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I think this is very valuable data. It really gives you a good idea of trend over past 7 months. As a proud owner of SOL I'm excited to see uptick from Jan-Feb and then when you overlay march you see another uptick. I think this is very encouraging. Considering Q1 always slowest Q over year to see ASP ticking up towards end of Q bodes well for the rest of the year for the top 4-5 solars...

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Yes, attached Below is what I did with is thus far Summary what I have done with it to this point, I run simple average for three months for Q4; I am getting very close to announced averages from that quarter, but SOL, JASO (0.58 in Q4?) and CSUN. I also ran this Q4 average against Q1, and they are within 0 to 11% drop, with JKS actually gaining 3%, and +- 1% for Rene. I have done nothing else like weighted by volume or extraction of below 1MW inputs. I think reality is that ASP has dropped from Q4 to Q1 based on this data, and started to pick itself up in March, most of the time. I know this is a dirty look but, we should prepare ourselves for lower revenue, despite volume increases? Since we do not have Chinese component this could be a disaster from revenue side of things and margins, however this is a “lazy” look. Furthermore I see that Renesola avg. is flat, but ASP was 5 cents higher in Q4. If this is the repeat and in fact SOL is getting to 0.55 processing that would be 12% GM, meaning repeating the ASP. In the next step I removed anything over $1 and starting with 0.49 or less. Amazingly Q4 announced averages are very close to the outcome, but they are juts absolute averages, which is clearly wrong. The next step is to look at the weighted average.

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Guest Klothilde

Thanks a lot. Very interesting. Funny how things change. Talesun ramped up a very strong sales force in Germany and really wanted to expand market share there strongly. Seems like they shifted direction completely.

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I just did CSI, removed anything under 1MW, removed anything with more $1 and less than 0.49 assuming this is for inventory. I removed prices without volumes, assuming they are under volume recorded under "other". Came down to 0.584, versus simple average (no volume quantified) at 0.592 (but that does not have ASP for no volume condition) if I go back to simple average nothing adjusted the error here is 0.5821 vs. 0.584. Really interesting, any opinions?

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Guest spinvestor

I took a look at doing a weighted avg analysis for TSL and SOL. For TSL, I get weighted avg ASP of 0.6825 in Q4 2012 versus 0.6352 in Q1 2013. Agreed with Odyd that TSL Q4 numbers seems to correspond with actual sales given overall ASP of 0.67. My calculated Q1 2013 ASP for Trina does not seem in line with where I would think actual sales would be. Given the data from PV Insights and other sources, I would expect Q1 ASPs to be roughly flat to slightly down from Q4. Considering the change in sales mix from domestic to abroad, I would expect to see ASP going up given all else to be equal. Looking at the monthly data, the trend looks counterintuitive - March weighted avg ASP is 0.5860, versus 0.6464 in Feb and 0.6870 in January. Largest ASP drop is within US (0.637 Jan, 0.592 Feb, 0.518 March), which sparks my curiousity as to what else could be going on... For SOL, I get weighted average of 0.5712 for Q4 2012 versus 0.56272 in Q1 2013. Q4 data seem to not correspond with actual sales (i believe overall ASP was somewhere around 0.63). ASP s in some countries in Europe do not appear to correspond with actual sales (0.54 Q1 simple avg in Greece, 0.56 Q4 simple avg in Holland). in Q1 2013 the MoM trend makes sense as weighted average ASPs go from from Jan through March (Jan 0.525, Fed - 0.5456, Mar - 0.602) but again it appears that ASPs in certain countries do not correspond with actual sales (Q1 simple avg of 0.575 in US, 0.533 simple avg in Greece)

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I think for SOL, it maybe they have this difference of 0.05 per watt, which carries over to Q1. I only did CSI so far in my stripped format. But is the bottom line that ASP dropped?

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But is the bottom line that ASP dropped?

I have solar9 declared value decreasing 7% from Q4 to Q1. I hope this is reflecting cost development rather than price development. We need two quarters of actuals too to understand this. SOL will report in less than 10 days. That and HSOL report, should bring some clarification. EU declared value in March was up 14% for SOL, while down 9% for TSL. SOL ROW (not EU) did not change much in March, while TSL ROW was down as much as EU.

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I did Trina, My steps were :nothing below 0.49 and nothing above $1 was included. Anything under 1MW was excluded as well. I did not adjust Q4. Just left it as is. This got me around 0.633 for Q1. When I removed prices below 0.49 I got 0.67 for Q4. Did anyone do the weighted average on Q4 for check? It looks to me that CSIQ is 0.58 from China, but we do not know what happen in Canada. 0.63 average could be the number. I am amazed how close Q4 numbers are and how decreased Q1 numbers are as well. I am doing SOL next

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I repeated the steps for Renesola, I used for Trina and CSIQ, I got 0.56, but I think there is this 5 cents thing hanging there, I would say their ASP averaged 0.61. So I would say ASP for Trina and CSIQ is around 0.63 and 0.61, and SOL is 0.61? This would be very good for SOL. No small average (prize not volume) got me mean average for Q4 SOL at 0.60, so if we are talking 3 cents, this looks like 0.60 for SOL in Q1, this would be 8.3% GM on pc 0.55, if CSIQ has 0.61, at pc of 0.55 plus, it gives them 9.0% plus I am working on JKS next

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Ok, I completed data review.it is attached. I made some observations on sidelines. Two participants are looking weird in the setting . JASO and CSUN. Please have a look and let me know, what you think.

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I just realized we are comparing global ASP to price averages including Chinese pricing from Q4. This means for company like JASO, with massive contribution from China, it would impact this average tremendously. This is why there is such a big discrepancy, ASP Q4 versus averages Q4 from our data.

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I tested Q4, Global price for Jaso was 0.72, current pricing level is 0.68, so it is not off that much. I checked back into the ASP it was stated as 0.62. They shipped around 273MW of modules. If we go on the hypothesis of what they shipped in Q4 globally versus Chinese shipments, it looks to me they had ASP in China during Q4 at 0.56 per watt. A lot of participation in own plant build out. Who knows maybe they sell cheap to Jinglong. I can live with the math at this point. I am still working on CSUN

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I just gave teaser to Klothilde on JA. I think they could have a pretty neat ASP, on equalization or perhaps improvement of Japanese volume in their sales. While their global ASP averages dropped in Q1, they still stand out possibly to big mono contribution. I am attaching the file again with adjustments I made including Q4. It is a bit of gift to those without Q4 volume data.

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Guest Klothilde

Yes, and that's quite worrying. If Japan goes bust then we'll be thrown back to the dark ages again... I hope they step in asap to regulate the market to 10-15 GW of yearly installations somehow...

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Do these relatively small module players have the balance sheets to carry such big project constructions?

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Did anyone do the weighted average on Q4 for check?

I've done all the weighted averages. I haven't excluded outliers and small volumes - but the volume weights should automatically help adjust for that. I've also tried to compare this to reported COGS and ASP for the companies in Q4. Some are close to ASP, but others like HSOL (with high transparency and exports dominated) are not close to ASP. I think we need the Q1 reports to get better understanding. The July and August ASP data would also solve this, but that does not exist, right? We also need to adjust for domestic component in reported ASP and COGS and the timing of revenue recognition. Transparency and thus ASP and COGS confidence ranking: 1. SOL, HSOL 2. JKS 3. CSUN 4. CSIQ 5. YGE 6. TSL 7. JASO 8. STP HSOL having low domestic shipment also make it the best comparison without adjustments for this.

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I am going to do everything as well. Data will clean itself. Announced numbers have Chinese component we have to use Global info in separation, not as a confirmation of overall average. The global trend will tell us if we they are making into a good trend. Thanks explo for summary table

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Explo what do you think of suspiciously low amount for CSIQ in Japan? I think this number is weird, vs. Q4. Is this something they would send toward them building a plant in the country?

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I'm still not convinced that value correlates better with ASP than with COGS. I think HSOL is weirdest with 69 cents declared and 60cents ASP reported in Q4, without much domestic shipments. For CSIQ I expected big cost cuts in Q1 since, the raw material they got from GCL at ridiculous prices (poly below $15, wafer below 20 cents) in November and December have blended into modules sold in January and February. At the same time the from the strong Japan shipments in Q1 and reduced focus on China in Q1 I did not expect much ASP drop. So looking at this name a big Q4 to Q1 drop fits with my expectation for cost development, but not for ASP development. I will do more correlation analysis between reported COGS and declared value and reported ASP and declared value, but I need to convert the reported ASP to ASP for their exports. We don't have July and August declared values and want to understand correlation before we get Q1 reports, so it is a bit of problem. Maybe we cannot understand until SOL reports and then understand a bit more before the others report, but SOL had a huge change between Feb and March so the rev recognition timing impact distorts things and SOL being fairly flat Q4 to Q1 makes it not the best indicator.

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I think that cogs is for subs, plants and warehouses. Other prices are for third party, they got to be selling prices I agree. I am asking Jason on receiver disclosure etc. See what he says. I think this is the difference. I think that HSOL is the most convoluted one on Q4 declared vs. announced average. I think deeper analysis would be required.

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Yes, receiver info would be very valuable, but I guess that creates a lot more data points. Might be expensive for SZ to manage?

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One more thing on CSIQ. I think their values differ a lot by month and little by market, which is a pattern I would expect more from COGS than ASP. I'll do another crunch.

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It would create probably hundred plus data points. I suppose if he is looking at it already, and it is there he sees it. We will see what he says. The problem is that even if we get actual ASP from Q1, we will not know the breakdown for China, its ASP nor any other country. I think the entire "comparison" exercise could be just futile. We are comparing as we want to justify accuracy what we have. However what we should do is see if trends are there on the data. So I suppose nobody knows what we know and we know that ASP dipped in Q1 for most. Therefore even in light of higher exports, (only Canadian adjusted its sales) we are looking at stocks to drop during Q1 or what we expecting to happen?

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HSOL stated ASPs on Q4 CC: Europe 58 cents US 70 cents Japan 76 cents China below 60 cents US and Japan add up with declared value, but not EU where they declare 74 cents, mainly due to Belgium (their biggest port there) being at 75 cents. I think we can conclude that value declaration of shipment to Belgium was way above what their Europe ASP was. I think here is something to investigate.

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I am inventing new term Global Average Declaration Price - GADP in short, not to mix it up with Global ASP.

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