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Jinko just confirmed maintaining 1.2GW in-house capacity exiting 2013, so what was 1.5GW derived from? From them projecting 1.2GW to 1.5GW 2013 shipments? Or is additional 300MW are for projects in addition to 1.2GW? Thanks.

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My information was stated as expansion but I guess they use this interchangeably for outsourcing and in-house versus external capacity.

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They had committed to purchase manufacturing equipment up to 1.5 gw capacity already last year, but were able to negotiate a deferral with their supplier when growth slowed. It looks like they don't need to take those ordered 300 mw in 2013 either.

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Did you see Japan and US, we talking some 40% moves. Sales are good but I am concerned with the declared values per watt. Since this is new to me it maybe some time before we get the idea what this means.

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Yes Japan and US surging. With the ASP data it's all over the map it's really tough to pinpoint exact figures. The ASP measured for each country varies dramatically for each company

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Yes it does. I was worried that declaration would be out of whack, but there is a common sense in it. Too bad we have only March. I think that having data handy one needs to get the weighted shipments per country and calculate the average overall. Things do make sense to me but if run the averages it looks like ASP is lower in Q1 than Q4. However I think declaration value could be lowered purposely.

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What do you think about the shipments, awesome right? I am sorry guys this is exciting but I got to get some sleep I have been working on this all day long. It was like pulling teeth out of the SZ>. I hope you will enjoy it and we can have nice discussion. We need to process the data as well. Talk to you in the morning and looking to your feedback as well.

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Yes it does. I was worried that declaration would be out of whack, but there is a common sense in it. Too bad we have only March. I think that having data handy one needs to get the weighted shipments per country and calculate the average overall. Things do make sense to me but if run the averages it looks like ASP is lower in Q1 than Q4. However I think declaration value could be lowered purposely.

You think there is anyway Solarzoom would give us a sampler of like 2 companies ASP data from Jan and Feb so we have reference points so we know know where March data falls in comparison?

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Wow... Huge jump in exports... 15%. Japan and US surging, see almost no effect in shipment to Europe even though registration started march 6th. Very interesting

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Very interesting data. Will dig into it more later. Some questions first. Odyd, it would be nice to get some short manual page supplied with the data on how to read it. I'll give some examples of assumptions I'm making now, which would be nice to have confirmed or corrected by a manual page. First question is on the ASP value. I assume the data is based on customs declaration, i.e. declared MW and value of goods shipped out by companies. So it might not be actual price from transactions, although the declared value of goods in a container might be based on the average price of goods in that container that were sold pre shipment. But could it be based on something else like estimated market value or cost to produce&ship, at least when an actual transaction price is not available? I assume there's an incentment to declare as low value as possible from a toll cost perspective? For me it feels critical to know how correlated actual ASP is with the one listed (that's based on price per watt declaration value). Does SolarZoom have any idea about this to help us or is it up to the buyer to assess the relevance of the data for his purpose? Some examples of what stands out. Italy ASP between 50 and 57 cents. The 5 cents higher than peers ASP for Trina we saw in Q4 is hard to find in March data. Second question is on the markets. I look at the global ASP tab and say that I'm thinking of assessing Trina's and ReneSola's ASP in Germany. Now both have so little volume shipped there that it does not even show a MW number on the exports tab, even though this is the biggest market in Europe for them. So the guess becomes that Trina and ReneSola ships their goods targeted for Germany to Holland. Back on the ASP tab Trina has no German ASP and ReneSola has a strange number, probably because Trina sent none to Germany and ReneSola so little that there's too much uncertainty in the average number. So again, I guess that one has to turn to Holland to see an indication of the ASP in Germany for these two companies? I also assume that a global exports ASP (based on declared value) per company is straight forward to calculate by taking the average ASP of the market weighted by their shipments. This could provide a method of validating the accuracy of declared price per watt for actual ASP. I hope this doesn't sound like negative critique. It's not, it's great to have access to this inside data, I just want to increase my understanding of the data that will be the basis of my investment decisions. Are my assumptions above correct? Will there be some manual sheet to help with this?

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There might be some errors in this weighted average since I noticed now that some countries have MW but no ASP (like Suntech Germany), will have to adjust for this later. Plus others might not be exactly same for ASP and shipment (Denmark and France had no shipment, but had ASP).

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Re-checked. Suntech Germany was the only issue. Adjusted for this Suntech has 70.2 cents ASP.

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Guest Klothilde

Japan: with 320 of Chi shipments in march Q1 total installs will very likely top 1.5 GW imo. On track for 8 GW of installs in 2013 imo. Very strong Chin shipment growth in next months since local manufacturers must be at 100% utilization. US: huge surge. If march exports are maintained throughout 2013 very likely to top 5 GW in 2013 (1.75 from China, 2.5 from FSLR/SPWR, 0.75 others incl. CAN Europe: roughly 7% decline MoM. Way less than I had expected. I speculate lots is going to pre-clearance deposits in the ports and that custom clearance issues have not yet been fully resolved. Australia: Great showing of demand stability. Shatters the forecasts that predicted a sharp market decline. May have to revise slightly upwards. Greece: Noticeable slowdown. UK: Noticeable slowdown consistent with utility subsidy reduction on Apr. 1 Otherwise very stable and diversified demand coming from India and Israel. May have to up Israel. JASO: Rebound of Japan shipments in march, thus 25% of Q1 guidance roughly met with Japan mods shipments. Expect significant improvement in ASPs because of this. SOL, JKS, YGE all exporting in excess of production capacity in march. Strong export growth MoM for SOL and especially for JKS. Looks like JKS will have a blow away quarter.

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Explo a lot of questions. I do remember the same excitement and question condition before deliveries were considered by you. I simply do not know. I see this for the first time. I have to say to you that SZ is probably not well aware of what this all means. I will work with them to address this aspect. They had sent me a data from September for CSI. I am not sure if it helps but..... I will use private message to supply.

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Thanks, we (buyers) can combine efforts to estimate the accuracy that declared value data has for projecting actual ASP and maybe you can check with SZ as well. As you saw in my attachment the total exports ASP is given, so it should be possible to do some validation although timing of revenue recognition and domestic ASP complicates things. If accurate then it is major inside info we're sitting on (Trina-Jaso diff changing 15 cents between Q4 ASP and March exports ASP as one example). I will analyze further after looking at the additional data. I think things might look more weird at first glance before volumes are considered.

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I think some numbers are extracted for ASP as per country but shipment is packed into the "Others" segment.

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You're talking about the fact that Denmark and France are in ASP table, but not in the shipment table? The diff there might make the global ASP calculation a bit less accurate.

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I looked quickly at the CSI data. Very interesting. Observation: Big markets Europe (Holland), U.S. and Japan monthly ASP level and development is highly correlated. This is unexpected since in Q4 U.S. and Japan should have been significantly higher than Europe and in Q1 the difference shoulg have contracted. To me this looks more correlated to CSIQ cost trend than ASP. COGS of 63 in Q4 is trending down to 55+ in Q1. This trend applies for all markets and since cost trend is basically same for all (slight variation due to market product mixes though), but ASP trend should be very different for different markets and was not expected to decline from mid 60's to mid 50's as cost were. I strongly suspect that declared value is a function of production cost rather than selling price. If I'm right then the data looks much nicer for your new portfolio member CSIQ. :) If I'm right I also need to figure out if the value of the data is the same, higher or lower. Anyway conclusions on who is doing well becomes opposite. Jaso instead of having best ASP, has highest cost, for example.

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I love the energy in the room. I sent communication to SZ that I will ask a lot of questions. I ask them them for patience. So please be also patient with me. This is going to work for us, one way or another.

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JASO #1 Chinese in Q1 from deliveries. I agree with JKS assessment a blow out quarter.

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Explo consider this instead of going vertical on pricing Company across the countries go horizontal across the country, indifferent to company. For example if we exclude SOL at this 0.35 per watt, it looks like 0.76 per watt in Germany. This sounds strangely close to Solarbuzz. If you do this with Japan averages are about 0.70, US looks like 0.61 but this could be a tariff effect, so add 10% to it to counterbalance. India 0.62 but if you take bot h extremes out you have a 0.56 average. What do you think?

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what do you guys think about Global market leadership tab? This is a courtesy one for the pricing. It does show three best volume shippers for Q4, 2012 in addition to Q1. A bit of sweetener.

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