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explo

Income and Balance-Explo's Thread

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Holy crap, almost 40% spike in two days. But I guess the word must be out that pvinsights price swings can be forecasted based on ppi100 trade data, what do think? Anyway it is amazing that pvinsights price data can trigger a market cap increase in the order of zillions!

Don't think that's the case. REC exploded a matter of minutes after pvinsights was updated... Everyone on this board expected spike based on ppi100 but general public didn't know till it hit pvinsights...

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This is dangerous for CSIQ.

This also dangerous for most Chinese solars including JKS who buys a lot of spot poly. Even with longer term contracts for the bulk of poly used for big boyz these will be re negotiated higher per their contract as spot prices explode. There is only a couple of players that have in house poly that also provide module....these are.... 1.SOL 2. LDK 3. DQ LDK took a lot of poly offline and their module sales and quality are very low. Just look at their export data it's absolutely pitiful. DQ I'm not sure about quality of module but they sell very very little. On the other hand SOL has plenty of in house poly to make all their module in house. They have 10000MT by end of 1Q, talk about management timing this ramp up perfectly! Their module sales are exploding and they have some of the highest rated if not the highest rated module on market, based on tests and user reviews explo posted.From their last CC... Solar Module Business ReneSola delivered 145.3 MW of solar modules, of which 101.7 MW were Virtus modules, in Q3 2012, down slightly quarter over quarter due to seasonality. For Q3 2012, the Company's total solar module selling cost was approximately US$0.65/W, slightly lower compared to Q2 2012. Gross margin for the Company's solar module business was approximately 1.0% in Q3 2012. The Company expects to continue to reduce its solar module manufacturing costs through improvements in its manufacturing methods as well as a reduction in material costs and capitalize on the module business's higher margins relative to solar wafer production. In Q4 2012, the Company expects its total solar module production cost to decrease to approximately US$0.57/W and its shipments to increase to a range of 250 MW to 270 MW. Solar Wafer Business ReneSola reached its year-end blended non-silicon solar wafer processing cost target of US$0.15/W in Q3 2012, a decrease from US$0.17/W in Q2 2012 as a result of the Company's continued cost-reduction efforts. As announced last quarter, the Company has began manufacturing Virtus A++ wafers, which use new proprietary manufacturing technology that allows the Company to produce a larger number of high-efficiency solar wafers per ingot, in its newest facilities. The Company expects non-silicon solar wafer processing cost in these new facilities to reach US$0.11/W by the end of 2012. Overall, the Company expects to further drive down its blended non-silicon solar wafer processing cost to US$0.12/W by the end of 2012. Polysilicon Production In Q3 2012, ReneSola produced approximately 1,175.7 metric tons ("MT") of polysilicon, an increase from approximately 1,119.4 MT in Q2 2012. At the end of Q3 2012, the Company had a polysilicon production capacity of 4,000 MT. The Company expects polysilicon production capacity to reach 10,000 MT by the end of Q1 2013 through the completion of Phase II of its polysilicon production plant. On November 1, 2012, the Company temporarily halted polysilicon production to upgrade its facilities and equipment, as well as integrate Phase II with Phase I. Trial production for Phase II is expected to begin in January 2013. ReneSola's internal polysilicon production cost decreased to approximately US$23.57 per kilogram ("kg") at the end of Q3 2012, compared to approximately US$25.80/kg at the end of Q2 2012, as a result of improvements in the Company's manufacturing techniques. The Company expects its polysilicon production facilities to have a polysilicon production cost below US$18/kg by the end of Q1 2013.

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Guest solar123

Pop, Thanks for the post. As a long suffering SOL holder, I hope this translates into a steady rise in share price.

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Guest greensolar

very funny,,, I don't really read much on SA except for investinghobo.. Most are gutter trash but I like to post articles that can get debates going....

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Guest mena

GCL is doing FBR granular polysilicon. They said in their 2012 anual report that they have successfully produced granular polysilicon from Silane gas in September. Cost to below $10/kg is refering to FBR polysilicon. Siemens cant reach such low levels yet, batch vs flow. "We successfully produced silane gas products with electronic grade on September 2012 and successfully produced quality granular silicon with silane method and our manufacturing lines have met the world-class advanced standards for the same in January 2013." "Developing silane gas and FBR granular silicon technology." http://www.gcl-poly.com.hk/uploadfiles/down/1363263720_4fbYTfCyGc.pdf

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Easier to lower cost (especially electricity according to REC), but harder to reach puritity. Having both should be optimal as REC claims mixing chunk and granular lowers ingot growth costs.

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Guest mena

REC had a target to reach $8/kg cash cost and with SG&A inlcuded $11/kg if they had a FBR plant in China.

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Guest nanofrogfish_spf

OMG that’s Horrible!...just totally Horibble! If CSIQ’s costs start spiking for the next year or two, FSLR’s panels might actually be competitive again...

So sell CSIQ...sell...sell...sell

Buy FSLR and SOL...buy...buy...buy

Just trying to fit in and get along with everybody here...but I’ll have to turn a blind eye of course to not only all the project revenue and profits that will also be spiking upwards for the next 2 years, but also to the following statement from the SPVI article about CSIQ’s main alliance for wafers;

GCL believes that poly pricing will return to levels of $20 per kg, but will remain below $25 to keep other producers dormant. Another factor brought about by this poly producer was an indication of development of granular silicon technology using the FBR process, until now solely identified with Norwegian REC Group. Some of the costing methods see poly manufacturing per kg to drop to as low as $11 or $10, offering another batch of reductions for solar products.

I’ll just ignore what this all means for the future competitiveness of FSLR and SOL....and buy...buy...buy!

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Guest griffzinho

That $11/kg is cash cost. I'd suggest a look at this detailed presentation from REC. It's an excellent document and page 30 detailed their FBR cost roadmap, which is expecting all-in costs of $20/kg by Q4 2013. That doesn't look that revolutionary compared to Sol's projected $18/kg. GCL was at $20/kg+ in Q4 2012 too. I think GCL, REC, SOL will all have competitive poly, (amongst others), but as for Poly reaching $10-$11 all in cost I'm not sure. http://www.recgroup.com/PageFiles/6656/REC_investor_presentation_Feb%202013.pdf

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Guest mena

The only problem with REC not so revolutiionary total cost of $20/kg is their high depreciation. If you take out depreciation you have cashflow cost of $14/kg including SG&A. Thats amazying with a high cost location as USA. REC belives that a FBR plant in China with their tech would be at around $11/kg (cash cost + depreciation). If you would add SG&A to that it would probably add another $2.5/kg, leaving a totalt cost of $13.5/kg with everything except intrest. High depreciation because the plant is one of its kind with new tech and built in an overheated market in the US in 2008. SOL plant is built when the market has crashed and no one wont to build poly plants anymore givning them extreme low capex. Cost of $11/kg is very well possible for FBR plants in china. http://hugin.info/136555/R/1613036/513618.pdf

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Guest larryvand

Odyd has done a fine job in getting SPVI the site to visit for solar data. For those that know, it takes a lot of time and research to get all that done. And odyd is doing all that work essentially free. However, in certain areas we all need to contribute so that the site will always and timely have up to date data. It's what will make people come back for more. So with that in mind, I very much doubt that 130,000 MT of new poly capacity is going to be added in 2013. For example it shows LDK going from 25,000MT to 55,000MT. I mean how realistic is that? It also shows many companies "reported shutdown" but if they shutdown why isn't their poly taken away from the global supply? So what I'm asking is for this thread to be used as verifiable errors or adds or deletes in the global capacity happen, that we post the info in one place where odyd can get it and update the spreadsheet. I think having a correct and up to date view of the global capacity will be beneficial to everyone. Of course odyd will let us know if there is a better way to comment on verifiable errors, adds or deletes . Thank you.

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Good initiative. As far as I know that 30 kT LDK plant in inner mongolia is loi level, no broken ground or binding commitment, so it won't happen. I think most, not all, that could be cancelled or paused was so.

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