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There is no growth for CSIQ and TSL, 1 to 2% YoY. JKS 26% YoY growth JASO 13% YoY

China needs to be pretty big for TSL to make its guidance, it sounds like China seem to be playing big role in Q2 for JKS and JASO. Q2 2015 is below Q2 2014 volume, not much but lower.

 

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I think we have come to the end of certain era. Normally a lot of people would be excited with last month CEDR, to know what to expect for the quarter. While weekend only 8 people downloaded it.

This brings the question for the next quarter. What further value this has for us, a lot of recent buys are move to the US stocks. Second with building factories outside of China, how accurately we can measure it.

Having 23 active CEDR members at 150 per quarter probably would suffice to continue for Jason, but would interest be there?

Edited by odyd

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I have nothing to the defend the value. Even our biggest contributors, Explo, Sunny are no longer post in volume, we are in vacation period. I am curious if there is a point to continue to run the forum? I have failed to manage a large scale membership and now without CEDR the largest financial backing is going to be gone.

 

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Among the members of CEDR we have long term supporters. What can be done to revive Solar investors, and how life would look like after the CEDR?

Objective would be to lower costs if we get more members?

I am open to the ideas,

 

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Yes, it seems to be that the largest (in terms of posts) contribution is coming from a couple of (non-CEDR) minute traders (with all the hourly charts).  I am not a daily trader, much less hourly/minute one. The "value" of those posts to me is obvious: "maybe it goes down from here" or "maybe it goes up". I follow every tick literally as this is my full job so I can see the direction changes. What is missing now is the fundamental "staff" we had in 2012-2014 (was absolutely crucial in those early years of late 2011 through early 2013). That along with some of those posters (who're no longer here or not posting or posting much less) is what's required.   

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The only way to bring people in is to make it more accessible. I cannot offer this for free, in fact there is a free forum out there. I am trying to scale down on the server cost, and see what this will do for the price. We have couple of years of bad weather in solar, where people lost interest as well.

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a lot of the board seem to be switching to US solars, me included.  This could be short lived.  Also with overseas plants going up the data is not quite as dialed in.  Still I think seeing shipments to Japan and see how emerging markets are evolving is valuable.  No matter what happens I would like to see the board in tact even if CEDR is available in one form or another.

Edited by Pop2mollys

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My "problem" is not with CEDR or with solarpvinvestor participation, it is with all the other *bleeping* investors in the market. 

As long as "there can be only one" winner in solar (SUNE, up until VSLR acquisition 9-10 days ago), what does it matter who is shipping what, where, and for how much...?

Actually knowing something about solar has cost me a fortune! (especially counting opportunity cost).  Very frustrating.

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My objective is to keep this board on Pop.  We have a legacy of saving people money using CEDR, but we had also success avoiding Suntech, Yingli, ReneSola and SunEdison now. I would argue that we held steadfast when world was collapsing in Canadian Solar, when technicians were selling. The point was won when CSIQ acquired RE.

CEDR will or perhaps already became less relevant. We care not as much about modules sold but about plants build and yieldco. Still, we did not have a GTAT fiasco here like Contrarian Investor had. Many past members insisted it will happen to us as well.  I am proud it did not as we have solid business understanding.

Let's think what can we do to revive the forum after CEDR. No matter what happens on the market people will want to read about stocks, free of spam and radicals, arrogance and cursing.

Free option, it will not work as there is a cost.  Cost per person can be reduced by volume of participants. $3.99 made only 60 members. $9.99 makes 55 members. My current cost is about $400 CAD just hosting. It is a lot as I have dedicated server, fully monitored and lot of space and good processing power. I could potentially move it smaller cost and lose the quality of it. It is an option

We may make the forum readable to all registered (now only one solar news) and make couple popular threads including trading solar not visible, only if you pay. When you pay you can post.

Additional idea would be to have three moderators. Those people would have free access to the forum, they would moderate it in return, but also sort of take the financial baking into own hands. They would be part of the executive board, setting direction of the forum, fees, what to do etc. if the forum did not pay for itself, they would back her up with me and we would agree to take executive decisions together. I would remain Administrator to liaise software issues, hosting and other stuff.

Let me know about those ideas.

 

 

 

 

Edited by odyd

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I created opportunity for people to read about the US solar upon registration, they will be able to post for free in Yieldcos.

 

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Please do not renew CEDR invoices. When your subscription ends buy Solar Investors. At this point I am not planning to carry CEDR, but may sell the file separately.

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I added ability to post for Registered Members on the US companies. The paid forum is for Trading and Chinese companies.

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To improve buying experience I am going to offer a 6 months membership again.

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Just the reminder, I am unable to stop invoice generation for the CEDR Club, please do not pay this invoice. Choose Solar investors or 6 months solar investors, which offers a bit of discount.

The best way let your membership expire and then go to the store to pick your term.

Thank you

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I've been too busy to deep dive into Q2 CEDR yet, but after a quick look the US exposure for CN3 is massive. I haven't seen much discussion about this. CN3 front loaded their 2015 capacity to serve US in H1 probably expecting tariff revision to 17.5%. Any worry at all that this will cause issues for them? This is at least the worry preventing me from picking them up here on the fall.  The currency side the US exposure should be beneficial though.

 

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I see that namely in June. One possible scenario they were contracting at the price including lower tariff, but even on the level of assumption, this could have been only made for deliveries in Q3. Based on the lead time those June volumes would have been potentially at risk of being not profitable based on the changes not take place in July.

I think that negative impact would have been for Canadian the most. I think that expediency Jinko built Malaysian factory tells me that they wanted to compete with peers free of tariff on the eve of the reduction. Finally since the customs would have collected tariff upon entry, I doubt those volumes would have been sold with the hope of crossing the border on the moment tariff reduction was in place.

I think the different story would be if saw July volume. If companies sold at the new price level assuming lower percentage, then evidently only Jinko would survive this with pumping Malaysian modules. I sort of think their contractual obligations for the US would take from their oversea factories, and they were clear to put the factory in couple of months, contrary to TSL and JASO, which supports my view. This suggests they did not believe tariffs would be reduced, hence did not make hasty sales or so I hope. Or at least they had a backup plan where both CSIQ and TSL perhaps did not. I think TSL could be seeing more pressure than Canadian if they managed to find a supply of cells outside of TWN and China. CSIQ 's cost could be the negative factor.

 

Edited by odyd

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