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I am also investigating lack of UK prices. I contacted SZ today. I did not realize until now they are missing.

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ReneSola, nice job on GADP, Jinko is also better. JA wow!

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I think those who don't believe in retroactive tariffs have allocated more for Europe pre June and more for US, APAC and ROW from June and rest of year. This is evident for TSL, YGE and SOL, while others decided to move focus away from Europe earlier.

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Please review your India price for those who sold to UK as there is a mix up.

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It is amazing how the four companies are becoming so large in deliveries even in comparison to March. The pricing stability across the data and some notable increases in some cases. If it was not for EU tariff threat it would be awesome Q2. Then again European volume most likely artificially driven.

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Nice double digit growth MoM. Also smaller guys coming out stronger. 56% US based versus 60% Q1. Some of the small all volume sent to Europe.

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CSIQ highest export ever to Japan. This data is great gives you clear cut picture who as presence there and who is still trying to get there foot in the door. I was looking to see SOL finally make that break into Japan market.... But they haven't really yet. The European effect is really magnified this month. Maybe just coincidence but those who are dominating Japan very low shipments to Europe while those with small to no presence in Japan overloaded European shipments.

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JASO very low shipments this month.... 29 out of 37MW exported to Japan? Only 37MW exported so Im guessing greater shipments went to china?

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This is why July needs to get the data. They are selling modules on negative margins and seem to be shipping a lot to China. This is where the investment thesis of holding stock in JASO has an additional risk.

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Please review your India price for those who sold to UK as there is a mix up.

Can you clarify what we need to do? Is the India ADP wrong?

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I think July sold out of JASO, according to her holdings she has none, I must have missed that. Anyways that JASO number really stood out to me. Holding CSIQ I'm very happy to see monster numbers to Japan. Great shipments with no reliance on Europe.

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I already sent you a PM with file sorted properly, so you do not have to do anything.

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In my article I suggest that April volume to Europe could be under retroactive tariffs. Wasn't registration suggesting this? Unless they are planning to get the pricing above their expected tariff payment, it looks almost desperate.

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What is everybody's view on HSOL. Looking at this data and the current price, is it not attractive?

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I like the company but the stock is another story, heavily manipulated, hard to break off from it. As it turns out my editor has not been able to get to my article. So I will not submit. I proposed it to PV, but asked for top news spot. I never asked for it before so they may not do it. If I get lucky PV-M will print the story. If not I will show it on our pages.

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Odyd, did you make sense of ADP data now after Q1 reports? HSOL give best details and have relative low China volumes. I have a hard time seeing much correlation, since both ASP and COGS were up while ADP was significantly down. Also both you and Pop said you saw that JASO would surprise from ADP data. Did you mean delivery data (where high Japan volume was evident), because for JASO we also saw lower ADP in Q1, but higher ASP? Or did I look at ADP wrong (I've attached pics of results from my module previously in this thread)? I'm still confused about how to read this data..

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I think I put my opinion in the PM on this topic. The way data id declared has to do with individual companies. I am looking at this information in relationship to patterns each company has exhibited versus reported ASP. Some have serious gaps, some have no gaps. Since we in the March thread I cannot comment on April, but I see trends in there now, which I view as positive. We have 7 months of deliveries, and it becomes rather solid to understand those figures and their impacts. I think the curve of learning is not achieved yet for GADP.

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So what's your conclusion from HSOL Q4 and Q1 GADP and ER reports? This company has the most clear report and focus on exports. Yet, I'm confused. Is this a company where you don't see pattern? Which patterns have you established for other companies? I use this thread, since it covers 6 months of data to discuss, while new thread is just one month. I'll have new stabs at this, but just wanted to see if someone else had had some progress.

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My conclusion there is no conclusive answer to the relationship between ASP and GADP as I am new to this data and its data points. I have the data, but I do not know all factors of it and I do not have an experience to read it. Few points: 1. Like ASP, each company has own way to do GADP 2. The relationship between those two points are not clear because the way info is reported on GADP (it fluctuates prone to error) 3. GADP is the pattern on its own. When you measure a pattern consistently you can tell if goes up or down (positive) 4. I believe if you use simple markers you can estimate ASP, but there is always an error. It would be naive to assume we can determine ASP. ASP is not mechanism of statistics, it is a mechanism of market demand, the channel and ability to sell. I think looking at March and April you can see what is happening. This is the benefit. Wanting to see ASP in GADP is like trying to see "shipments" in deliveries. Always suggestive but always erroneous.

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I received some interesting, non-binding info about efficiency. I do not knwo the method, but this is what it is. It is free to you guys. JA 1.all its Japan shipment is mono, for West and Toshiba OEM 2. the highest 156*60 is 270W by mono. poly is 260W, but for sample only CSI the highest 156*60 is 265W by mono, and 255W by poly Rene the highest 156*60 is 265W by mono, and 255W by poly, and 260W by poly HSOL I can't tell if the module is mono or poly, but the highest one is 260W with only few quantity STP 250W and 300W is the highest. Most are to Australia(250W) and US(300W) CSUN the highest 156*60 is 270W for mono(less than 300 pieces), 255W for poly I can see only part for others TSL has 260W poly I can't see too much detail for YGE and JKS Cheers

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April data is not very usable for modelling until we get Q2 actuals, since it should not have impacted Q1 results right? My point is that now that we have Q1 ER reports we have 2 quarters of GADP and actuals for ASP and COGS and can do the correlation analysis. If we find a correlation pattern we can construct a model based on it and use that model to read the April data. You said that your Q1 ER trades were based on the GADP data, so I'm wondering how your model works and if the ERs confirmed it. Or did you mean it was based on the exports delivery data? It is interesting, since you were spot on in your ER trading. Thanks for your updated sheet by the way. I have not looked into that in detail yet, so please reference things in there if I should look for model there. As mentioned I'll have another stab when I get time, just want to check if some had a moment of clarity from reading the Q1 ERs.

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Guest Klothilde

Thanks . Interesting to see that JA only ships mono to Japan!

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I used the file and bought and sold on it. This is why I still hope for JKS. This not a science but art, explo. I used both delivery and GADP. Review my recent file from PM and we can discuss details.

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Ok. I see how delivery data together with ASP data for different regions that we know already from for example IHS (like Japan 70 cts, China 55 cts etc.) gives inside hints. The company specific GADP contribution to the picture is yet to be revealed. I guess I'll have the first stab at it.

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Guest JulyWebb

With SOL having the outsourcing arrangements, I find peculiar they are pushing big Dutch/EU shipments that late in a game. Something is off here. I see CSIQ "tricking " the system with Croatia (if this works), but I am surprised nobody else seem to be on it. Yingli and specifically TSL reeks of desperation. Perhaps they think tariffs will start with the date of June 6th. Thoughts?

After reading TSL Q&A the question was asked did you ship prior to June 6'th & with maybe some of 3/rd Qtr. will be shipped before as well.

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what about registration. The had them registered in March, and only start tariffs in June? I doubt it. I think they want to luck out. The fact there are two schools, CSIQ and TSL school, tells me that some are more secured outside of Europe and others not. Those with little channels elsewhere like Trina, and a huge volume like YGE to hold up to, JKS last ditch effort to push modules overseas or live in China mostly are risk to me. I hope nothing happens on June 6th, but if it does tough.

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Guest JulyWebb

My understanding JA is working on a project development from the Q&A in China. Their shipments to Japan don't look all that spectacular for this month.

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JA has a lot of it going on in China. However, their margins do not make her profitable in modules. What we do not see in module data is cell data. It could be a complete riot. What we see is that GM from cells is carrying the company right now. Nothing wrong with it just sayin

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