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It will be interesting to see June and July. May will likely trend as April, with bets on no retroactive tariffs and import/export as much as possible before June 6. Big players stocking in warehouses in anticipation of higher ASPs in June. In June and July it is more diffucult for big suppliers. Do you continue to build stock at higher cost (11.8% hit) in anticipation of even higher cost and thus higher ASP in August to December or do you reduce the stock at this 11.8% higher ASP for a nice GM boost? I think June will be slow as everyone will await results of negotiations to understand best tactic. In July a lot of exports could happen instead, since it is likely than any outcome will be designed to raise EU ASP a bit more than these temporary 11.8%. Btw, JKS and SOL had big exports to unlisted destinations. Anyone know where those deliveries went?

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I think that in June and July you will see nothing going to Europe. All the Antwerp inventory will be selling off, tariff free. I am going to ask Jason to maybe go to an effort and provide us with detail for "others" (just 9 US-listed) in a form of separate table broken down and drop off anyone under 5MW from overall list. This way we may never see DQ or LDK, but what you guys think would it be better? After all US-listed are trendsetters. I did not get anything on the cell from him

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Guest spinvestor

Given the potential for price floors, curious what you guys think about the shift to mono over next few months. Seems Trina, JA Solar and Yingli are taking this path, do you think other Tier 1s will be following suit?

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Guest JulyWebb

Stockpile could make June a bit slower but I would think another rush comes in July before August decision timeline. I believe the urgency exist to stock pile on Chi-Solar for the entire years need.. If I was the buyer that's what I do & atleast you know what your getting. Later you don't 2 or 3 percent can mean a lot unless you believe there's a strong change of no tariffs.

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Following is just for your eyes only, no discussion on other threads: Cell for April only YGE shipped to Fr about 0.02MW, and to JP 0.05MW JKS to Canada 0.29MW, STP 0.25MW to HK, 0.31MW to JP, 0.025MW to Korea OT comment again only for your eyes: We are now watching the market active in EU. the demand in one month will be very high, the price has boosted about 0.03 Euro, and the customers need to pay another 0.05 Euro if they need to clear the goods. Trina and YGE get the most benefit from this since they have the most EU stock. the 2nd tier makers also sold out their capacity in one month.

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Are you freaking out yet? GADP is almost exactly as the ASP for Jinko in Q1. Wow.

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Check the inventory increase in JKS, they need to include JKS in stockpiling in Europe. Those guys are either lucky or very smart, maybe both.

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Are you freaking out yet? GADP is almost exactly as the ASP for Jinko in Q1. Wow.

I'm happy because the more dialed in this data gets the easier it will be for us to confidentially place our bets....

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Who's been stock piling in Europe? TSL, YGE and da Li brothas. I'd say the guys we normally look to for answers about the industry condition are the ones that have been betting on Europe. Similar guys with JKS replaced by CSIQ have bet on US too. I have the GADP data for April and trend before and know what that meant. HSOL and JASO are more low key partners enabling of other brands. CSUN also went for Europe, but might have been more part of long-term strategy than short-term tariff based allocation tactic.

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Based on what SZ is saying and the JKS guidance for Q2, I think that JKS could bring profit if the amount of distribution shifts to 400MW of modules and 0.08 per watt becomes 0.11 in gross margin, they could break even or have very small loss

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Thanks for cell data. Did SOL have zero shipments or SZ had no data on them? Of the other guys we don't know exactly who have secured tolling capacity in EU, so we don't know who would start sending cells ahead of tariffs.

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Cool! I don't have the data here, will look at this later. I crunched some GADP yesterday and saw US going parabolic in April, crossing Japan which flattened its decline. Huge volumes going to Europe have sent all other markets higher, except Japan. India up a lot. China up a lot and US going nuts. The US supply enabler is now getting tight, since it need to enable the 4 fold bigger EU market in 2H instead, while Japan is pulling its Taiwanese cells too. Taiwan cells and US panels are quickly becoming expensive. 2012H2 EU and US were ASP dogs and Japan was king. 2013H2 EU and US will be ASP kings and APAC market convering to the easily supplied markets with mediocre ASP.

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I sent what I got. I posted here that SOL is buying millions of wafers. If cells go on their behalf they would not come from SOL but cell maker. That would be the case for everyone else.

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Right the cell shipment would likely go directly from the cell toller to the module toller (Jabil in Poland) rather than back to SOL first. Thanks.

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Japan will be king of APAC, but probably not the world in 2013H2. Anyway US crossing Japan is still GADP, so we'll have to wait and see if this is confirmed for ASP. Note also that my analysis was on Solar9 only. Clear trend was EU flat, non-EU ASP up a lot (Japan decline stopped and rest is booming). Solar9 has not a lot of mono capacity, so they might have sent more multi than the average Japanese market and thus Solar9 Japan ASP might be lower than average.

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I do not feel that bad about my move in TSL now. It looks like they have around 300MW in Holland and that is not including May shipments, which could see some monster volume like 200MW per maker going to Holland. Someone has leaked to top players there will be no retroactive duties. The consensus leaving March was registration led to it. When they came out with 11.8%, I suppose SZ is telling that consumers will cover the tariff and volumes are amassing now. We have a small bonanza till august which bodes well with Q3 results. I think I have to change my view on June and July shipments to EU as they are expected to be big with 11.8% and unknown starts with August.

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China ASP jumping dramatically higher! Big jump too over past 3 weeks. Very good sign! Other things I notice.... - SOL still hasn't broken into Japan - CSIQ completely dominating Japan with their highest ever shipments there - JASO another very low month in exports, their last 2 months combined close to what they did in march alone. Their shipments to Japan seem to be declining over past several months. - loophole in EU tariffs seems to be exporting through Croatia. TSL and YGE big shipments there.

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Following is the information I just received from SZ. This information is a bonus and should be treated as any data. Please keep it to the discussion here. This is not for publication on any other threads. I am not sure exactly what the declaration means as I am seeing volumes in May data. DE-Germany, NL-Netherlands, FR-France, CA-Canada, KR-SKorea, TW-Taiwan, HK-Hong Kong Declaration for (EU) LDK: the shipment to DE and NL are at end of April CSUN: before 5/9 STP: no EU shipment CSI: to Fr, stopped in the end of April. But start to declare from 5/29 again Rene: to NL, the time process is same with CSI(to Fr) JA: cell shipping is normal, 1 batch per week. Module shipping is not stopped so clear as other companies, still within 1 or 2 cargoes per week HSOL: shipment to the end of April Trina: don't know YGE: don't know JKS: don't know DQ: no EU shipment Cell info: I am not listing the one less than 0.1MW STP: 0.4MW to Kr, 0.39 to JP, 0.17 to HK Rene:13.86MW to De CSI:4.47MW to Ca, 0.06 to TW Hsol:2MW to Ca YGE:4.7MW to Ca Trina:2.66MW to Ca Rene:3.16 to SA Csun: 1.52 to Turkey JA Solar Shipments: Canada 12.3 Korea 10.78 Germany 6.9 India 5.32 Malaysia 1.01 Indonesia 0.78 Italy 0.71 Jordan 0.64 Mexico 0.25 Singapore 0.11 Others from JA are total in 0.07 some of the overseas OEM are made up by shipping a semi products to the third place, and are presented as a module in exporting data, not as cell what I don't know is about the cell, most of the cell shipment are not worried about the duties deadline, but the cell and wafer should be included right? Renesola shipped 200W mono to Philippines, Jason things it is not full module. JKS is up to something with them sharing ideas as brothers.

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Yes, interesting indeed. Check the bonus material. A bit of the spill but a lot of stuff you cannot find on Bloomberg.

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ReneSola needs to stop selling to India. Unless it is fake module, perhaps cells for outsourcing. Still Q2 combined pricing for SOL is moving into a right direction. Please let's not quote Q1 numbers just in case members have not purchased those pieces. I actually see 6.7% increase in prices for CSUN. If not flat then trend is up.

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Thanks. Do you know what the "De", "Ne", NL" etc. stands for? I'm guessing, but would be better to be sure.

Renesola shipped 200MW mono to Philippines

That's a lot of MW mono for one month. Any chance this would be the 200 MW mono wafer manufacturing equipment that they "disposed" recently?

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China ASP! Up from 0.585 to 0.655 for poly modules last 5 weeks. Croatia! Everything sent to arrive in EU after June 6 basically went to Croatia (tariff free until July 1), since they did not know what the tariff would be when they sent the goods in late May.

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Explo that is 200W mono modules, they went to Philippines. He thinks this is for outsourcing to be shipped to EU.

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I would say pretty sly. Some serious volumes went to Malaysia, Philippines, Chile is up there now. Jason tells me that anyone who sends wafer and cell to EU does not worry about the tariff? He claims they do not pay a levy on it (11.8%) .

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Does this group think that JA was a one trick pony during Q1? If their GM for module is debatable to a point of breakeven, than can they repeat the success with the cells again? They may gain some of the numbers from China, but they are not big players on a global scale.

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According to Bloomberg interview they said they will beat shipment guidance in 2Q. This must mean well over half their shipments are going to China. We are seeing spike in China ASP the last 3 weeks but that ASP increase will be realized in Q3 not Q2. What I don't like is their Japan shipments decreasing past couple months. Before touching JASO, personally I would like to hear their next CC. Let me add 1 more thing cell pricing seems to have topped and is reversing down, ATLEAST temporarily.

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Sure is. But they do not even send their cells to Japan? Exports for all EU stats: 66% April and 44% in May but a significant drop in volume as well. I would venture to say that drop was the EU cut off. Sure YGE and TSL are betting with EU, 56% YGE and 76% TSL, but I am including Croatia in it.

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Hmm, interesting, but wafer, cell and module processing all has to be done outside China so I wonder what the Li brothers are up to in Phillipines. If they're sending modules from China to Phillipines how does that fit in an outsourcing strategy. That Romanian play written about seemed weird, like it was local content requirement, wafer, cell and module all needed to be done outside EU so the article seemed strange.

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