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Thanks odyd. If I'll try to summarize this a major impact could be when the exporting company has an importing subsidiary at the destination. In that case value might reflect cost. When value reflect selling price of a known transaction, the shipment terms FOB or CIF affects that transaction price.

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If it is possible to get a good deal on the sep/oct to feb asp data for all or some of the interesting solar11 (dq, ldk excluded for example) that would be interesting. But the discount to the fresh data price would have to be significant, maybe by limiting number of names to that handful most interesting. Getting the two sample names for free to help with modelling is a very good start and highly appreciated, but I think now that the models can be quite individual.

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Odyd I really appreciate you putting the extra time into breaking down this data, Explo also thank you very much for your time and effort in helping break this data down.

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Hi guys, check your PMs I have sent you a new attachment including HSOL. I have no time to analyze the document today, but I will help to build logical picture to help understand this. Note, March Belgium has been changed so take a note. If you are interested getting other companies excluding LDK and Daqo say let me know. DO not we baiscally looking for other 7 ones. I would say to you probably $200 for the whole piece (my math is about 15 quotes per month) $80 global ASP if it was alone so $5.33 per quote. Now 6 months = 6*7*5.33=$223, I propose $140. Let me know if interested. I am not going to do it for one person.

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Thanks. The HSOL data looks extremely helpful. I can directly see some suspicions confirmed. I won't have time to do the analysis until later. Your estimate of $223 fresh value of data and getting $83 discount for past expiration date sounds reasonable. I would buy this regardless of the results and conclusions of my analysis later. I assume that it is CSUN and STP you'd exclude. Although they are not investable for me, they are still interesting parts of the competitive landscape, so for me it would still be nice if they were included (for that $40 extra cost). But it is also a question of what data of quality SZ has dating back to September and their (additional) cost to acquire it. So say that they don't have data of enough quality to supply for CSUN I would not pay extra for a big effort to obtain that.

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I included them, 7 tickers, we have 2 already no LDK and DQ

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Let's find out if they will agree. If they will I will let you know. It is only you wanting it? Of course if you pattern this and make scientific model, I would ask you to hold the outcome to yourself. Clearly people who bought data for March are the pioneers of this format, but allowing everyone else to know your findings will be unfair to SZ if you are the only buyer. Let’s discuss this here I am open to feedback.

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Yes, no problem. I won't disclose findings from privileged data.

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Thanks you for HSOL and CSIQ sampler. Based on graph can we conclude we saw a slight drop in ASP pricing in these 2 names in 1Q but also note that pricing began rebound toward end of 1Q?

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I am not sure what I am seeing here. I saw HSOL to have 4 cents more than they claim to sell for in Q4 and about 2 less what Canadian sold in Q4. I took a small exercise and I took March data and eliminated all shipments below 1MW. THose are at least 6 40 foot containers of modules. What I got for Yingli was .61, CSIQ at 0.58 and Trina at 0.59. If I go back to announced averages from Q4 I see 1.6% drop for Yingli, 12.1% for CSIQ and same for TSL. If I add back those 2 cents to CSIQ I have around 0.61, 9% gross is at processing of 0.55, so this is reasonable. If I apply the same logic to Hanwha I see them selling at 0.55 per watt, which makes not much sense or does it? The question is how the hell we lost 12% in ASP in Q1, if most guided flat. Any info on this?

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Well let's look at the facts. CSIQ guided to high end of margin range at 9-10% couple days ago. So we already know their margins improved. Taking this into account there is a missing link that is not being taken into account on this data to really pinpoint exact ASP. Explo any more thoughts on this?

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Also keep in mind when solars reported 4Q results they were pretty much done with 1Q so they had very good visibility on where ASP where at. For example I believe in march SOL said they expected slightly lower asp in Q1 followed by uptick In Q2. So I wouldn't stress too much over data

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After looking at HSOL trend there's no way it reflects selling price. My guess is that declared value corresponds to COGS + warranty + shipment and handling cost. Based on that model I predict CSIQ to have 62 cents ASP and 56 cents COGS in Q1. If I'm right the cherries to pick are the ones with low declared value or big decrease in declared value. Maybe there's a rule that highest of cost to produce and distribute goods and the market value must be declared? Then we are right at the inflexion point of that function now.

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I think I suggested everyone here, Shipping costs are not included. They are part of opex. FOB means they deliver to Shanghai (example) and then accountability is customers. However separately they pay for shipment in opex. By rights the price would not include shipping, my bad. I am waiting for Jason to tell me if he will sell those numbers. That 12% drop is something which makes no sense. We must get the other data. However I think we can build pretty awesome prediction tool. What I am thinking is going forward, I can add a prediction tool/template without prior data but based on the past experience, like a template so someone can see what that means each month instead like us going crazy trying to get this right. I can improvise, without showing all the pieces. I will probably hear from him on Sunday night.

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Pop, Spin and Payback are you interested in getting data for other 7 companies form September until February? Please let me know.

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Guest Klothilde

I thought Q1 was supposed to be quite a bit slower? Q2 should be even more explosive.

We need to look at the overall picture incl. China shipments. China had a very strong Q4 with approx. 3 GW. Q4 exports were in the order of 3GW as well, thus overall shipments (neglegting divergence between sales and physical shipments) was around 6 GW. Now in Q1 China slowed down significantly to approx. 1.5 GW (Solarzoom forecast, others), and we have exports significantly higher at 4.4 GW. The total for the quarter is roughly flat at 6 GW however (which is VERY good since Q1 is traditionally slower). Q2 is not very clear imo since the EU tarif decision can have a major impact. However I think with or without tariffs the market in Q2 will have enough momentum to show an increase in any case. If tariffs are off then we will have an overall shipment explosion, since China will pull more in Q2 (2GW+ because of Golden Sun deadline), USA and Japan will increase as well, and Europe will remain roughly flat. If Europe falls significantly I think the increases in China, USA, and Japan will be enough to overcompensate. Now a different question regarding export data: Has anyone noticed the very weak export volumes of Eging and Talesun? These guys have 1GW of yearly capacity each but are exporting almost nothing. Do they have big business in China or are they running at very low utilization? It's particularly surprising to me in the case of Talesun since they made great fanfare in germany about being the next big superpower in PV and going quickly from 1 GW to 2 and 3 GW of production.

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Ok, thus far we have explo, spin and pop, interested. I have a feeling that payback will also be interested. I am going to send them another e-mail with this detail.

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Hi Klothilde this a bit off, but I am planning to ask Ray, my Chinese writer to find info on companies who reside on the list. We started with Shanghai Chaori, which was off and on the lists few times, but they had disaster Q14 and Q1. http://solarpvinvestor.com/spvi-news/486-shanghai-chaori-reports-heavy-loss-in-q1- I am planning to commission more articles, which would gauge companies on the list and what is happening to them. Q1 - relative strength outside 8 US-listed: ET solar -private CNBM (CTIEC)Solar ( I discard this one as buyer of modules) Chint Solar/Astronergy BYD ZNSHINE Solar Zhongli Talesun Solar Q2 Hareon Solar ET solar Chint Solar/Astronergy BYD EGing PV Those will be reviewed.

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Guest Klothilde

That will be extremely interesting for sure. I knew chaori was in trouble, however you don't hear much about others.

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Sounds great, I sent the e-mail to SZ. Waiting for their reply.

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Hi guys got the data, link is posted in general forum on data, please discuss details in this forum.

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Looks to me like ReneSola pricing has been most stable and has gone up in March

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I think posting in this forum is fine as long as everyone gets the data. That is only reasonable.

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