they move away from Japan to the tariff markets instead.

On GADP, the values cannot be interpreted for reasons that you mention, i.e. we don't know the declared value formula or function they use for different markets, but I think the trends can be a good indicator if we can assume the function is unchanged. Then the only question becomes which functions (per company and market) has selling price as a parameter and which have cost (internal shipments to subsidiaries) and which can be a mix, i.e. what the trends represent.

Q1 ER will give us some clue. SOL was not good indicator, since their GADP did not move much between Q4 and Q1.

Things to hope for in the JASO CC:

[*]Confirmation on Yen depreciation impact to 2H Japan market (hopefully the issue is not as big as I fear)

[*]Confirmation on cell market, both in China and outside (if China is booming like Taiwan it would be great for majority of solar11)

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Looks like coterie la SOL is trying to knock off value of reports. We have snake and now cfeng who stinks of larry and solarcat, trying to critique value of Solarzoom data. I find myself contemplating moving this forum to a paid subscription again. I hope explo you can step up and become voice of reason here. They believe in your leadership of SOL faction, so hopefully if you can voice your opinion against those stupid, naive questions, they will stop act like buffoons.

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(Sorry about long post again) We just have to be patient. The model is not clear until we see Q1 results and see what the GADP moves correlate to in reports. SOL is not a good candidate for this since it did not have a big GADP move and it reduced disclosure of cost. The data is clearly valuable, but it does not say what EPS each company will post in 2013. That would have been too easy. It is what it is, declared volume and values of modules going out from China broken down by company names and destination ports. To me that is clearly interesting data to watch trends in. Once we have enough trend data, it might or might not be possible to build earnings predictions. Although SOL was one of the more difficult names to asses, that 61 cents ASP actually came in exactly as expected according to one of my 3 prediction model candidates. The shipment came also in as expected. SOL stocked up warehouses in Q3 and Q4 and that proved to continue in Q1. The moving part there was the China shipment level which is hard to predict. So if we can't see volume of China shipments it is hard for us to see volume of total shipments. That does not mean it is not interesting to see export deliveries and maybe rougly predict shipments on exports. I told Snake that he should read the data before debating its value. I was attacking Snake years ago for being deceptive on the Yahoo boards. Back then I actually think you did not see the game he played and actually agreed much more with him. Anyway your replies to him last few days could have been mine 3 years ago. I've gotten tired of accusing him by now and just every now and then say that he brings knowledge and value to discussions but keep destroying his credibility by changing his analysis based on his current position (I say this to him because I want him to stay and not risk being ousted by you). He buys in and out trying to maximize short-term profits and paint the picture of the reality on the boards according to his latest move. When he is short he often writes very long analysis with a lot of numbers. Often 90% is good analysis, but consistenly he adds an error to these somewhere which tips the end result to his objective message instead of the actual result of the analysis he is making. First I thought those could be honest error mistakes, but after seeing a very consistent pattern, I've long ago concluded it is a deceptive behaviour. I've many times thought about ignoring him, just like Hobo, but due to the value of his knowledge when you filter out all the deception I've instead chosen to learn to always do this filtering when I read what he writes. He's behaved better here after I warned him a few times, but I think it is getting worse again now that he's gone on a clear short streak. He just cannot help himself. It's up to you if you accept the negatives, since he brings positives too. Monitoring and warning when crossing the line is the least I would do, but you have to decide if you think it is worth your effort. What he isn't like many others are is a factless basher or pumper. He's a knowledgable, but deceptive, basher or pumper (often he is actually just low profile when long). To me that's a much more valuable resource, since I learned to manage deception risk with filtering at reasonable effort. I'll watch the new ids like cfeng and outsmart and who else that have been posting on SOL. I haven't followed them enough to see if they are pumpers. I think one of them mentioned that main position was SPWR and only small position was SOL. There also seems to be some old SOL vs JASO rivalry and a new SOL vs CSIQ rivarly. I think this is just because people compare the names in some way. For SOL and JASO I think it was a stupid as they both being suppliers to module makers (they moved from suppliers to being mainly module makers both now) and their PPS happend to be in close proximity, so people simply saw some contest that did not make sense. For SOL and CSIQ I simply think it was because those were the two that performed best in 2012 and had some kind of business momentum going for them. Them having momentum is also why I think the post volume is biased against those names. I would not automatically be to conspiratory about some names because of post volume without other implications. Momentum names trend. To me those JASO vs SOL vs CISQ comparisons makes no sense, but I see sometimes that people which are long JASO or CSIQ get upset not only when JASO or CSIQ gets a bash, but also if SOL gets a pump. I don't understand why they care so much about that, but I think it is because they don't want SOL to do well, maybe due to these senseless rivarly things. One obivious risk factor for rivalry is of course capacity structure. SOL make poly and buy cells which is opposite to many other names. This can cause those who think in-house poly and outsourced cells is a good structure to flock around SOL, since other names with that structure are in deep trouble, and they will of course claim there are problems with the opposite structure. I think it is impossible to avoid some rivalry from this perspective. Another common reason that people resent some names is that they got burned or disappointed on the name at some point before and can get provoked by pumpers and get temped to bash. In these cases there is a risk emotion overshadows current facts (stopped following, continue to bash). I think it's hard to get a forum that is 100% fact based. Emotions are too strong a force. For us that have learned that emotions are an investor/trader's worst enemy we'll just have to try avoid them in ourselves and be able to separate them from facts in posts we read. You didn't think it would be easy to have a forum like this, did you? :)

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