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Explo consider this instead of going vertical on pricing Company across the countries go horizontal across the country, indifferent to company. For example if we exclude SOL at this 0.35 per watt, it looks like 0.76 per watt in Germany. This sounds strangely close to Solarbuzz. If you do this with Japan averages are about 0.70, US looks like 0.61 but this could be a tariff effect, so add 10% to it to counterbalance. India 0.62 but if you take bot h extremes out you have a 0.56 average. What do you think?

I was going to do this as well, but didn't have time. Those market ASP you mention looks more consistent with the trends we've heard about. I'll do this analysis later today.

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Guest Klothilde

66% QoQ increase in shipments for all solar 11 combined. Has this ever happened, let alone in a Q1 ?? Means for sure also way less shipments into China and a significant improvement in ASP. Just moving away from China means going up 5-7 cents comparing solarzoom and pvinsights module prices.

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In deliveries? Not to my knowledge. This is really explosive. I can see that market makers are just putting a lid on it.

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Guest Klothilde

The scary thing is that demand in Q2 is poised to be even bigger than Q1. Japan is growing - utility projects are just getting started there, US traditionally has a weak Q1 and then a stronger Q2, China has the June 30 deadline for the Golden Sun projects...

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I'll do this analysis later today.

Done. Attached. Not sure what to make of it yet. Still seems a bit low for ASPs, even though Japan is higher as expected (could be because high cost JASO and STP ship there).

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Did you take out extremes (low and high) to come up with the averages?

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Guest JulyWebb

So JASO has met 1'st Quarter Expectations with just Japan shipments alone? I guess we could say some of December shipmentswould be in the 1'st Qtr too. Who would you say is looking the best out of the group?

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No, I just did a weighted average. On the strange low numbers I don't think there were much shipment (except some for Hanwha to India) so they don't get much weight in the average then.

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They all look good, if you consider domestic portion not being visible. It is important to understand shipping clock. So Asian shipments are 5 to 10 days, European are 3 or more weeks. Inventory is no longer an issue as it used to be. I can check what was module shipment for Q1?

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Thus far I took extremes out as purposely lower numbers. I think ASP is probably lower by 5%, and 10% in the US to offset the tariffs. I am guessing however. Weighted average is a great approach.

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I've clean weighted averages now, so that any ASP outside [0.40, 1.00] and any volume below 1.00 get 0% weight. New averages attached.

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Heck, that does not look better than Q4. What you are thinking?

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Running around like a chicken with my head cut off today. First time I have checked board, I appreciate you both putting in a lot of effort to decipher this data. I don't think we want to jump to any conclusions right away because this is brand new to us. Hopefully Solarzoom could give us some more clarification, They are the source so I'm sure they have an equation that can make sense of it, Personally my first thought would be to calculate like explo did, without the extreme outliers, even though it's weighted I still think those outliers have a decent effect on final number, anyways thanks for your efforts, if we can really pinpoint close to exact ASP this info is pure gold.... Priceless

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Heck, that does not look better than Q4. What you are thinking?

I've analyzed the CSIQ data and it weirdly adds up exactly to their reported Q4 ASP (but then domestic shipment and Ontario output is not included). Can I post the result here or in PM? I don't know what to think now. Did CSIQ and Trina slash prices in Q1, while Jaso and Hanwha raised them?

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The scary thing is that demand in Q2 is poised to be even bigger than Q1. Japan is growing - utility projects are just getting started there, US traditionally has a weak Q1 and then a stronger Q2, China has the June 30 deadline for the Golden Sun projects...

This really is amazing data. This is the biggest MoM jump ever since we have had hands on data. I thought Q1 was supposed to be quite a bit slower? Q2 should be even more explosive. You guys see those thunder boomers in distance? I think we are setting up for a "Perfect Storm"

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I've analyzed the CSIQ data and it weirdly adds up exactly to their reported Q4 ASP (but then domestic shipment and Ontario output is not included). Can I post the result here or in PM? I don't know what to think now. Did CSIQ and Trina slash prices in Q1, while Jaso and Hanwha raised them?
We know from this morning CSIQ guided towards high end of margins for q1 is there any way we can crosscheck what they guided for in ASP and what our data shows?

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I think it will be hard to meet that 10% GM on modules with the ASP suggested in the SZ data.

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Hold on a second. I think we are doing this wrong. This is a declared value of the shipment. Where is the cost of the shipment? It is part of ASP and becomes part of COGS. However the shipping cost is not going to be declared, obviously. Any thoughts? Also, the 10% is work of cost reduction. If ASP is flat you could gain the % from reduction. I do agree this is not it.

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That CSI ASP data was really valuable, but to fully understand what's going on we would need monthly ASP data from one other company. Preferably with the opposite trend to CSIQ like JASO or HSOL. In Q4 TSL and CSIQ reported 6 ASP cents above JASO and HSOL. In March ASP data JASO is 9 cents and HSOL 6 cents above TSL and CSIQ. This looks like extreme shifts. The CSI ASP trend data shows that the dip we see from Q4 to March for CSIQ is in fact the dip suggested for Q4 to Q1, since Q4 trend ASP data is same as reported ASP and Q1 bottom was in February and average is slightly lower than March. Either this data is confusing or CSIQ will have GM help from total solutions or they have cut COGS brutally. Can CSIQ have seen 14 cent Japan ASP drop in the 3 months from October to January? I mean Japan looks no better than Europe for CSIQ.

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to fully understand what's going on we would need monthly ASP data from one other company. Preferably with the opposite trend to CSIQ like JASO or HSOL.

HSOL is probably best, since they are transparent with ASP.

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Explo, I think you need to stop analyzing this data for a moment and to fully understand what this data is first. So you have declaration. What does this mean? What governs accuracy of this declaration, what is this declaration truly representing? As I said and I am more convinced shipping cost is not in the declaration. Is there a reason why one company declared A, while other had A+ or A-. What other components are there? Of course data is confusing, because you want this to be what ASP is given during the CC, the only familiar thing we have. This was never the ability of it. Second, we must try to answer those questions before we say what we see is what we know it is. I do not believe for a second that HSOL or JASO has this price advantage. You are already making a mistake comparing those values to GM offered by CSIQ. Being able to have those precise answers to questions you propose you would spent thousands of dollars as those are only offered by the CFOs before you even hear about them, if this is even possible and legal. Expecting this to be that level accurate or without a flaw in this data offering is impossible. This is why analysis needs to happen. We should work on the model and build this model on deduction, logic and feedback from Solarzoom. I do not think we can get 100% accurate but we can get good at it. I am going to work with Jason, to ask how he explains those variables. Let’s put the list of questions together and see what he says. I will also ask for the set for JASO or HSOL. I asked for three last time and got one.

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Thanks. I realize that this might not reflect exact ASP levels, but that trend in this data should reflect trend in ASP. It's the high "ASP" data of JASO and HSOL compared to TSL and CSIQ that's hard to understand (or a major insight if reflecting ASP shifts). Not the values individually, but how they relate to each other. HSOL would probably be easiest for validation, since Jaso is always cryptic.

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Yeah, Jaso has too much, cell, tolling, domestic messing up the picture. HSOL is better for modelling.

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Agree, this would be my ask. Let's not get too worked up about this. Please list your immediate questions and I will incorporate. I just remembered HSOL has this sub which shows those silly numbers like two they had in their table for this month. Jason said ( I asked about them) it is for about 6 months. Do we still want this?

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My guess is HSOL is still better if those low numbers are for low shipments. My questions have been covered in this thread. Basically it is about what declared value represents and if it can vary and what it most likely represents. One idea that crossed my mind was that could it be the value of the goods on the domestic market. Mono has higher price than multi in China. Japan gets more mono, therefore they get higher "value" declared..?

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I summarized this in the e-mail to SZ. I will provide details as soon as I get them. Please continue to ask I will do the best I can to make us be on the top.

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Hi there this is the summary:

Surely the path to easy understanding of this, is not "easy"

Enjoy

1. What Global ASP data:

Global ASP data is at customs’ quotation for the shipments to specific destinations as offered by the corporations, exporting product. Since large companies have subsidies at the destination, the quotation amount may be distorted (value) however many data points shows distinctive patterns. The best methodology is to relate actually announced pricing (during conference calls) versus the weighted averages of volumes shipped to understand gap levels and whether they have signs of permanent discount levels.This is the best way to model the formula

2. Why there is such variance between companies example (Japan) below and

how do you explain it:

If the amount of shipment is small, accuracy level declines. Customs uses formula to account for freight and currency exchange, error potential is exceptionally high for amounts which are small (particular using air freight)

In the table (horizontal- Japan quotes all companies) Jinko’s shipment of 0.49W and LDK Solar’s shipments of 1.01MW does not represent a mainstream pricing. Small shipments will have a tendency to have higher price.

In case of extremely low price, consider Canadian and Yingli, you have to consider following aspects. First one (YGE) is an OEM provider, therefore pricing is controlled and originates with domestic market (China). Second CSIQ, the receiver in this case is the actual subsidiary of the company; therefore product is received as inventory (cost). There is an element of taxation which has to be considered in the pricing in this case. (Looking for more answers)

3. What does this price do not include: my example cost of shipment.

Price quoted is FOB- “Under the Incoterm standard published by the International Chamber of Commerce, FOB stands for "Free On Board", and is always used in conjunction with a port of loading.[1] Indicating "FOB port" means that the seller pays for transportation of the goods to the port of shipment, plus loading costs. The buyer pays cost of marine freight transport, insurance, unloading, and transportation from the arrival port to the final destination. The passing of risks occurs when the goods pass the ship's rail at the port of shipment.” Mine

Quoting from CSIQ 20-F

“A majority of our contracts provide that products are shipped under the terms of

free on board, or FOB, ex-works or cost, insurance and freight, or CIF. Under

FOB, we fulfill our obligation to deliver when the goods have passed over the

ship's rail at the named port of shipment. The customer has to

bear all costs and risks of loss or damage to the goods from that point. Under

ex-works, we fulfill our obligation to deliver when we have made the goods

available at our premises to the customer. The customer bears all costs and

risks involved in taking the goods from our premises to the desired destination.

Under CIF, we must pay the costs, marine insurance and freight necessary to

bring the goods to the named port of destination, but the risk of loss of or

damage to the goods as well as any additional costs due to events occurring

after the time the goods have been delivered on board the vessel, is

transferred to the customer when the goods pass the ship's rail in the port of

shipment.

Quoting from Yingli

For sales of PV modules from PRC

to foreign customers, delivery of the products occurs at the point in time the

product is delivered to the named port”. This is essentially the same as CSIQ

Jason

explains further, so this is FOB. In other trading forms, like CIF the cost of shipment is deducted by the customs. Another words this price is shipment cost free.

4. Does price to US is artificially lowered to avoid tariffs. ( I had to

ask)

All are using cells from other locations when shipping to the US he doubts that would be played out as it is on constant watch.

OT: Jason, thinks that Renesola and Canadian are best two companies

today to invest. He sees profits for both

That's it for now. Still waiting for HSOL data

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Good info, Odyd. While it takes some time to digest, its very valuable data. (...and thanks also for the OT input....interesting comment about SOL and CSIQ!).

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