Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
dydo

CEDR Posts

Recommended Posts

This looks like a promo, I did for PV-Mag, general numbers and %. No detail. Perhaps more than I would say.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have not received reply from SZ on the new format. I think that for benefit of all, inlcuding just small investor, I will keep Export data as a seperate report and the big format $200, will be made only for few interested parties. I wll keep you updated on those events. When I hear more from Solarzoom.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi new buyers, anyone have questions in regard of data? We are also discussing potential of bigger format, including other concepts. I would not mind to know your thoughts on it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest spinvestor

Thank you once again for making the information available. Based on an initial glance, it seems to me that the Tier 1 players are continuing to increase market share and making good process on diversifying into new markets. As an investor in TSL, I am pleasantly surprised by the data over the past couple months. They, as well as others, seem to be less reliant on domestic sales, which suggests they will have higher than expected realized Q1 ASPs due to improved sales mix. Though some of those export sales could be from existing inventory, TSL has reduced their inventory levels over past couple quarters so I think there is increased likelihood that they will have significantly more sales outside of China in Q1 2013 vs Q4 2012. Additionally, looking at exports as a % of monthly capacity, it seems TSL may also be close to running at 100% utilization as this does not consider domestic sales. All in all, I think the data shows that TSL may benefit from both reduced COGS as a result of higher utilization as well as higher ASPs due to improved sales mix. Non-EU Exports have increased substantially over last few months, which is also a very positive trend. Though overall exports were down from Jan, non-U exports were up month over month

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Spinvestor, I sent the PDF, I hope you will like it. Thanks for thoughtful summary. The only watch out, these are deliveries. Meaning sales may not be materialized or rather equal to deliveries, particularly when sent to ports of Holland and Belgium . This is how PDF I sent can be useful in application of the deliveries, vs. sales global and domestic. Certainly the level of deliveries by TSL is a positive shift from Q4 nevertheless. Those who see strong sales in Japan and US and Australia will extract better ASP. This is why I heavily pursue the idea of ASP with Solarzoom. One look and we can see if there is pricing differentiation. Another watch out here, declaration could be skewed if its is done to lower value or it is careless. ps. Klothilde, based on data from SZ I was told that JA sent average of 250W modules to Japan in Janaury and 230 in February, but I was cautioned to draw a conclusion on it as not being reflective of dropping the efficiency in products. Nevertheless I am rather excited that January shipment was having such a high average.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Odyd, have you considered advertising the monthly reports in banner or display ads on the site? (you may already be doing this, but I dont recall seeing them, if so). Honestly, if more people had any idea how valuable the data in these reports was, they would gladly buy them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I advertise already on the site and on the forum. I have even paid Google AdWords to do so. I wrote articles for PV-Mag, advertising it there. I feel I done a lot to make people aware. It is a tough sale. I guess spending $27 is more horrifying than knowing, what is happening. I truly cannot explain this phenomenon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest rational_judgement

Interesting data... I am pleased to see that many are delivering close to their capacity. But how do you base your investment decision from this data? All I see is top five/six are separating from the pack, as far as export is concerned. I am not asking you to divulge the ASP information, but if someone has access to that report, can you combine both the reports and predict who might be closer to break-even? I am not discrediting the report, I just want to know how you are using this data.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, first of all, you looking at one month, so you have a somewhat limited depth. If you looking in area of the guidance, which is the most important thing first, you would gauge how deliveries line up with it. If you were invested in LDK, I suppose you would be disappointed in level of shipments there, but if you have like I have YGE, I feel semi-comfortable that shipments are at high levels. Second you look at the markets. We know what sort of ASP markets have out there. Say Japan, US are high ASP. Australia, South Africa etc. What is the delivery level there, is an observation to make for each company. Now, you can see how companies move against each other. Let's not kid ourselves, they ship modules, more they ship, the greater chance of earning revenue, so it is something to watch. Development of solar markets, is another. There is ASP data available, but I have not got Solarzoom to provide us with it yet. I think there is a debate over the critical aspect of it. I am having trouble to get this info for this reason, despite a lot higher pricing level. Since most of us here have seen 4 to 5 months of it, we have an idea how things play in results. This is not a science yet, but beats guessing and assumption. Let me know if this makes sense. Of course this is my experience. Perhaps others can share their own.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest rational_judgement

Thanks odyd. It will be interesting to see if export in March fell of a cliff, or the recent weakness is nothing more than manipulation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
March, I am told there is a slowdown in shipments to Europe since registration. Part of the issue is logistical, which causes shipments to be held at customs. Some detail however speaks of stoppage of shipping to Europe by smaller and mid-size manufacturers. In one of the threads I suggested that as in case of the US tariffs, the EU could benefit global companies. Nobody who has 249% tariffs, ships to the US today. If the EU uses individual company approach, it could be another blessing in disguise.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Klothilde

Thanks Odyd. One question: What specific transaction do the volumes in the export data refer to? Do they refer to the clearing of customs at the departing port or to the clearing of customs at the arrival port? or s.th. else? I read in another Fred that data refered to the delivery time point, but wanted to clarify. THX.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Klothilde you hit me like a load of bricks with your question. This is Chinese customs data so it means to deliver goods to anyone in Europe takes basically 30 days. So it is sensible to assume that December delivery to February is the delivery for Q1, into Europe. To the US depending on the port it can take 20 to 30 days. So for all we know we could be already looking on total Q1 deliveries From December to February, and some small in part in March. To Japan takes 5 days only, South Africa 21 days etc. Australia 15. So putting this complexity into a formula and we have a good expectation. I would say that everything in first and second month of the Q, works for shipments for that Q, probably half of last month of the Q and half of month prior of the Q, would be the rest. I am going to look at that and try to make sense out of it for Q1. I think we are looking at Q1 deliveries in full view, adjustment for closer locations.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

More so how revenue is recongized using delivery concept, which would support the theory from prior post. This is Yingli's statement "Revenue is recognized when persuasive evidence of an arrangement exists, delivery of the product has occurred, the fee is fixed or determinable and collectability is reasonably assured. These criteria as they relate to the sale of the Company’s products or services are as follows: For all sales, the Company requires a contract or purchase order which quantifies pricing, quantity and product specifications. For sales of PV modules from PRC to foreign customers, delivery of the products occurs at the point in time the product is delivered to the named port of shipment, which is when the risks and rewards of ownership are transferred to the customer. For sales of PV modules to domestic customers in PRC or by foreign subsidiaries, delivery of the product occurs at the point in time the product is received by the customer, which is when the risks and rewards of ownership have been transferred."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is Trina's definition:

"We recognize revenues for product sales when persuasive evidence of an arrangement exists, delivery of the product has occurred and title and risk of loss has passed to the customer, the sales price is fixed or determinable, and the collectability of the resulting receivable is reasonably assured. Our sales agreements typically contain our customary product warranties but usually do not contain post-shipment obligations or any return or credit provisions. We recognize sales of our PV modules based on the terms of the specific sales contract. Generally, we recognize sales when we have delivered our products to our customers’ designated point of shipment, which may include commercial docks or commercial shipping vessels."

So I think it is fair to say that reaching a destination would allow us to assume that delivery is in fact a shipment. The risk here that some of those could be to own warehouses.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest JulyWebb

ps. Klothilde, based on data from SZ I was told that JA sent average of 250W modules to Japan in Janaury and 230 in February, but I was cautioned to draw a conclusion on it as not being reflective of dropping the efficiency in products. Nevertheless I am rather excited that January shipment was having such a high average.

Odyd, I'm not sure what you mean by being cautioned to draw a conclusion on it as not being reflective of dropping the effiency in products. Can you explain? Thanks:)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sorry, it is rather confusing statement. I was cautioned not to draw a conclusion that it was poorer efficiency. It simply reflected a different product mix.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest JulyWebb

Thanks I'm really glad I bought the data. I can help you promote the shipment data on Yahoo MB's if you like. Done Marketing all my life. All I need is just the Bits of Facts you'd want stated I and I'm sure others here would like to help. BTW I own a lot of JASO. Many of the Chinese Solar Companies are being priced as if bankruptcy is around the corner. I think it's a bit overdone. This Board is so much better to Yahoo's. Their is No comparison None whatsoever!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Very well put, July Webb, You will probably have problems promoting this site on the yahoo msg boards, given yahoo censoring policies, but try anyway! Nice to have you onboard....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thank you. I do not even visit yahoo any more. If you would like to go probably the best promotion is to say what you like about it. Please do not disclose detail numbers etc, I am glad you find this useful.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I did my analysis using 50% of December deliveries and Jan and FEB combined to see how this shows against guidance. YGE, TSL, CSIQ and SOL, should not have any issues meeting guidance, this is not even seeing March 50% shipment contribtuion. JA at 70% of its guidance say being 300MW of modules still needs to work a bit. Good news that delivery to Japan is only 5 days on a ship :) I posted also explanation on CSIQ board about module shipment recognition so you may find this interesting. Also 20-F is out for Trina, and their cash flow for operation activities was negative 178M. I was naive to see them pull out $266M loss.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Klothilde

@odyd: I think it is impossible to derive anything from the wattage number alone. 250W is ok for standard poly modules while 230W sucks for a standard poly module. So yes, the average is just the result of a product mix. Anyhows, in the case of JASO it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out they are shipping the high efficiency modules to Japan and the lower efficiency modules to China. They even suggested this in a CC.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest solarcat

May I ask who is "CNBM (CTIEC)Solar"? And why such a large percentage increase for TSL and SOL shipments from January to February?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest solarcat

Thank you. From their website I can't tell that they are a PV manufacturer. So are they a Chinese reseller? I'm trying to understand their one month wonder in Jan.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They have a capacity, but part of their order in January was outsourced from Yingli I was told (50MW) and I assume other companies. There are not the first name coming to mind. While their presence is there associated with delivery, I think it is save to assume they are EPC more than anything at this point, and centered on Ukraine.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest solarcat

Interesting. So YGE's shipments (and others) could be higher, and I'm not talking shipments to China here, if modules are outsourced and then shipped abroad.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would say revenues would be higher based on OEM arrangements, where YGE provides the service. Their shipments would be higher if they outsourced their production to someone else , like SOL's deal from today's news. Global manufacturing would not be in a data of course. Another scenario, If for example company listed in export data did OEM for Yingli, we would not be able to tell it from the data, if they ship direct to destination, instead of consolidation at Yinlgi's. I am sure I would know at one point who does that anyway, and disclose it accordingly, but it could be missed at first.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just compared February data to January. JKS' yearly capacity stated at 1,500 MW. Is that correct? I know they exited the year with 1,200 without any expansion plans. Did they ever announce it? I know I'm not supposed to state numbers since some that bought February might not have bought January. So I'll try to be as vague as possible. Did CSIQ state that they will increase yearly capacity to 2,100 from that other number? And HSOL actually shown as decreasing slightly. Any color on that too, anyone? Thanks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I may be responsible for variable. Most of the time, I leave the numbers as I get them in area of capacity, unless I see clearly that companies report them differently. So what you see is what I got, unless I had to make adjustment, which I believe CSIQ was.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.



  • Donate

    Please donate to support this community. We appreciate all donations!

    Donate Sidebar by DevFuse
  • Upcoming Events

    No upcoming events found
  • Forum Statistics

    • Total Topics
      32
    • Total Posts
      91,359
  • Who's Online (See full list)

×
×
  • Create New...